The early playoff picture continues to take shape as the focus shifts to NFL Week 6 action. There are a few heavy favorites to reach the postseason, including the undefeated San Francisco 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC and the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC.
Betting odds will continue to shift as this week and the rest of the regular season play out. Down below, we review the current NFL playoff odds and consider what the seeds and matchups would look like if the playoffs started today, using the latest odds as a guide.
AFC playoff odds in Week 6
The table below has the current playoff odds for all 16 AFC teams from Caesars Sportsbook, along with the lines for their Week 6 games from various football betting sites.
| Team | Playoff Odds | Implied Probability* | This Week |
| Kansas City Chiefs | –2000 | 90.25% | vs. Broncos |
| Miami Dolphins | –1000 | 86.15% | vs. Panthers |
| Buffalo Bills | –450 | 77.53% | vs. Giants |
| Baltimore Ravens | –230 | 66.05% | vs. Titans |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | –200 | 63.17% | vs. Colts |
| Cleveland Browns | –140 | 55.28% | vs. 49ers |
| Los Angeles Chargers | –120 | 51.69% | vs. Cowboys |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | +125 | 42.12% | Bye week |
| Indianapolis Colts | +165 | 35.76% | at Jaguars |
| Cincinnati Bengals | +180 | 33.84% | vs. Seahawks |
| Tennessee Titans | +220 | 29.61% | vs. Ravens |
| Houston Texans | +285 | 24.61% | vs. Saints |
| Las Vegas Raiders | +400 | 18.95% | vs. Patriots |
| New York Jets | +800 | 10.53% | vs. Eagles |
| New England Patriots | +900 | 9.48% | at Raiders |
| Denver Broncos | +1800 | 4.99% | at Chiefs |
*Our implied probability calculation uses the sportsbook’s odds minus the vigorish charged by that sportsbook. An average online gambling calculator will provide you with the implied probability based on just the betting odds. By going a step further and accounting for the vig, we find a true implied probability in relation to the sportsbook’s odds.
The Chiefs and Miami Dolphins further strengthened their positions with victories last week, while the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens are looking to rebound from upset losses. The Jacksonville Jaguars had a successful London trip and went 2-0, leading to a spike in their line. Here’s how the AFC seeds would line up based on the current betting odds:
- Bye: (1) Kansas City Chiefs
- (2) Miami Dolphins vs. (7) Los Angeles Chargers
- (3) Baltimore Ravens vs. (6) Cleveland Browns
- (4) Jacksonville Jaguars vs. (5) Buffalo Bills
Buffalo holds a head-to-head win over Miami, but the latter is the current favorite to win the AFC East. Baltimore is still the favorite to win the AFC North, but the lead isn’t quite as pronounced following last week’s loss to the Steelers. Jacksonville has quickly rebounded from a tough 1-2 start and remains the team with the top odds in the AFC South.
The top five slots in the AFC bracket are clear as far as the odds are concerned. The latest lines appear to expect a tight race for the final two seeds. The Cleveland Browns and Los Angeles Chargers hold the lead for now, but the Pittsburgh Steelers, Indianapolis Colts, and Cincinnati Bengals are within striking distance. Cleveland and Indianapolis are dealing with QB injuries, a situation that bears monitoring.
At the bottom of the list, the Denver Broncos entered the season with high hopes under new head coach Sean Payton, but they are now searching for answers following a 1-4 start. The New England Patriots are in the same boat at 1-4 and will be looking to rebound from an embarrassing home shutout loss to the New Orleans Saints when they take on the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday.
For this week’s schedule, there are two notable AFC games to keep an eye on. The Ravens travel to London to face the Tennessee Titans, while the Jaguars are home to host the Colts. Baltimore and Jacksonville are the favorites to win, and victories would likely keep those teams in good shape in playoff odds, while upsets in either game could further impact the board.
NFC playoff odds in Week 6
Here are the playoff odds for all 16 NFC teams from Caesars Sportsbook, along with their implied playoff probability and the current lines for their Week 6 games.
| Team | Playoff Odds | Implied Probability* | This Week |
| San Francisco 49ers | -10000 | 94.69% | at Browns |
| Philadelphia Eagles | -10000 | 94.69% | at Jets |
| Detroit Lions | -800 | 94.46% | at Buccaneers |
| Dallas Cowboys | -380 | 75.72% | at Chargers |
| New Orleans Saints | -180 | 61.48% | vs. Texans |
| Seattle Seahawks | -140 | 55.79% | at Bengals |
| Atlanta Falcons | -135 | 54.94% | vs. Commanders |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -120 | 52.17% | vs. Lions |
| Green Bay Packers | +165 | 36.09% | Bye week |
| Los Angeles Rams | +240 | 28.13% | vs. Cardinals |
| Minnesota Vikings | +475 | 16.63% | at Bears |
| Washington Commanders | +600 | 13.66% | at Falcons |
| New York Giants | +1500 | 5.98% | at Bills |
| Chicago Bears | +1500 | 5.98% | vs. Vikings |
| Carolina Panthers | +1800 | 5.03% | at Dolphins |
| Arizona Cardinals | +2000 | 4.55% | at Rams |
*Our implied probability calculation uses the sportsbook’s odds minus the vigorish charged by that sportsbook. An average online gambling calculator will provide you with the implied probability based on just the betting odds. By going a step further and accounting for the vig, we find a true implied probability in relation to the sportsbook’s odds.
The 49ers and Eagles met in last season’s NFC title game. The two clubs are 5-0 to begin the season and are heavily favored to make it to the postseason once again. The Detroit Lions have started strong at 4-1 and remain the top choice to win the NFC North. Here’s what the NFC matchups would be if we used the latest betting lines:
- Bye: (1) San Francisco 49ers
- (2) Philadelphia Eagles vs. (7) Atlanta Falcons
- (3) Detroit Lions vs. (6) Seattle Seahawks
- (4) New Orleans Saints vs. (5) Dallas Cowboys
The Dallas Cowboys lost by 32 points to the 49ers on Sunday night, but they remain among the top choices to reach the postseason. The 3-2 club will look to bounce back on this week’s edition of Monday Night Football against the Chargers. The Saints hold a slight edge in playoff odds among NFC South teams, but the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons are lurking right behind.
Similar to the AFC side, the odds see some separation between the top NFC clubs and the rest of the conference. Behind the top four, there’s a logjam of five teams in a relatively tight range. One of the spots will go to the winner of the NFC South, while the final two wild card spots appear to be up for grabs.
At the back of the pack, the Arizona Cardinals have shown flashes of being more competitive than expected, but the 1-4 record stands as the bottom line. The Carolina Panthers, meanwhile, are still searching for their first win of the season. The team next heads to Miami to face the Dolphins as heavy underdogs.
The biggest conference game of note for this week is the Lions vs. Buccaneers. Detroit entered the season with a good deal of hype, and it’s managed to back it up thus far. Expectations were being tempered for Tampa Bay, but the club is off to a solid start and appears poised to have something to say about how the postseason chase will shake out.
Projected Super Bowl 58 matchups for Week 6
Betting odds for the winner of Super Bowl 58 continue to move based on the results from each week of play. Looking back to last week, five teams had odds of +1000 or less at most legal online sportsbooks. It’s the same story this week, but the Dolphins have replaced the Cowboys as one of the top five.
- Odds to win Super Bowl 58:
- San Francisco 49ers
- Kansas City Chiefs
- Philadelphia Eagles
- Buffalo Bills
- Miami Dolphins
Based on the current odds, potential matchups for Super Bowl 58 include the following:
- 49ers vs. Chiefs
- 49ers vs. Bills
- 49ers vs. Dolphins
- Chiefs vs. Eagles
- Eagles vs. Bills
- Eagles vs. Dolphins
All five teams are in action this week and are favored to win their respective games. Two of them are in primetime, as the Chiefs take on the Broncos on Thursday Night Football, and the Bills welcome the Giants for Sunday Night Football. Impressive wins for any of the favorites could impact the odds, and the same would hold true for any unexpected upsets.
