As we head into the sixth week of the season, the NFL playoff picture continues to evolve.
According to the latest NFL playoff odds, there remain some clear favorites to reach the postseason in both conferences. Further down the charts, the stage appears to be set for what could be an intense battle for the final few playoff spots.
Here’s what the seeds and matchups would look like if the postseason started today using the current playoff odds as a guide, along with the NFL Week 6 matchups for each team.
AFC playoff odds in Week 6
The table below has the latest playoff odds for AFC teams from bet365 Sportsbook, along with the implied probability for each team to reach the postseason and that team’s opponent for this week.
Team | Playoff Odds | Implied Probability* | This Week |
Kansas City Chiefs | -20000 | 95.15% | Bye week |
Baltimore Ravens | -1100 | 87.66% | vs. Commanders |
Houston Texans | -1000 | 86.94% | vs. Patriots |
Buffalo Bills | -700 | 83.68% | vs. Jets |
Pittsburgh Steelers | -115 | 51.15% | vs. Raiders |
New York Jets | +100 | 47.81% | vs. Bills |
Los Angeles Chargers | +115 | 44.48% | vs. Broncos |
Cincinnati Bengals | +140 | 39.85% | vs. Giants |
Miami Dolphins | +180 | 34.15% | Bye week |
Denver Broncos | +190 | 32.98% | vs. Chargers |
Indianapolis Colts | +190 | 32.98% | vs. Titans |
Jacksonville Jaguars | +375 | 20.13% | vs. Bears |
Tennessee Titans | +550 | 14.71% | vs. Colts |
Las Vegas Raiders | +600 | 13.66% | vs. Steelers |
Cleveland Browns | +1000 | 8.69% | vs. Eagles |
New England Patriots | +1500 | 5.98% | vs. Texans |
Our implied probability calculation uses the sportsbook’s odds minus the vigorish charged by that sportsbook. An average online gambling calculator will provide you with the implied probability based on just the betting odds. By going a step further and accounting for the vig, we find a true implied probability in relation to the sportsbook’s odds.
The Chiefs head to a bye at 5-0 and remain the favorite in AFC playoff odds. The Ravens, Texans, and Bills continue to jockey for spots two through four on the odds board. Here is what the first-round matchups would look like if the season ended today based on the odds:
- Bye: (1) Chiefs
- (2) Ravens vs. (7) Chargers
- (3) Texans vs. (6) Jets
- (4) Bills vs. (5) Steelers
The Steelers, Jets, and Chargers round out the bracket in this week’s projection. Pittsburgh has lost two straight to drop to 3-2 in advance of a game against the Raiders.
New York is also on a two-game skid and has parted ways with head coach Robert Saleh. The team has promoted defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich to lead the 2-3 squad in an interim role.
Los Angeles returns from a bye with a 2-2 record. Behind the Chargers, the 1-4 Bengals are the next team up in playoff odds and will face the Giants on Sunday Night Football.
Conference matchups that could impact next week’s landscape include the Bills versus the Jets and the Chargers taking on the Broncos.
NFC playoff odds in Week 6
Bet365 Sportsbook’s playoff odds for the NFC are in the table below, along with each squad’s implied probability of reaching the postseason and this week’s opponent.
Team | Playoff Odds | Implied Probability* | This Week |
Minnesota Vikings | -900 | 82.95% | Bye week |
Detroit Lions | -280 | 67.91% | vs. Cowboys |
Philadelphia Eagles | -230 | 64.24% | vs. Browns |
Atlanta Falcons | -200 | 61.44% | vs. Panthers |
San Francisco 49ers | -165 | 57.38% | vs. Seahawks |
Washington Commanders | -140 | 53.76% | vs. Ravens |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -110 | 48.28% | vs. Saints |
Dallas Cowboys | -110 | 48.28% | vs. Lions |
Green Bay Packers | -110 | 48.28% | vs. Cardinals |
New Orleans Saints | -105 | 47.21% | vs. Buccaneers |
Seattle Seahawks | +160 | 35.49% | vs. 49ers |
Chicago Bears | +210 | 29.73% | vs. Jaguars |
Arizona Cardinals | +220 | 28.80% | vs. Packers |
New York Giants | +750 | 10.84% | vs. Bengals |
Los Angeles Rams | +850 | 9.70% | Bye week |
Carolina Panthers | +1500 | 5.76% | vs. Falcons |
Our implied probability calculation uses the sportsbook’s odds minus the vigorish charged by that sportsbook. An average online gambling calculator will provide you with the implied probability based on just the betting odds. By going a step further and accounting for the vig, we find a true implied probability in relation to the sportsbook’s odds.
The undefeated Vikings remain the top seed as they head to a week off. The order has shifted slightly, but the Eagles, Falcons, and 49ers are still second through fourth in odds.
- Bye: (1) Vikings
- (2) Eagles vs. (7) Buccaneers
- (3) Falcons vs. (6) Commanders
- (4) 49ers vs. (5) Lions
The Lions are the second favorite in NFC playoff odds but would fall to the fifth spot in this hypothetical bracket as they are behind the Vikings. Minnesota is also favored in odds to win the NFC North.
The Commanders have surged into the sixth spot after an impressive 4–1 start. Rookie QB Jayden Daniels is the betting favorite in Rookie of the Year odds.
The odds give the Buccaneers the nod for seventh place, with the Cowboys, Packers, and Saints hot on their tail. The Seahawks will face the 49ers on Thursday Night Football in one of the week’s top conference matchups.
Dallas will be at home to face Detroit on Sunday, another matchup that has the potential to shake up the board.
Projected Super Bowl 59 matchups for Week 6
As we get set for Week 6 of the NFL season, Super Bowl odds continue to take shape. At most legal online sportsbooks, just four teams have odds of +1100 or less to win it all.
- Chiefs (+500)
- Ravens (+750)
- 49ers (+800)
- Lions (+1100)
Based on the latest lines, potential matchups for the 2025 Super Bowl include the following:
- Chiefs vs. 49ers
- Chiefs vs. Lions
- Ravens vs. 49ers
- Ravens vs. Lions
Three of the four favorites will be in action this week, with Kansas City the lone exception. On the odds board, just four other teams have odds of less than +2000 at most NFL sportsbooks: the Bills (+1200), Texans (+1200), Vikings (+1200), and Eagles (+1600).