The second round of the 2024 playoffs is a true changing-of-the-guard moment for the NBA, as the remaining field mostly lacks veteran superstars. For example, the following players will be watching from home: LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, and Kawhi Leonard.
Only one former NBA Finals MVP still stands, which makes the waters a bit murky. How have online sportsbooks pivoted with so many superstars sitting on the couch? And has the public backed a new ascending superstar to claim the throne?
NBA Finals MVP odds
The following Finals MVP odds and public betting information are from May 6 via BetMGM. Current odds are being shown from various online sportsbooks.
| Round One Opening Odds | Current Odds | Ticket% | Handle% | |
| Nikola Jokic | +325 | 23.9% | 32.4% | |
| Anthony Edwards | +2500 | 12.6% | 15.8% | |
| Jayson Tatum | +260 | 8.1% | 12% | |
| Jamal Murray | +3000 | 6.7% | 4.1% | |
| Luka Doncic | +1800 | 6.5% | 4.2% | |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | +1600 | 5.4% | 3.8% | |
| Derrick White | +8000 | 3.4% | 4.1% | |
| Jalen Brunson | +4000 | 2.8% | 1.1% | |
| Jaylen Brown | +950 | 2.5% | 1.6% | |
| Tyrese Haliburton | +20000 | 1.3% | 0.4% | |
| Kyrie Irving | +12500 | 1.1% | 0.5% | |
| Chet Holmgren | +25000 | 0.8% | 0.4% | |
| Josh Hart | +50000 | 0.7% | 0.6% | |
| Pascal Siakam | +50000 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| Michael Porter Jr. | +6600 | +25000 | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| Myles Turner | +100000 | +50000 | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Donte DiVincenzo | +100000 | 0.5% | 0.1% |
Jayson Tatum and Nikola Jokic entered the postseason with the shortest Finals MVP odds, and nothing has changed in that department. They are the best players on the two best teams, and online sportsbooks are not eager to provide lengthy odds for them.
However, Anthony Edwards has joined them to form a clear top three. He is drawing Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant comparisons at the moment through his stellar play and similar style. Edwards currently owns an average of 33 points per game on elite 65% true shooting, and Minnesota managed to steal game one on the road against Denver.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander currently owns the fourth shortest odds to claim the trophy. Oklahoma City flexed its muscles against New Orleans in round one, and the fact that the Thunder would only have to beat one of Denver or Minnesota definitely eases the team’s NBA playoff path.
Knicks point guard Jalen Brunson leads the playoffs at 35 points per game, and he has New York looking dangerous. Boston remains an incredibly difficult roadblock, but Kristaps Porzingis’ injury concerns could level the playing field. As a result, Brunson has moved from odds of +4000 to +1000. Tyrese Haliburton’s odds also changed significantly after Indiana’s upset victory over Milwaukee.
Finally, Derrick White and Josh Hart are making waves through excellent statistical performances. These hyper-elite role players have radically shortened odds compared to their lines for the opening round.
Edwards NBA Finals MVP betting soaring
Nikola Jokic easily leads the pack in Finals MVP ticket and handle percentage, which is not surprising considering the amount of preseason and regular season bets he received.
The real story revolves around Anthony Edwards’ supernova-esque explosion. He held just 2.9% of tickets and 2.7% of handle on April 22; now, those figures have spiked to 12.6% and 15.8%, respectively. The basketball world is witnessing the rise of a new American megastar in real time in terms of basketball skill but also public perception and fame.
Even more impressive is Edwards does not have a home-state boost from fans betting on him. While Jokic and Tatum play in legal betting states, Minnesota sports betting is not yet legal.
Finally, Derrick White is also a popular dark horse bet for the public, and he’s subsequently a liability for online sportsbooks. White has produced 22 points per game on impossibly great 74% true shooting while playing superb defense. Tatum has been known to somewhat disappear during a series occasionally, so it’s possible that White could wind up as the statistically most impactful player in a hypothetical Finals featuring the Celtics.
Plus, Boston resides in a far weaker conference and is heavily favored to win the East. Per FanDuel, they hold –270 odds to reach the NBA Finals, which has an implied probability of about 73%.
