Genius Beats, Raises Guidance Once Again As NFL Live Betting Grows

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Genius Sports raised its full-year revenue and adjusted EBITDA expectations after topping guidance with a strong first quarter.

Genius now expects $82 million in adjusted EBITDA on $500 million in revenue for 2024, according to its earnings release Wednesday. That implies a 16.4% margin, up 3.5 percentage points from 2023.

“The first quarter was an excellent example to highlight each of these areas as we continue our wide-scale distribution of technology and value-enhancing products across the sports ecosystem,” CEO Mark Locke said on Wednesday’s call. “This is exactly how we have retained key league partnerships over the years and positioned our commercial model for sustainable growth and profitability and cash flow.”

This marks the ninth straight quarter the sports betting data supplier reported better-than-forecasted results. The stock was up slightly after earnings but eventually closed Wednesday down 0.7% to $5.38 on almost double its average daily volume.

Expecting similar growth next year, too

Genius did not specifically initiate guidance for 2025 though CFO Nick Taylor alluded to expectations for next year in his prepared remarks.

“Therefore, we are feeling very optimistic about 2025 as well,” Taylor said. “While we are not issuing formal guidance just yet, we believe our increase in 2024 guidance should be broadly representative of our structural momentum into 2025, as we expect continued revenue growth, margin expansion and increasing cash flow.”

Genius remains on a steady path to its target of an adjusted EBITDA margin higher than 30% over the long term, he added.

Genius sees NFL live bets pop

BetVision, which lets bettors at partner sportsbooks get their in-game NFL betting done without leaving the game stream, helped live betting revenue and handle grow last season.

Total live betting handle jumped 60% with its hold on those bets up 2 percentage points from the prior NFL season.

That helped overall US sports betting revenue grow 23% compared to last year. And, while Genius felt the same low hold pinch as other US operators during the quarter, its diversified geographies and businesses helped limit that impact, Taylor said

More BetVision content, customers coming

Adding more sports to BetVision is just as important as adding new sportsbook partners, Locke said.

“We are increasingly focused on rolling out new sportsbooks with the BetVision products,” Locke said. “If you watch this space, you’ll see news over the over the coming months on that. But at the same time, it can’t just be a one-trick pony. Therefore, what we’re actively doing is adding additional content to BetVision, additional products.

“We’ve got to get it right. So we’re being cautious about our execution. But again, that’s a big focus for the business.”

Locke noted the company was busy proving the concept to new partners during the first quarter. BetVision launched with four customers at the beginning of last NFL season:

Genius strengthens balance sheet with revolver

Genius reaffirmed that it will be cash-positive for the full year, which should only strengthen next year, Locke said. That means the business is in a strong enough place to potentially consider using some of that cash, either for acquisitions or share buybacks, he added.

“Therefore, we want to position ourselves for any opportunity that may arise in the future as we continue to mature as a public company,” Locke said. “As such, we are carrying out a few steps to optimize our overall financial flexibility with relatively low-cost capital.”

That includes a $90 million revolving credit agreement with Citibank and Deutsche Bank and a shelf filing to sell securities in the future.

Genius closed the quarter with $93 million on the balance sheet.