The College Football Playoff picture has shifted once again following an eventful week of action.
In the latest College Football Playoff odds, Oregon has taken over the top spot, and Georgia is second following a victory over Texas on Saturday.
As we shift our focus to the college football Week 9 schedule, here’s a detailed look at the current state of the CFP race.
Latest College Football Playoff odds
CFP bracket projection
In the expanded CFP format, the five highest-ranked conference champions receive automatic berths. The next seven highest-ranked clubs take the remaining slots. Here’s how the seeds would look based on the latest college football odds:
- 1 – Oregon Ducks
- 2 – Georgia Bulldogs
- 3 – Miami Hurricanes
- 4 – Iowa State Cyclones
- 5 – Texas Longhorns
- 6 – Ohio State Buckeyes
- 7 – Penn State Nittany Lions
- 8 – Clemson Tigers
- 9 – Tennessee Volunteers
- 10 – Notre Dame Fighting Irish
- 11 – Alabama Crimson Tide
- 12 – Boise State Broncos
Oregon is 7-0 following a 35-0 road win over Purdue. The Ducks have taken over the top spot in CFP odds and were also first in the latest AP Top 25 poll.
Georgia is second, most recently posting a 30-15 win over Texas to improve its record to 6-1. The Longhorns led the odds board last week but took a dip with the defeat.
Miami and Iowa State hold steady in the third and fourth spots. The Hurricanes have the lowest odds among ACC teams, while the Cyclones hit the same mark among Big 12 squads.
For the remaining slots, there are no new arrivals since last week’s projection. Ohio State and Alabama have dropped, while Tennessee and Clemson have risen.
Boise State continues to hold a commanding lead in odds among Group of Five programs. Liberty (+700) is next up and tied for 21st in odds to make it to the CFP.
At BetMGM Sportsbook, Ohio State has attracted the most handle to win it all at 19.2%. Georgia (17.2%) is next, followed by Texas (11.9%).
Potential CFP first-round matchups
When the seeds for the CFP are announced, the winners of the Power Four conferences — the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, and SEC — are expected to receive byes for the opening round. The next eight seeds will be paired up in first-round matchups. If the seeding ended up aligning with the current odds, the opening matchups would look like this:
- (12) Boise State vs. (5) Texas
- (11) Alabama vs. (6) Ohio State
- (10) Notre Dame vs. (7) Penn State
- (9) Tennessee (8) Clemson
Three SEC teams — Texas, Tennessee, and Alabama — and a pair from the Big Ten — Ohio State and Penn State — form the majority of the projected first-round bracket.
Joining them are Clemson (ACC), Notre Dame (independent), and Boise State (Mountain West). Based on the latest odds, the potential is there for marquee opening matchups, such as Alabama vs. Ohio State.
The current odds serve as a guide to what the College Football Playoff bracket might look like at the close of the campaign. However, the CFP selection committee rankings still serve as the final word. The first edition of that poll is due on Nov. 5.
College Football Playoff bubble teams
The first team on the outside looking in this week is LSU (+110). The Tigers are 6-1, having ripped off six straight wins since a loss to USC in their opener.
Next up are Texas A&M (+135) and Kansas State (+150). The Aggies and Wildcats are both 6-1 and rank 14th and 16th, respectively, in the latest poll.
At most college football betting sites, just four other teams have odds of +250 or less to reach the CFP: Ole Miss (+200), Indiana (+215), BYU (+240), and SMU (+250).
Upcoming games that could impact the CFP race
There are five matchups of ranked teams this week:
- (20) Illinois vs. (1) Oregon
- (5) Texas vs. (25) Vanderbilt
- (8) LSU vs. (14) Texas A&M
- (12) Notre Dame vs. (24) Navy
- (21) Missouri vs. (15) Alabama
In four of the matchups, the higher-ranked team is a double-digit favorite. The tightest game appears to be LSU at Texas A&M. The Aggies are 3.5-point home favorites. A victory could land them in next week’s picture, while the Tigers could rise with a victory or drop with a defeat.