After one month of regular season action, the NFL playoff picture continues to come into focus.
Through the first four weeks of the campaign, there have been a number of notable upsets and unexpected outcomes. NFL playoff odds at bet365 Sportsbook have continued to evolve based on the results.
Here’s what the seeds and matchups would look like if the postseason started today using the current playoff odds as a guide, along with the NFL Week 5 matchups for each team.
AFC playoff odds in Week 5
The table below has the latest playoff odds for AFC teams from bet365 Sportsbook, along with the implied probability for each team to reach the postseason and that team’s opponent for this week.
| Team | Playoff Odds | Implied Probability* | This Week |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -20000 | 94.33% | vs. Saints |
| Buffalo Bills | -800 | 84.27% | vs. Texans |
| Houston Texans | -600 | 81.26% | vs. Bills |
| Baltimore Ravens | -500 | 79.00% | vs. Bengals |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | -130 | 53.58% | vs. Cowboys |
| New York Jets | -130 | 53.58% | vs. Vikings |
| Cincinnati Bengals | +110 | 45.14% | vs. Ravens |
| Los Angeles Chargers | +120 | 43.09% | Bye |
| Indianapolis Colts | +150 | 37.92% | vs. Jaguars |
| Miami Dolphins | +280 | 24.95% | vs. Patriots |
| Las Vegas Raiders | +300 | 23.70% | vs. Broncos |
| Denver Broncos | +300 | 23.70% | vs. Raiders |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | +475 | 16.49% | vs. Colts |
| Cleveland Browns | +500 | 15.80% | vs. Commanders |
| Tennessee Titans | +550 | 14.58% | Bye |
| New England Patriots | +1000 | 8.62% | vs. Dolphins |
Our implied probability calculation uses the sportsbook’s odds minus the vigorish charged by that sportsbook. An average online gambling calculator will provide you with the implied probability based on just the betting odds. By going a step further and accounting for the vig, we find a true implied probability in relation to the sportsbook’s odds.
The Chiefs remain the top seed and are off to a 4-0 start. The Bills continue to hold the second spot on the board after falling to the Ravens, who check in at fourth. The 3-1 Texans are the projected third seed and heavily favored to win the AFC South.
- Bye: (1) Chiefs
- (2) Bills vs. (7) Bengals
- (3) Texans vs. (6) Jets
- (4) Ravens vs. (5) Steelers
The race for the five through seven seeds continues to be tight. The Steelers, Jets, and Bengals are all within striking distance as far as the betting odds are concerned, with the Chargers not far behind.
A little further down the board are four clubs that could be in the hunt: the Colts, Dolphins, Raiders, and Broncos. Denver and Las Vegas square off this week.
Early season struggles for the Jaguars, Browns, Titans, and Patriots leave them all with a steep hill to climb. Jacksonville remains winless going into its game against the Colts this week.
In the AFC vs. AFC spotlight for Week 5, the Bills will face the Texans, and the Ravens will tangle with the Bengals. The results of both matchups could shake up the picture.
NFC playoff odds in Week 5
Playoff odds for the NFC teams from bet365 Sportsbook are in the table below, along with each squad’s implied probability of reaching the postseason and this week’s opponent.
| Team | Playoff Odds | Implied Probability* | This Week |
| Minnesota Vikings | -450 | 77.22% | vs. Jets |
| San Francisco 49ers | -300 | 70.78% | vs. Cardinals |
| Detroit Lions | -300 | 70.78% | Bye |
| Philadelphia Eagles | -250 | 67.41% | Bye |
| Atlanta Falcons | -130 | 53.34% | vs. Buccaneers |
| Seattle Seahawks | -130 | 53.34% | vs. Giants |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -115 | 50.48% | vs. Falcons |
| New Orleans Saints | -110 | 49.43% | vs. Chiefs |
| Dallas Cowboys | -110 | 49.43% | vs. Steelers |
| Green Bay Packers | +110 | 44.94% | vs. Rams |
| Washington Commanders | +130 | 41.03% | vs. Browns |
| Chicago Bears | +280 | 24.84% | vs. Panthers |
| Arizona Cardinals | +425 | 17.98% | vs. 49ers |
| Los Angeles Rams | +550 | 14.52% | vs. Packers |
| Carolina Panthers | +1000 | 8.58% | vs. Bears |
| New York Giants | +1500 | 5.90% | vs. Seahawks |
Our implied probability calculation uses the sportsbook’s odds minus the vigorish charged by that sportsbook. An average online gambling calculator will provide you with the implied probability based on just the betting odds. By going a step further and accounting for the vig, we find a true implied probability in relation to the sportsbook’s odds.
There’s a big change in the hierarchy this week. The undefeated Vikings have moved into the odds lead, ahead of the Eagles and 49ers. The Falcons are fifth in betting odds but get the hypothetical four seed over the Lions as the highest-ranked NFC South squad.
- Bye: (1) Vikings
- (2) 49ers vs. (7) Buccaneers
- (3) Eagles vs. (6) Seahawks
- (4) Falcons vs. (5) Lions
The Lions are down to the fifth seed in this week’s projections. Behind them, the odds are incredibly tight for the sixth and seventh spots.
The Seahawks, Buccaneers, Saints, Cowboys, Packers, and Commanders are all in close range. Atlanta will square off with Tampa Bay in this week’s headline conference showdown on Thursday Night Football.
The winner of that one will likely be the favorite to win the NFC South in division betting odds. After Washington, there’s a clear separation for the five teams that are at the back of the pack.
The Eagles and Lions are on byes this week and will likely remain securely in the picture. For the rest of the conference, this week’s results could dictate further changes.
Projected Super Bowl 59 matchups for Week 5
As we get ready for Week 5 of the campaign, Super Bowl odds continue to take shape. At most legal betting sites, just five teams have odds of +1100 or less to win the big game.
- Chiefs (+500)
- 49ers (+650)
- Ravens (+800)
- Bills (+1000)
- Lions (+1100)
Based on the latest lines, potential matchups for the 2025 Super Bowl include the following:
- Chiefs vs. 49ers
- Chiefs vs. Lions
- 49ers vs. Ravens
- 49ers vs. Bills
- Ravens vs. Lions
- Bills vs. Lions
Four of the five favorites will be in action this week, with Detroit the lone exception. On the odds board, just three other teams have odds of less than +2000 at most NFL sportsbooks: the Texans (+1500), Eagles (+1600), and Vikings (+1700).
