The early playoff picture continues to take shape as we get set for NFL Week 4 games. There are a few clear favorites to make it to the postseason, including the San Francisco 49ers and Miami Dolphins. Some clubs that sportsbooks viewed as potential contenders, such as the Denver Broncos, have tumbled down the board after tough starts.
Betting odds have shifted through the first three weeks of play, and that will continue to happen as the rest of the season plays out. On this page, we break down the current NFL playoff odds and also consider what the seeds and matchups would look like if the playoffs started today, using the latest odds as a guide.
AFC playoff odds for Week 4
The table below has the latest playoff odds for all 16 AFC teams from Caesars Sportsbook, along with the lines for their Week 4 games from various NFL betting sites.
| Team | Playoff Odds | Implied Probability* | This Week |
| Miami Dolphins | -800 | 88.89% | at Bills |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -650 | 86.67% | at Jets |
| Buffalo Bills | -310 | 75.61% | vs. Dolphins |
| Baltimore Ravens | -190 | 65.52% | at Browns |
| Cleveland Browns | -190 | 65.52% | vs. Ravens |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | -125 | 55.56% | at Texans |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | -120 | 54.55% | vs. Falcons |
| Cincinnati Bengals | -110 | 52.38% | at Titans |
| Los Angeles Chargers | +120 | 45.45% | vs. Raiders |
| Tennessee Titans | +165 | 37.74% | vs. Bengals |
| Indianapolis Colts | +165 | 37.74% | vs. Rams |
| New England Patriots | +340 | 22.73% | at Cowboys |
| Las Vegas Raiders | +375 | 21.05% | at Chargers |
| New York Jets | +650 | 13.33% | vs. Chiefs |
| Houston Texans | +650 | 13.33% | vs. Steelers |
| Denver Broncos | +800 | 11.11% | at Bears |
*Our implied probability calculation uses the sportsbook’s odds minus the vigorish charged by that sportsbook. An average online gambling calculator will provide you with the implied probability based on just the betting odds. By going a step further and accounting for the vig, we find a true implied probability in relation to the sportsbook’s odds.
The Dolphins have overtaken the Chiefs as the top favorite on the AFC side following an impressive 70-20 victory over the Broncos. Kansas City has rebounded from a Week 1 loss to the Lions to win two in a row. Here’s how the AFC seeds line up based on the current betting odds:
- Bye: (1) Miami Dolphins
- (2) Kansas City Chiefs vs. (7) Pittsburgh Steelers
- (3) Baltimore Ravens vs. (6) Cleveland Browns
- (4) Jacksonville Jaguars vs. (5) Buffalo Bills
The Ravens and Browns are tied in playoff odds. Baltimore gets the nod for the three seed due to being slightly favored to win the AFC North. The two teams meet on Sunday in Cleveland. We’ll have more clarity on the hierarchy following that game. Miami heads to Buffalo this week for a pivotal battle, with the winner taking the lead in the AFC East chase.
Further down the list, the Jaguars are still favored to win the AFC South despite a 1-2 start, but the gap is beginning to close. The Steelers have jumped into the seventh spot following two straight wins. At the bottom of the board, the Broncos are searching for answers after starting with an 0-3 record that includes a 50-point loss to the Dolphins.
NFC playoff odds for Week 4
Here are the playoff odds for all 16 NFC teams from Caesars Sportsbook, along with their implied playoff probability and the lines for their Week 4 games.
| Team | Playoff Odds | Implied Probability* | This Week |
| San Francisco 49ers | -4000 | 97.56% | vs. Cardinals |
| Philadelphia Eagles | -1400 | 93.33% | vs. Commanders |
| Dallas Cowboys | -500 | 83.33% | vs. Patriots |
| Detroit Lions | -210 | 67.74% | at Packers |
| New Orleans Saints | -180 | 64.29% | vs. Buccaneers |
| Atlanta Falcons | -180 | 64.29% | vs. Jaguars |
| Green Bay Packers | -140 | 58.33% | vs. Lions |
| Seattle Seahawks | +120 | 45.45% | at Giants |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +145 | 40.82% | at Saints |
| Los Angeles Rams | +310 | 24.39% | at Colts |
| Washington Commanders | +310 | 24.39% | vs. Patriots |
| Minnesota Vikings | +350 | 22.22% | at Panthers |
| New York Giants | +430 | 18.87% | vs. Seahawks |
| Chicago Bears | +1000 | 9.09% | vs. Broncos |
| Carolina Panthers | +1000 | 9.09% | vs. Vikings |
| Arizona Cardinals | +1500 | 6.25% | at 49ers |
*Our implied probability calculation uses the sportsbook’s odds minus the vigorish charged by that sportsbook. An average online gambling calculator will provide you with the implied probability based on just the betting odds. By going a step further and accounting for the vig, we find a true implied probability in relation to the sportsbook’s odds.
The 49ers and Eagles entered the season as heavy favorites to make it to the playoffs. The same holds true after the two teams opened at 3-0. The Cowboys were upset by the Cardinals last week but remain in good shape as far as the odds are concerned. Here’s what the NFC matchups would look like based on the latest betting lines:
- Bye: (1) San Francisco 49ers
- (2) Philadelphia Eagles vs. (7) Green Bay Packers
- (3) Detroit Lions vs. (6) Atlanta Falcons
- (4) New Orleans Saints vs. (5) Dallas Cowboys
The Lions are the current favorites to win the NFC North, but the Packers have closed the gap slightly. The two teams will face off in Green Bay on this week’s edition of Thursday Night Football. The Saints and Falcons are tied in odds to make the playoffs, but New Orleans holds a slight lead in the lines to win the NFC South.
Behind the top NFC favorites, the race for the other playoff spots remains pretty wide open. One of the games that could have an impact on the board this week is the final contest of Week 4. The Seahawks are on the road to take on the Giants on Monday Night Football. The winner of the primetime tilt could see an additional spike in interest.
Projected Super Bowl 58 matchup for Week 4
Betting odds on the winner of Super Bowl 58 have also moved from where they stood during the preseason. The 49ers have overtaken the Chiefs as the overall favorite, while the Dolphins have moved up the board following an impressive start. As of right now, just six teams have odds to win the Super Bowl of +1000 or less at most legal online sportsbooks.
- Odds to win Super Bowl 58:
- San Francisco 49ers
- Kansas City Chiefs
- Philadelphia Eagles
- Miami Dolphins
- Buffalo Bills
- Dallas Cowboys
It’s an even split of three teams on both sides of the bracket. Based on the latest odds, potential matchups for Super Bowl 58 include the following:
- 49ers vs. Chiefs
- 49ers vs. Dolphins
- 49ers vs. Bills
- Chiefs vs. Eagles
- Chiefs vs. Cowboys
- Eagles vs. Dolphins
- Eagles vs. Bills
- Dolphins vs. Cowboys
- Bills vs. Cowboys
For this week, the game that will likely have the biggest potential impact on the board is the Dolphins vs. Bills. The 49ers, Chiefs, Eagles, and Cowboys are all sizable favorites to win their respective games. A little further down the list, the winner of Ravens vs. Browns has a chance to capture even more attention.
