Renato Moicano steps back into the Octagon on Oct. 31, taking on unbeaten lightweight contender Tom Nolan in a five-round main event at Meta APEX in Las Vegas. Nolan arrives riding five straight wins and looking to crash the top 10, while Moicano returns off a second-round submission in April and is chasing another highlight finish to keep climbing the 155-pound ladder.
Below, LegalSportsReport lays out everything bettors need heading into fight week, including the full top-of-card breakdown and context on each fighter’s recent form. We’ll update this page with live prices from the sportsbooks as soon as they open the card.
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan (Oct. 31, 2026) odds
The promotion stays close to home for UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan, a card some outlets still tag as UFC Vegas 123 or UFC Fight Night 292. It runs Saturday, Oct. 31, at Meta APEX in Las Vegas, a week after UFC 333 wraps up in Abu Dhabi and roughly two weeks before UFC 334 lands in New York. Paramount+ streams the full event, with prelims starting at 5 p.m. ET and the main card following at 8 p.m. ET.
No. 12 Renato Moicano headlines against No. 14 Tom Nolan in a lightweight clash that carries real weight for both men’s divisional standing. Moicano, a veteran Brazilian finisher, enters off a second-round rear-naked choke of Chris Duncan this past April and is looking for another signature stoppage. Nolan, an Australian prospect who has yet to lose inside the Octagon, brings a five-fight win streak that includes a decision over Fares Ziam in June. A victory here would be the biggest of his career and a real statement in a stacked lightweight field.
Sportsbooks typically don’t post numbers on a UFC card this far in advance, and as of this writing, no major US books had opened lines on Moicano vs. Nolan or anything else on the Oct. 31 slate. Expect that to change by midweek, with the opening number likely shaped by how bettors weigh Nolan’s unbeaten momentum against Moicano’s experience against the division’s ranked contenders.
The rest of the main card has plenty of its own intrigue. No. 6 Yana Santos meets No. 7 Luana Santos in a shared-surname women’s bantamweight matchup that could shake up the rankings, while Randy Brown squares off with Carlos Leal in a notable welterweight clash. Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani and Farman Hasanov round out the main card in another 170-pound bout.
Here’s a quick look at the top of the Oct. 31 card:
- Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan (lightweight): five-round main event
- Yana Santos vs. Luana Santos (women’s bantamweight)
- Randy Brown vs. Carlos Leal (welterweight)
- Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs. Farman Hasanov (welterweight)
Odds for each of these bouts weren’t yet available at the time of writing. Check back on this page in the days leading up to fight night, when sportsbooks typically release their opening numbers.
Once lines are posted, comparing the price at several legal sportsbooks is still the easiest way to find extra value on this matchup, especially in a main event that could move quickly once betting opens.
Types of UFC odds
Depending on where you live, you may have multiple sports betting sites to choose from. To get the best odds, it can be advantageous to sign up at several books. This can also allow you to claim various sign-up bonuses.
Once you’ve signed up and deposited money into your account, you can place bets on UFC events. Keep in mind that more bets typically become available in the week leading up to the fight. This especially holds true for props.
Moneyline: This is a straight bet on one fighter to win. If you place a moneyline bet, your bet cashes if the fighter you picked wins. This happens regardless of method, time or round. Your payout depends on the odds and the amount of your wager.
Fight props: Prop bets (aka “propositions”) allow you to wager on specific occurrences. These are often at greater and therefore potentially more profitable odds. Examples of fight props might be betting on a certain fight to last for all the scheduled rounds. This is also known as “going the distance.” You might also be able to bet on a fight to finish in the first minute. Or, even on the referee deducting a point at some point in the fight.
Round props: This allows you to bet on which round the fight will end in. Or whether a fight will last long enough to see the beginning of a certain round.
Winning method: These bets allow you to wager on precisely how the fight will end. They tend to broadly fall into three categories: KO/TKO/DQ, submission and decision. If the referee stops the fight due to strikes, that’s almost always a knockout or technical knockout. When a fighter taps out, either physically or verbally, while in a choke or joint lock, it’s a submission. If the fight goes the full distance and the judges decide it, that’s a decision. It’s also possible to bet on a fight ending in a draw, though this is relatively rare. You can also combine round props and winning method by betting on a fight to end in a specific round.
Parlays: This is when you group two or more bets together. This goes with the understanding that the parlay only wins if all of your individual picks are correct. For instance, you might bet on three different fighters on the same card to all win their bouts. Or you might bet on one fighter to win, another to win by submission, and a third fight to go the distance regardless of who wins the decision. The more bets you add to a parlay, the higher the odds get and the greater the potential payout. But the risk tends to go up as well, as a single missed bet spoils the parlay.
UFC odds explained
The most common question bettors face when looking at fight odds is how to interpret the numbers they see next to each fighter’s name. A positive number means that these are underdog odds, which means the payoff will be higher if the bet hits. If the moneyline odds on a fighter are +300, that means a bet of $100 would stand to win $300 (plus your original $100 back) if that fighter wins.
A negative number generally indicates a favorite, which means the potential payoff will be lower. If a fighter is -300, that means a bet of $300 would stand to win $100 (plus your original bet back) if that fighter wins.
UFC odds FAQ
Yes. If you’re in a state where sports gambling is legal, you can typically bet on every bout that happens in the UFC. Many sportsbooks like Draftkings and BetMGM, offer odds on other MMA sportsbook promos, such as PFL, Dana White’s Contender Series and more.
You can usually wager on UFC bouts in any state where sports betting is legal, using one of the sportsbooks that regulators have approved in that state.
It’s relatively rare for MMA bouts to end in draws, but it does happen occasionally. When it does, it usually depends on whether the sportsbook where you placed the wager offered “draw” as one of the options for the outcome. If draw was an option to bet on, as it often is at many sportsbooks, then moneyline bets on either fighter to win would both lose. If draw was not an option, the sportsbook will typically void moneyline bets on one of the fighters to win. However, a bet on the fight to go to a decision would still win, since a draw counts as a type of judges’ decision.
Fights are sometimes scratched from the card, occasionally even on the day of the event. This can happen for a variety of reasons, most of them relating to fighter health and safety. When that happens, sportsbooks will typically void and refund single bets on that one fight. Bets on that fight as part of a parlay depend on house rules, but often the sportsbook will remove that fight alone from the parlay, and the rest will remain intact. Be sure to read the house rules for any sportsbook you use, as these can vary.
Fights sometimes end in a no-contest after something like an accidental foul early in the bout makes it impossible to complete. In that case, sportsbooks usually void and refund bets on the fight. Sometimes, however, fights have an announced winner and only later does a state athletic commission change it to a no-contest. In that case, house rules apply, but often sportsbooks pay out bets on the basis of the result on fight night.
Odds with a plus in front of them are underdog odds, which means the payout for hitting those bets will be higher, but also perhaps less likely. If the moneyline odds on a fighter are +240, that means a $100 bet on that fighter will net you $240 if that fighter wins. Negative odds, meanwhile, indicate favorites, which means the potential payout will be smaller but oddsmakers think it has a higher chance of winning. If the moneyline is -130, that means a bet of $130 would stand to net a gain of $100 on a winning wager.
In terms of closing odds, the biggest underdog to win a UFC bout was Shana Dobson, who came in at +950 against Mariya Agapova, who was a -1400 favorite to win their bout at a UFC Fight Night event in 2020. Dobson won the fight via TKO, cashing as an almost 10-1 underdog. The biggest upset in a title fight came at UFC 69, when +850 underdog Matt Serra defeated welterweight champion Georges St-Pierre via TKO in 2007.
Not all fights have a favorite and an underdog. Some fights are “pick ’ems,” with the odds the same for both competitors. When there is a clear favorite, though, they win more often than not. Tracked across thousands of UFC bouts, favorites have won at a rate of roughly 68%, or about two out of every three fights.
All title fights in the UFC are scheduled for five rounds of five minutes each. The fight can end at any time due to knockout, submission or disqualification, but no fights can go longer than the full five rounds. Most main events are also booked for five rounds of five minutes each, but occasionally last-minute changes to the card or bout order can affect this. All other fights, meanwhile, are scheduled for three rounds of five minutes each and will have gone the distance if they complete all scheduled rounds and are decided by the judges’ scorecards.