After a wild third week of regular season action, the NFL playoff picture continues to take shape.
There were a number of upsets last time around, leading to some substantial movement in NFL playoff odds. Many of the preseason contenders are still looking the part, while others haven’t been quite ready for primetime.
As we get ready for a busy NFL Week 4 slate, here’s what the seeds and matchups would look like if the postseason started today using the current playoff odds as a guide.
AFC playoff odds in Week 4
The table below has the latest playoff odds for AFC teams from bet365 Sportsbook, along with the implied probability for each team to reach the postseason and that team’s opponent for this week.
| Team | Playoff Odds | Implied Probability* | This Week |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -5000 | 93.28% | vs. Chargers |
| Buffalo Bills | -750 | 83.95% | vs. Ravens |
| Houston Texans | -390 | 75.73% | vs. Jaguars |
| New York Jets | -250 | 67.96% | vs. Broncos |
| Baltimore Ravens | -220 | 65.41% | vs. Bills |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | -150 | 57.09% | vs. Colts |
| Cincinnati Bengals | +115 | 44.25% | vs. Panthers |
| Los Angeles Chargers | +130 | 41.37% | vs. Chiefs |
| Indianapolis Colts | +190 | 32.81% | vs. Steelers |
| Miami Dolphins | +200 | 31.72% | vs. Titans |
| Cleveland Browns | +270 | 25.72% | vs. Raiders |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | +300 | 23.79% | vs. Texans |
| Las Vegas Raiders | +350 | 21.14% | vs. Browns |
| New England Patriots | +650 | 12.69% | vs. 49ers |
| Denver Broncos | +700 | 11.89% | vs. Jets |
| Tennessee Titans | +750 | 11.19% | vs. Dolphins |
Our implied probability calculation uses the sportsbook’s odds minus the vigorish charged by that sportsbook. An average online gambling calculator will provide you with the implied probability based on just the betting odds. By going a step further and accounting for the vig, we find a true implied probability in relation to the sportsbook’s odds.
The defending champion Chiefs have opened at 3-0 and remain comfortably atop the board. The Bills are also undefeated and move into the second slot, followed by the 2-1 Texans and 1-2 Ravens. Here is what the first round would look like based on the current odds:
- Bye: (1) Chiefs
- (2) Bills vs. (7) Bengals
- (3) Texans vs. (6) Steelers
- (4) Ravens vs. (5) Jets
Baltimore is behind the Jets in playoff odds but gets the nod for the four seed as the top-ranked AFC North club. New York is off to a 2-1 start and remains in the five seed.
The Steelers have surged into the sixth spot after a win over the Chargers ran their record to 3-0. The Bengals remain winless on the young season but are slightly ahead of 2-1 Los Angeles in playoff odds.
Behind the top seven squads, there has been a lot of jockeying for position. The next five clubs on the board are between +190 and +350, with the three teams at the back of the pack at +650 or greater.
This week, there are two matchups that could have a big impact on the board. The Chiefs and Chargers will square off in an AFC West battle, while the Bills and Ravens will tangle on Sunday Night Football.
At BetMGM Sportsbook, the Chiefs continue to have the highest share of betting handle to win the conference at 28.7%. Kansas City is also the favorite in 2025 Super Bowl odds.
NFC playoff odds in Week 4
Playoff odds for the NFC teams from bet365 Sportsbook are in the table below, along with each squad’s implied probability of reaching the postseason and this week’s opponent.
| Team | Playoff Odds | Implied Probability* | This Week |
| Philadelphia Eagles | -500 | 77.44% | vs. Buccaneers |
| San Francisco 49ers | -250 | 66.38% | vs. Patriots |
| Detroit Lions | -210 | 62.95% | vs. Seahawks |
| Minnesota Vikings | -190 | 60.89% | vs. Packers |
| New Orleans Saints | -170 | 58.51% | vs. Falcons |
| Seattle Seahawks | -150 | 55.76% | vs. Lions |
| Green Bay Packers | -140 | 54.21% | vs. Vikings |
| Atlanta Falcons | -135 | 53.39% | vs. Saints |
| Dallas Cowboys | -115 | 49.71% | vs. Giants |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +120 | 42.24% | vs. Eagles |
| Washington Commanders | +240 | 27.33% | vs. Cardinals |
| Arizona Cardinals | +250 | 26.55% | vs. Commanders |
| Chicago Bears | +260 | 25.81% | vs. Rams |
| Los Angeles Rams | +300 | 23.23% | vs. Bears |
| New York Giants | +1000 | 8.45% | vs. Cowboys |
| Carolina Panthers | +1200 | 7.15% | vs. Bengals |
Our implied probability calculation uses the sportsbook’s odds minus the vigorish charged by that sportsbook. An average online gambling calculator will provide you with the implied probability based on just the betting odds. By going a step further and accounting for the vig, we find a true implied probability in relation to the sportsbook’s odds.
The Eagles are 2-1 following a win over the Saints and have taken over as the favorite from the 1-2 49ers. The Lions are 2-1 and remain in third, followed by 2-1 New Orleans in fourth. Here is what a first round would look like based on the odds:
- Bye: (1) Eagles
- (2) 49ers vs. (7) Packers
- (3) Lions vs. (6) Seahawks
- (4) Saints vs. (5) Vikings
The Vikings have surged up the board following a sizzling 3-0 start. Current odds have Minnesota as the fifth seed, with the Saints getting the four spot as the top NFC South club.
The 2-1 Packers and 3-0 Seahawks lead the way for the sixth and seventh seeds. However, there are three teams lurking right behind them at between -135 and +120.
Further down the board, there’s a clear line in the sand for the remainder of the conference. Four teams are at +300 or less, while Giants and Panthers are in the also-ran role at +1000 or greater.
There are several NFC vs. NFC matchups on tap this week that will likely shake up next week’s rankings: Eagles vs. Buccaneers, Lions vs. Seahawks, Vikings vs. Packers, and Saints vs. Falcons.
In terms of betting handle, the Lions remain the top choice at BetMGM with 41%. Detroit is currently fifth on the board in Super Bowl 59 odds, behind the Chiefs, 49ers, Bills, and Eagles.
Projected Super Bowl 59 matchups for Week 4
As we get ready for Week 4 action, Super Bowl odds continue to take shape. At most legal online sportsbooks, just four teams have odds of +1200 or less to win the big game.
- Chiefs (+500)
- 49ers (+750)
- Bills (+800)
- Eagles (+1200)
Based on the latest lines, potential matchups for the 2025 Super Bowl include the following:
- Chiefs vs. 49ers
- Chiefs vs. Eagles
- 49ers vs. Bills
- Bills vs. Eagles
Behind the four leaders, a competitive race is underway for the fifth spot on the board. The Lions (+1300) hold the edge for now, ahead of the Ravens (+1400), Texans (+1500), and Jets (+1800).
BetMGM notes that since the end of Week 3, the Bills have attracted a lot of attention from bettors, with 37% of Super Bowl futures bets and 52% of total handle heading that way
