NFL Playoff Picture: Updated Playoff Matchups After Week 10


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NFL Playoff Picture: Updated Playoff Matchups After Week 10

The NFL playoff picture continues to take shape as we head into Week 11 of the regular season. On the AFC side of the bracket, the Chiefs and the Dolphins are the top two favorites to reach the postseason, while the Eagles and Lions top the charts in the NFC. 

Further down the list, competitive races continue to develop for the final playoff spots. Each week, we review the current NFL playoff odds and examine what the seeds and matchups would look like if the playoffs started today, based on the latest lines.  

AFC playoff odds in Week 11

The table below has the latest playoff odds for all 16 AFC teams from Caesars Sportsbook, along with the lines for their Week 11 games from various NFL betting sites.

TeamPlayoff OddsImplied Probability*This Week 
Kansas City Chiefs-1000092.07% vs. Eagles 
Miami Dolphins-110085.24% vs. Raiders
Baltimore Ravens-90083.69% vs. Bengals
Jacksonville Jaguars-60079.70% vs. Titans
Cleveland Browns-18059.78% vs. Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals-14555.03% vs. Ravens
Pittsburgh Steelers-13052.56% vs. Browns
Houston Texans+10046.49% vs. Cardinals
Buffalo Bills+16535.09% vs. Jets
Los Angeles Chargers+21030.00% vs. Packers
Indianapolis Colts+24027.35%Bye week
New York Jets+50015.50% vs. Bills
Denver Broncos +52514.88% vs. Vikings
Las Vegas Raiders+65012.40% vs. Dolphins 
Tennessee Titans+13006.64% vs. Jaguars
New England Patriots+25003.58%Bye week

*Our implied probability calculation uses the sportsbook’s odds minus the vigorish charged by that sportsbook. An average online gambling calculator will provide you with the implied probability based on just the betting odds. By going a step further and accounting for the vig, we find a true implied probability in relation to the sportsbook’s odds.

The Chiefs return from a bye week at 7-2 and remain heavily favored to win the AFC West. The Dolphins are 6-3 and also returning from a break. The 7-3 Ravens and 6-3 Jaguars both remain in good shape as far as the odds are concerned, but the two clubs head into this week looking to rebound from disappointing losses. 

The remaining AFC North teams hold down the three wild card spots in the latest odds. The Browns and Steelers improved their standing with victories last week, while the Bengals suffered a tough home loss. Cleveland’s odds could be further impacted moving forward as the team will be without Deshaun Watson the rest of the way due to a shoulder injury. 

In the eighth and ninth spots, we find two of the more intriguing stories of the season to date. The Texans entered the season with low expectations, but they’re 5-4 and very much alive in the hunt. Meanwhile, the Bills were heavy favorites to reach the playoffs at the beginning of the season. Now 5-5, Buffalo has ground to make up. 

Further down the charts, the Broncos’ odds have risen in the wake of the team’s three-game winning streak. This week, the four AFC North clubs will do battle in a pair of games that could shake up the odds. The Bengals are at the Ravens on Thursday Night Football, while the Browns host the Steelers on Sunday. 

NFC playoff odds in Week 11

Here are the playoff odds for all 16 NFC teams from Caesars Sportsbook, along with their implied playoff probability and the lines for their Week 11 games.

TeamPlayoff OddsImplied Probability*This Week 
Philadelphia Eagles-2500094.89% vs. Chiefs
Detroit Lions-2500094.89% vs. Bears
San Francisco 49ers-1000094.33% vs. Buccaneers
Dallas Cowboys-400092.95% vs. Panthers
Seattle Seahawks-42076.95% vs. Rams
Minnesota Vikings-21064.54% vs. Broncos
New Orleans Saints-15057.16%Bye week
Tampa Bay Buccaneers+15537.36% vs. 49ers
Atlanta Falcons+23028.87%Bye week
Green Bay Packers+42518.15% vs. Chargers
Los Angeles Rams+52515.24% vs. Rams
Washington Commanders+10008.66% vs. Giants
Chicago Bears+18005.01% vs. Lions
New York Giants+25003.66% vs. Commanders
Arizona Cardinals+25003.66% vs. Texans
Carolina Panthers+25003.66% vs. Cowboys

*Our implied probability calculation uses the sportsbook’s odds minus the vigorish charged by that sportsbook. An average online gambling calculator will provide you with the implied probability based on just the betting odds. By going a step further and accounting for the vig, we find a true implied probability in relation to the sportsbook’s odds.

The Eagles return from a bye week with the NFL’s best record at 8-1. The Lions are 7-2 following a victory last week and remain atop the NFC North. The 49ers won their first game back from a break in convincing fashion over the Jaguars to get to 6-3. The Cowboys are also 6-3 following a dominant home win over the Giants.  

The Seahawks are also 6-3 and remain in great shape as far as the odds are concerned. The Vikings have surged up the charts in the wake of recent success. Minnesota has won five straight to run its record to 6-4 in advance of a Sunday Night Football road date versus the Broncos. 

The Saints hit a bye week with a record of 5-5. They’re in first place in the NFC South standings and are favored in the latest division odds. The Buccaneers and Falcons are the next two names on the playoff odds board, which further helps to confirm that this is a race that is far from decided. 

In NFC battles this week, the Lions, 49ers, and Cowboys are all heavily favored to win their respective games over clubs near the back of the pack in playoff odds. Upset losses for any of them will almost certainly shake up the board. The Eagles will be in the Monday Night Football spotlight for a Super Bowl rematch versus the Chiefs. 

Projected Super Bowl 58 matchups for Week 11

Betting odds on the winner of Super Bowl 58 continue to evolve with each passing week of regular season action. At most legal online sportsbooks, just six teams have odds of +1200 or less to win the big game.  

Based on the latest odds, potential matchups for Super Bowl 58 include the following: 

We have a potential preview this week — and a rematch from last season’s Super Bowl — when the Eagles and Chiefs do battle on MNF. The Ravens face a stiff test on TNF versus the Bengals. The 49ers, Cowboys, and Dolphins are all big favorites to win this week. Lurking behind the top six teams on the board, the Lions and Bengals are within striking distance of joining the crowd as Super Bowl 58 favorites.