NFL Week 5 Odds, Betting Trends: Spreads Tighten After Historic Upset Rate

Written By

Sam McQuillan

Updated on

NFL Week 5 Odds, Betting Trends: Spreads Tighten After Historic Upset Rate
NFL Week 5 Odds
Sunday slate analysis
SNF analysis
MNF analysis

NFL Week 5 odds feature another slate of tight spreads and low totals, as upsets continue to define one of the lowest-scoring starts to a season in recent memory.

The wild start to the 2024 NFL season features an unlikely team both undefeated straight up and against the spread a quarter of the way into the campaign — a rare feat over the past two decades — and a rookie on pace to break a Drew Brees record, all while underdogs pull off upsets at an unprecedented rate.

Entering Week 5, underdogs of six points or more are 14-2-1 ATS and 9-8 SU, their best-ever start to a season. Just two teams are favored by at least a touchdown in Week 5, down from four the previous week, and market trends suggest those lines may shrink even further before kickoff. That is while the trek continues toward the lowest-scoring season since 2009, with teams averaging just 21.6 points per game through the first four weeks.

“You’ve got these crazy upsets with teams that can’t seem to win when they should, which has thrown the first few weeks into a frenzy,” said Johnny Avello, director of race and sportsbook operations at DraftKings. “We’ve done really well so far, but I expect things will probably turn around. You’re starting to see smaller point spreads, especially this weekend totals are down.”

With several teams enjoying the season’s first bye week, Week 5 features 14 games, highlighted by a Thursday night divisional matchup with significant postseason implications already, a clash between a former All-Pro receiver and the team that traded him away, and an unlikely MVP candidate facing the team that drafted him No. 3 overall in the season’s first London game.

Here’s a comprehensive breakdown of Week 5 odds, spreads, and betting trends, featuring insights from various NFL betting sites on the evolving market. Be sure to check back for the latest updates.

NFL Week 5 odds: Spreads, moneylines, & totals

Explore More NFL

NFL Betting Guide
NFL betting sites
super bowl odds
NFL Win totals

Week 5 Sunday matchups & analysis

Jets at Vikings

The Vikings (4-0 SU/4-0 ATS) are up to -3 in this London matchup against the Jets (2-2 SU/2-2 ATS). That is up from the opening line of Vikings -2.5, quite the swing from the lookahead line of Jets -1.5.

The Vikings are drawing 81% of bets and 73% of the money on the spread at DraftKings as of Thursday morning.

London games typically draw about half the money as normal games due to their early start time overseas, according to Avello.

The Vikings stayed flawless after a 31-29 win over the Packers in Week 4, in which they led big for most of the game. Sam Darnold is now tied for third in MVP odds (+800) at DraftKings, following another stellar three-touchdown performance. He opened at +30000, which was tied with Vikings first-round draft pick J.J. McCarthy at the time. He and the Vikings continue to defy the odds. Their win total for the season opened at 6.5. Four weeks in, they are the only team without a loss and flawless against the spread, just the third team to do so in the last 20 years.

“The Vikings have been dominant in a lot of their games, which the betting market did not expect and is trying to play catchup with. The market has stripped any value from the Vikings [at this point]. I would expect to see some resistance and buyback [on the Jets] if [this line] goes to +3,” said Joey Feazel, head of football at Caesars Sportsbook.

The Jets travel to London after getting upset by the Broncos 10-9 in a rain-soaked slugfest at home. That came after they played their first three games in the span of 11 days. New York’s offense managed the second-fewest yards of any team in Week 4 and committed five false starts. Aaron Rodgers and Co. will look to get right against a Vikings defense that’s allowed the most passing yards to opponents this season at 274 per game.

“If Aaron Rodgers can still throw, this is an opportunity for the Jets to take advantage,” Avello said.

The total for this game is 40 as of Thursday morning, up from the opening line of 38.5. At DraftKings, 64% of bets and 63% of the money are on the over.

Ravens at Bengals

The Ravens (2-2 SU/2-2 ATS) are up to -2.5 against the Bengals (1-3 SU/2-2 ATS), up from the opening line of Ravens -1. That is an unusually large amount of points for the road team in an AFC North matchup.

The home team has been favored in each of the last six of these matchups.

“This is a scary game to bet because both the Bengals and Ravens are better than they’ve shown,” Avello said. “Normally, Cincinnati would be a small favorite at home, but the Ravens are favored here on the road, which is unusual for these two teams.”

The Ravens are drawing 79% of bets and 74% of the money on the spread at DraftKings as of Thursday morning.

Baltimore is coming off perhaps the most impressive win of the season, knocking the Bills out of the undefeated club in a 35-10 beatdown on Sunday night. Derrick Henry finished with 198 rushing yards after exploding for an 87-yard touchdown on the opening drive, the longest rushing score in team history. The Ravens are the first team in NFL history to outrush opponents by over 100 yards in each of their first four games.

The Bengals secured their first win of the season by taking down the Panthers 33-24 in Week 4. Joe Burrow finished 22-of-31 for 232 passing yards and two touchdowns, including a 63-yard touchdown bomb to Ja’Marr Chase to seal the game. Running back Chase Brown chipped in with 80 rushing yards and two touchdowns.

The total is 49 after briefly shooting up to 50.5 on Wednesday, which would be in play for the highest of Week 5. It opened at 48. At DraftKings, 50% of tickets and 62% of the money are on the under, as of Thursday morning.

Browns at Commanders

The Commanders (3-1 SU/3-1 ATS) are up to -3.5 as they host the Browns (1-3 SU/1-3 ATS) in Week 5, up from where the opening line of -1.

Washington has started to draw heavy action regularly, as rookie Jayden Daniels propels them into the national media spotlight with his league-best 82.1 completion percentage, the best ever through any quarterback’s first four starts.

At DraftKings, 74% of bets and 56% of the money on the spread are on the Commanders.

Washington dominated the Cardinals in Week 4, cruising to a 42-14 upset victory. Daniels finished 26-of-30 for 234 passing yards and two total touchdowns. Washington now boasts the lowest turnover margin in the NFL and is scoring on 67% of drives, versus the league average of 35% this season. The Commanders are also averaging the third most rushing yards per game this season.

“Daniels and [offensive coordinator Kliff] Kingsbury appear to be a match in heaven and are attracting the bettors’ eyes in similar fashion to Saints in Week 2,” Feazel said, referring to sharp action on New Orleans after its second-straight 40-point game under new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak.

The Browns’ struggles continued in Week 4, with a 20-16 loss to the Raiders. Their offense once again faltered, as Deshaun Watson was sacked three times and threw an interception. He’s the NFL’s most-sacked quarterback through the first four weeks. Cleveland’s once-vaunted defense gave up 152 rushing yards to a Las Vegas team that ranked worst in that department going in.

The total is at 43.5 after briefly climbing to 44.5 on Wednesday, up from where it opened at 43. At DraftKings, 63% of bets and 73% of the money are on the over as of Thursday afternoon.

Bills at Texans

The Bills (3-1 SU/2-2 ATS) are up to -1 on the road against the Texans (3-1 SU/0-3-1 ATS) in Week 5 after opening as +1 underdogs. This would be Houston’s first time this season as underdogs, and at home no less.

Buffalo travels west after a 35-10 loss to the Ravens on Sunday night. It was their first regular season loss by more than six points since Week 11, 2021, breaking an NFL record 43-game streak. They were +2.5 underdogs in that game, but if they had pulled off the upset, they likely would be favored by two points against Houston, according to Feazel.

“The Bills always get play because they’re competitive and the betting public is expecting a bounce-back game after that loss,” Avello said. “Houston has been doing well and meeting expectations, and they’re at home for this one. It feels like a pick’em or a one-point line for the Texans, but the Bills have made a lot of money for people in the last few years.”

The Bills are drawing 72% of bets and 75% of the money on the spread at DraftKings as of Thursday afternoon.

The Texans are fresh off a 24-20 win over the Jaguars and a game-winning drive from quarterback C.J. Stroud, who is now tied for third in MVP odds at DraftKings at +800. Wide receiver Nico Collins continued his stellar start to the year with 12 receptions for 151 yards and a touchdown. His league-leading 489 receiving yards through the first four weeks are one hundred more than the next closest player. He is now the prohibitive favorite to lead the league in that category (+275) at Caesars, after opening behind 11 others at (+2000).

Another Houston receiver looks to dominate the storyline in this matchup, however, as Stefon Diggs takes on the Bills team that traded him in the offseason. Avello anticipates his player props will be heavily bet in this game.

Diggs’ current receptions line is at 5.5, the same as last week. It closed below that number in each of his previous two games. His receiving yards total is at 56.5, down from last week, but should increase as more action comes in closer to game time.

The total is up to 47.5, half a point higher than where it opened. At DraftKings, 76% of bets and 57% of the money are on the over as of Thursday afternoon.

Colts at Jaguars

The Jaguars (0-4 SU/2-2 ATS) are -2.5 at home against the Colts (2-2 SU/3-1 ATS) in Week 5, with some books offering -3 as of Thursday afternoon. This line opened at Jaguars -2.5.

At DraftKings, 44% of bets and 57% of the money on the spread are on Jacksonville.

“Jacksonville hasn’t even won a game yet, and they’re getting bet up to three-point favorites at home against a .500 team,” Avello said. “Jacksonville could have had a couple of wins very easily, but they don’t have them, and they need to win badly. I think that’s one of the reasons this game is getting pushed the way it is. This looks like a good spot for them.”

Feazel agreed, “Jacksonville at 0-4 is still being treated like a 2-2 team when it comes to market pricing.”

The Jaguars are coming off a last-minute 24-20 loss to the Texans in Week 4. They struggled to contain Houston’s air attack, giving up 345 passing yards, including a game-winning drive. At a 42% cover rate, quarterback Trevor Lawrence’s record ATS is the worst of any quarterback since he was drafted. He is 5-1 ATS vs. the Colts in his career, however.

Indianapolis handed the Steelers their first loss of the season with a 27-24 victory in Week 4. They go into this matchup with uncertainty regarding the quarterback position, as veteran Joe Flacco stepped in for an injured Anthony Richardson in that game. He threw for two touchdowns with no turnovers. Richardson was listed as a limited participant in Wednesday’s practice, a situation oddsmakers continue to monitor.

“His status will play a big role as to where this line is headed,” Feazel said.

The total is up to 46, from the opening line of 44.5. At DraftKings, 39% of bets and 56% of the money are on the over, as of Thursday afternoon.

Panthers at Bears

The Bears (2-2 SU/2-1-1 ATS) are down to -4 as they host the Panthers (1-3 SU/1-3 ATS) in Week 5. This line briefly bounced to Bears -3.5 after opening at -5.

That’s despite action their way. The Bears are drawing 52% of bets and 51% of the money on the spread at DraftKings as of Thursday afternoon.

“I would think that the public will continue to give back the Bears, who have played OK football and home-field advantage could be a strong point for this team,” Avello said. “They are certainly higher in our power ratings than Carolina, and I think we’ll need the Panthers on Sunday.”

The Panthers are coming off a 34-24 loss to the Bengals in which Andy Dalton threw for 220 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception. The team has totaled 60 points through its first two games since benching Bryce Young, just under the 61 he put together in seven starts.

Meanwhile, Bears rookie quarterback Caleb Williams led Chicago to a 24-18 win over the Rams in Week 4. Williams avoided turnover-worthy plays for the first time in his career, bringing Chicago to its second straight win.

“The Bears are improving on offense compared to the first couple games of the year where they couldn’t get anything going,” Feazel said. “I expect this line to be driven up prior to kickoff.”

The total is down to 41, a significant drop from where it opened at 45.5. At DraftKings, 50% of bets and 80% of the money are on the under as of Thursday afternoon.

Dolphins at Patriots

The Dolphins (1-3 SU/0-4 ATS) moved to +1 underdogs after opening at -1 against the Patriots (1-3 SU/1-2-1 ATS) in this AFC North clash. As of Thursday, this was back to Dolphins -1. This projects to be a low-scoring affair, with the lowest total of the week so far at 36.5.

The Patriots are drawing 65% of bets and 64% of the money on the spread at DraftKings as of Thursday afternoon. It is shaping up to be one of the least-bet games of the week at sportsbooks.

“When the Patriots are a favorite, you know something’s not right with the other team,” Avello said. “Either that team is really weak, not playing well, or has a lot of injuries, and that’s a combination of all of that for the Dolphins right now.”

Miami is fresh off a 31-12 loss to the Titans, the team’s seventh game without Tua Tagovailoa in the Mike McDaniel era. The Dolphins have struggled to put together an offense without him; it was their sixth time producing less than 21 points in those seven games. Tyler Huntley finished 14-of-22 with just 96 passing yards, as Miami became the first team since the 0-16 2017 Browns to never snap the ball with a lead through the first four weeks of the season. They are averaging an NFL-worst 11.3 points per game this season.

Huntley will start again in Week 5, with Tagovailoa out until at least Week 8.

The Patriots are coming off a 30-13 loss to the 49ers. Their offense is struggling as well and is right behind Miami for worst in the league with 13 points per game.

The total for this game is down to 36.5, which is where it opened, though some books briefly offered 35.5 on Wednesday. As of Thursday afternoon, that is the second-lowest total of the week.

At DraftKings, 63% of bets and 83% of money are on the under as of Thursday afternoon. Since 2020, totals of 37 or lower are 73% to the under.

Cardinals at 49ers

The San Francisco 49ers (2-2 SU/2-2 ATS) are back to -7.5 at home against the Cardinals (1-3 SU/2-2 ATS), their third week in a row as big favorites despite a rash of injuries. That is back to where this opened after falling to 7 at some sportsbooks on Wednesday.

The Cardinals have drawn 49% of bets and 70% of the money on the spread at DraftKings as of Thursday afternoon.

Barring big injury news, this should close as the largest spread of the week. There has only been one double-digit favorite so far this season, the 49ers in Week 4, who trounced New England 30-13, delivering a rare cover for favorites.

Underdogs of six points or more are 14-2-1 ATS and 9-8 SU through Week 4, on pace for an NFL record. That’s delivered big for sportsbooks, especially with how popular it is to tease down point spreads or bet the moneyline on big favorites in parlays.

“Looking at some of the favorites that have lost so far this year, you say, the 49ers are at home, where they very rarely lose, against the Cardinals, who are really struggling. How could the 49ers not win this one? Well, that’s what’s been happening so far in the first couple of weeks of the NFL,” Avello said. “We’ll probably have a lot of money on the 49ers moneyline and teasers, but it’s a tough call against the number.”

Arizona is coming off an upset 42-14 loss to the Commanders, where Kyler Murray was sacked four times and disrupted 10 of his 29 dropbacks. He finished 17-of-23 for 147 passing yards and a touchdown.

This NFC West clash projects to be one of the higher-scoring games during this season of low scoring. The total for this game is 50, up from where it opened at 49. At DraftKings, 53% of bets and 62% of the money are on the under as of Thursday afternoon.

Raiders at Broncos

The Broncos (2-2 SU/3-1 ATS) are up to -2.5 in this AFC West clash against the Raiders (2-2 SU/2-2 ATS), a notable jump from the opening line of Broncos -1.

The Broncos are drawing 57% of bets and 58% of the money on the spread at DraftKings as of Thursday afternoon.

“Broncos are taking the money, but the Raiders have potential, and the Broncos are not that good So, this game is up for grabs with the Broncos getting the slight edge at home,” Avello said. “Both teams won close games last week, so it’s kind of a wash when you look at how both teams are coming into the game.”

The Raiders are coming off a 20-16 victory over the struggling Browns, in which they ran for 152 yards, surprising considering they entered as the worst statistical team in that category. They recorded three sacks despite playing without star defensive end Maxx Crosby, who is questionable for Week 5. They are 8-0 straight up and against the spread versus Denver since 2020.

The Broncos narrowly defeated the Jets 10-9 last week despite just 60 passing yards from rookie quarterback Bo Nix. He ranks 29th in completion percentage among all quarterbacks to attempt a pass this season and has Denver averaging just 15.5 points per game, the 28th lowest for a team this season. Fortunately for him, Denver’s defense is holding opponents to the third-fewest points per game at 13.8 through Week 4.

The total of 35.5 is down from the opening line of 36 and the lowest of the week so far. At DraftKings, 52% of bets and 55% of the money are on the under as of Thursday afternoon. Again, since 2020, totals of 37 or lower are 73% to the under.

Packers at Rams

The Packers (2-2 SU/2-2 ATS) are -3 on the road against the Rams (1-3 SU/1-3 ATS), which is where this opened, though some books briefly had Packers -3.5 earlier in the week.

The Packers are drawing 71% of bets and 69% of the money on the spread at DraftKings as of Thursday afternoon.

Green Bay is looking to rebound after a 31-29 loss to the Vikings in Week 4, which wasn’t close until late. It was Jordan Love’s first game back from injury. He finished 32-of-54 for 389 passing yards and four touchdowns but threw three interceptions.

“The only reason that the Packers are getting some play is the way they finished that game last week, making it close late, scoring in the third and fourth quarters,” Avello said. “If they didn’t do that and ended up losing 31-7 or something, they still might be a small favorite, but not by three [points].

The Rams are also looking to bounce back after a 24-19 loss to the Bears in Week 4. They were again without star receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, who have been ruled out of this matchup as well. Injuries have also plagued their pass protection, though Wednesday’s injury report included no offensive linemen. Their defense has struggled as well, allowing the most yards per play to opponents this season and the second-most points at 28.8.

The total is up to 49 from where it opened at 46. At DraftKings, 57% of bets and 92% of the money are on the over, as of Thursday afternoon.

Giants at Seahawks

The Seahawks (3-1 SU/3-1 ATS) are -6.5 favorites at home against the Giants (1-3 SU/2-2 ATS), a line that opened at that number before briefly bouncing to six points on Wednesday.

Despite the historically poor start for teams favored by a touchdown or more, the public is backing the favorite in this spot so far.

At DraftKings, 71% of bets and 68% of the money on the spread are on Seattle as of Thursday afternoon.

“This is a game to be careful with,” Avello said. “I think the general public will end up laying the six with Seattle at home, 3-1, playing well and scoring points, but I look at it a little differently. The Giants have always traditionally been a good road dog team.”

The Seahawks are coming off a 42-29 loss to the Lions on Monday night, in which they allowed opposing quarterback Jared Goff to go a perfect 18-for-18 for 292 passing yards. Seattle quarterback Geno Smith did his part, going 38-of-56 for 395 passing yards, but an early fumble from DK Metcalf put the Seahawks in a 14-point hole they couldn’t dig out of.

The Giants are coming off a 20-15 loss to the Cowboys last Thursday in which they, once again, failed to find the end zone. New York did manage to cover, however, and is 2-0 ATS since breaking the longest active losing streak in the league. Rookie wide receiver Malik Nabers continued his stellar start to his career, finishing with 115 receiving yards and 12 receptions. His status for this week is very much in question, however, as he exited Thursday’s loss late with a concussion and missed practice on Wednesday.

Nabers has registered 52 targets this season, tied for the most of any rookie through his first four games. Only two other wide receivers on New York’s roster have targets this season.

“If it comes out that Nabers is out, this line will probably go up to seven because he’s one of the few weapons the Giants have,” Avello said.

The total for this game is 43.5, which is right around where it opened at most sportsbooks. At DraftKings, 60% of bets and 66% of the money are on the over.

NFL Sunday Night Football matchup & analysis

Cowboys at Steelers

Throughout the week, Steelers (3-1 SU/3-1 ATS) were anywhere from -1.5 to -2.5 in their Sunday Night Football matchup against the Cowboys (2-2 SU/1-3 ATS). Sportsbooks were split on those numbers as of Thursday afternoon, in what is proving to be one of the more polarizing games of the week to handicap.

The Cowboys are drawing 62% of bets and 49% of the money at DraftKings as of Thursday afternoon.

“It’s rare that you get points with the Cowboys against the Steelers, but they may get a play here from the general public,” Avello said. “They may get played on the moneyline, but our bettors taking the plus here.”

The Cowboys are coming off a narrow 20-15 victory over the Giants last Thursday. Their rush defense bounced back after a porous start to the season, limiting New York to just 26 rushing yards. They are allowing the 21st most rushing yards to opponents this season and have faired even worse when it comes to running the ball themselves, ranking dead last in rushing yards per game.

The Steelers, meanwhile, lead the league in rushing attempts and boast the NFL’s second-best defense against the run. They will look to bounce back at home after suffering their first loss of the season, 24-27, to the Colts in Week 4. Quarterback Justin Fields, who did not open the season as the starter, had his best game as a Steeler, finishing 22-of-34 for 312 passing yards, 55 rushing yards, and three total touchdowns.

For his career, Fields is 0-22 straight up when opposing teams score 20 points or more. He is 13-0 when they score 19 or fewer.

Oddsmakers will be closely watching the status of star Dallas edge rusher Micah Parsons, who exited Week 4’s win with an ankle injury and did not practice Wednesday. Brandin Cooks is also questionable to start, which could leave the Cowboys thin at receiver behind CeeDee Lamb.

The total is up to 44, up from where it opened at 41. At DraftKings, 52% of bets and 76% of money are on the under as of Thursday afternoon.

I’m not sure why the total is moving up with the way these two teams have played,” Avello said. “But who knows, maybe this game opens up more than we’ve seen so far.”

NFL Monday Night Football matchup & analysis

Saints at Chiefs

The Chiefs (4-0 SU/3-1 ATS) are -5.5 in their Monday Night Football matchup against the Saints (2-2 SU/3-1 ATS) in Week 5, which is where it has been all week. That is down from the lookahead line of Chiefs -8 at some sportsbooks.

The Chiefs are drawing 36% of bets and 56% of the money on the spread at DraftKings, as of Thursday evening.

“It’s a low point spread for the Chiefs at home against the Saints. You’d think it would be a touchdown, but it’s not,” Avello said. “The sharps bet the Saints early, thinking they’ll hang around, and it seems like everyone has hung around with the Chiefs so far.”

The Chiefs remain one of the NFL’s two unbeaten teams after a hard-fought 17-10 road victory against the Chargers in Week 4. The Super Bowl favorites have struggled to separate themselves despite their record. It was their fourth-straight one-score game this season, the first time that’s happened since 2020. Patrick Mahomes is averaging the fewest yards per game of his career, and his passing yards line of 232.5 this week is the lowest since his first start in 2018.

He will be without his top target Rashee Rice, whom the team placed on injured reserve Thursday following a knee injury from colliding with Mahomes in Week 4. His absence appears to have been already priced into the line, however, as it did not move following the news.

Between injuries, underproduction, and inexperience, Kansas City was already thin at receiver.

The Saints are coming off a last-minute 26-24 field goal loss to the Falcons. Quarterback Derek Carr played well under duress despite unimpressive stats, completing seven passes on 12 dropbacks under pressure, without any turnovers. He is the least profitable quarterback ATS since 2017, with a record of 24-35-2.

The total is at 43 as of Thursday evening. It briefly climbed to 44 earlier in the week before bouncing down to 42.5, which is just around where it opened. At DraftKings, 41% of bets and 81% of the money were on the under as of Thursday evening.

Photo by Associated Press/Brian Westerholt
Sam McQuillan Avatar

Sam McQuillan

Sam McQuillan joined Legal Sports Report as a lead writer in December 2022. He covers sports betting business news.His journalism career has spanned from covering presidential candidates to NFL Pro Bowlers and international rockstars.Prior to joining Legal Sports Report, Sam was a sports betting reporter with The Action Network, where he lead legislative coverage, wrote about the NBA and edited freelance news stories.Sam is an avid basketball fan and maintains his own blog about betting on the sport.As a tax reporter for Bloomberg in 2020, his coverage of fantasy sports earned him two national awards from the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing.Sam is a graduate of Penn State, where he covered basketball and hockey for the student-run Daily Collegian newspaper.

editorial guidelines

|

About Us

more articles like this