NFL Week 4 Odds Leave Few Big Favorites On The Board

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Sam McQuillan

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NFL Week 4 Odds Leave Few Big Favorites On The Board
NFL Week 4 spreads, moneylines, & totals
NFL Sunday matchups & odds
NFL SNF odds
NFL MNF odds

NFL Week 4 betting odds feature just three spreads of a touchdown or more as big favorites continue their historically disappointing start. Public-backed teams have been on the losing end of many of those upsets, driving sportsbooks to unusually high win rates amid a steady decline in scoring league-wide.

Week 4 marks the season’s first double-digit favorite, the latest we’ve gone into a season without one.

Public-backed teams are off to a rough 17-30-1 start against the spread, the worst performance in the multi-state legal sports betting era. Underdogs of a touchdown or more are 12-1 ATS through Week 3 — their best start in NFL history. Notably, underdogs of seven points or more are undefeated, starting the season 4-0 straight up, which has not happened since before the NFL-AFL merger.

Five teams opened as six-point favorites or higher at NFL betting sites heading into Week 4, but by Thursday, only three such games remain:

Teams are averaging just 21.1 points per game through the first three weeks, on pace for the league’s fourth consecutive year of scoring declines and the lowest-scoring season since 2006. Totals are trending under, with 57% of games so far going under, and Week 4 features just one total of 50 points or more.

Here’s a comprehensive breakdown of Week 4 odds, spreads, and betting trends, with insights from oddsmakers across the market. Check back for updates throughout the week.

NFL Week 4 live spreads, moneylines, & totals

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NFL Week 4 Thursday night matchup and odds

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants

The Cowboys would have been the fourth team favored by a touchdown this week, but ahead of Thursday Night Football, some sharp money’s trickled in on the Giants, moving this line from as high as Cowboys -6.5 to as low as -5 at some sportsbooks.

At Fanatics, 68% of money on the spread was on Cowboys -5.5, as of Thursday afternoon.

“A lot of folks are liking Dallas after they moved inside the touchdown mark,” noted Eric Useloff, a trader at Fanatics. “I could see this maybe moving back towards that touchdown mark before kickoff.”

The Cowboys are looking to bounce back after their second loss in a row, a 28-25 defeat to the Ravens. That loss, coupled with how the Browns, the one team Dallas has beaten, have looked since, resulted in them opening as lower favorites than the lookahead line of -7, according to Eric Fenstermaker, US head of trading at Caesars Sportsbook.

“I’m not really surprised this moved down. I was more surprised there were 6.5s out there when this opened,” Fenstermaker said. “They looked good against the Browns in the first week, but Cleveland looks absolutely atrocious [now], so you can’t read into their one win as much.”

The Giants are coming off their first win of the season, a 21-15 victory against the Browns. Quarterback Daniel Jones had his best game of the season, finishing 24-of-34 for 236 passing yards and two touchdowns. Both of those were to rookie wide receiver Malik Nabers, who led the game with eight catches for 78 receiving yards.

The total is up to 45 at most sportsbooks, half a point up from where it opened. Bettors are relatively split on over/under at Fanatics, with 51% of the money on the under as of Thursday afternoon.

This will be one of the higher-bet games of the season so far, according to Fenstermaker, who noted that Dallas and New York typically attract larger bets because of their fanbases, but even more so during a standalone game.

NFL Week 4 Sunday matchups and odds

Denver Broncos at New York Jets

Public money on the Jets has moved them to the second-biggest favorites of the week. The Jets are a consensus -7.5 on Thursday, up from where they opened at -7 versus the Broncos.

Useloff of Fanatics Sportsbook anticipates the public to land on Denver’s spread by Sunday should this stay at 7.5. As of Thursday, 92% of moneyline handle was on the Jets (-370).

Just a reminder, favorites of seven points or higher are an NFL record 0-4 straight up this season.

“7.5 is one of those key numbers where you see action just blindly come in regardless of the team because the public understands these numbers are pertinent in football,” Useloff said. “Seven, 10, 14, three are all key numbers.”

This is Denver’s second straight week as a seven-point underdog and the first time a Sean Payton-led team’s been the underdog to start its first four games since 2006, his first year coaching the Saints. The Denver offense has lagged with rookie Bo Nix, who had his first game without two interceptions last week. He and the Broncos are coming off one of those four straight-up wins as big dogs, taking down the Buccaneers 26-7.

The Jets are playing on nine days’ rest after playing three games in 11 days to start the season. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers is 16-9-2 against the spread when playing on extra rest at home. He’s coming off his best win as a Jet, finishing 27-of-35 for 281 passing yards and two touchdowns against the Patriots. His defense held New England to just 139 yards, the fewest in a game this season.

“Aaron Rodgers and the Jets looked like they found something on Thursday,” Fenstermaker said. “This may be similar to the New England game because I just don’t think Bo Nix against that Jets defense will be able to sustain enough of a drive to hang within this number.”

This total is up to 39.5 from where it opened at 38.

Cincinnati Bengals at Carolina Panthers

Andy Dalton takes on his former team after leading the Panthers to their first win in 280 days. The Bengals, however, are still searching for their first win since last January and find themselves at -4.5 against a team that was +1800 to go winless at FanDuel just a few weeks ago.

To put that in perspective, the Carolina Panthers were less likely to win a game than the odds of hitting an eight-leg parlay with -110 odds on each leg.

This line has quickly moved down from where it opened at -7 before the Bengals lost to the Commanders on Monday night. They were another seven-point favorite to lose outright.

The Panthers, on their end, took down a big favorite of their own. In his first game taking over for Bryce Young, Dalton became the first quarterback to throw for over 300 yards and three touchdowns this season. Young had not surpassed 250 yards in any of his 18 starts.

As of Thursday, 74% of the money is on the Bengals’ spread at Fanatics, but sharp money has held back so far.

“I didn’t think the Bengals could go 0-4, but the Panthers getting to .500 may have been even more shocking if you’d told be that to start the season,” Useloff said. “So far the public’s on the Bengals getting right and trying to save what’s left of their season, but it hasn’t necessarily been the most shrewd action yet.”

“The Bengals open against some of the worst teams in the league. If they manage to lose to the Panthers, their season is pretty much over,” Fenstermaker said.

The total is up to 47.5 from where it opened at 44.5.

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Eagles odds had them down to -1.5 on the spread after opening at -3 in this rematch of last year’s NFC wild card game.

That’s where Fenstermaker of Caesars anticipated this line would move earlier this week.

The market is relatively split on the 1.5 spread at Fanatics. The Eagles had 62% of money on the spread when they were -2.5 earlier this week, according to Useloff. He expects more public money to come in on the Eagles, though in smaller bet sizes and this line to land at 2.5 or 3 by kickoff.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are coming off a 26-7 upset loss to the Broncos in which they had been seven-point favorites. They totaled just 190 yards of offense, and quarterback Baker Mayfield was sacked seven times.

The Eagles held on late to secure a 15-12 grind-out victory against the Saints on Sunday. They failed to convert on two fourth downs, both within field goal distance, leading bookmakers to question head coach Nick Sirianni’s decision-making. The Eagles managed to cover as -2.5 favorites, though quarterback Jalen Hurts is still an NFL-worst 7-14-1 ATS as an away favorite for his career.

“It’s a weird game. I don’t want to be involved in this one at all,” Fenstermaker said. “If I did, it would be on Tampa because these Philly games are hard to think about. But the Buccaneers look like Jekyll and Hyde out there. They looked great, then all of a sudden, Box Nix is carving them up.”

The total is seeing the biggest impact from the tropical storm hitting the Tampa region throughout the week.

On Thursday, the total was 42.5 at some sportsbooks, a steep decline from its opening of 47.5. Fanatics noted sharp action on the under.

Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears

The Bears are -3 favorites against the Rams after opening at -1.5 at most sportsbooks.

This has been one of the more interesting games for oddsmakers to price, considering the number of injuries on one side and inexperience on the other, according to Useloff.

The Rams are 1-2 after pulling off a 14-point comeback against the 49ers in Week 3. They were another seven-point underdog that won outright. They look to again be without star receivers Puka Nacua, who is on IR, and Cooper Kupp, who hasn’t practiced this week, along with several starters on their offensive line, which grades out as the worst pass-blocking unit in the league, according to PFF.

Since 2016, teams coming off a 14-point comeback are 39-70-1 ATS in their next game.

Rookie quarterback Caleb Williams threw his first touchdown pass in Chicago’s Week 3 loss to the Colts. He finished a career-best 33-of-52 for 363 passing yards but added two interceptions and lost a fumble late that led to Indy’s game-sealing touchdown.

“This is an ugly game. The Bears haven’t looked sharp by any means, and you have an experienced coaching staff in LA, but it’s also in Chicago,” Useloff said. “We’re seeing a little money on the Rams at 3 flat, which probably stems from the fact that they have looked a bit better, but right now, they have so many injuries.”

This total is down to 40.5 after opening at 41.5.

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons

One of many divisional matchups, the Falcons were favored by anywhere from -1.5 to 2.5 against the Saints as of Thursday.

This opened at Falcons -1.5 but was down to a pick’em before Atlanta’s 22-17 loss to the Super Bowl favorite Chiefs on Sunday Night Football. Quarterback Kirk Cousins finished 20-of-29 for 230 passing yards, a touchdown, and an interception, his best stats since returning from a torn Achilles.

The Saints will be in Atlanta after a grueling 15-12 loss to the Eagles. They look to still be hurting, as four starters, including running back Alvin Kamara and linebacker Demario Davis, did not practice on Wednesday. After scoring 91 points through the first two weeks, New Orleans came back down to earth with just one touchdown in Week 3. Its defense, meanwhile, gave up 460 yards, the third-most in a game this season.

Not much money has come in on the spread yet at Fanatics, but so far, 64% of moneyline handle is on the Saints, not unusual for slight underdogs in divisional games.

“I would expect the Saints money to continue coming in as dogs getting plus money,” Useloff said.

The total has now dropped to 42.5 from where it opened at 44.5, with more money coming in on the under.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans

Another divisional matchup, this would mark the first time in 12 years the Texans have been favored in each of their first four games to start the season.

The Texans are -6 at most sportsbooks as of Thursday afternoon, up from where they opened at -4.5.

Useloff expects money to continue to go Houston’s way on the spread.

The Texans are coming off a 34-7 road upset to the Vikings in Week 3 but still have the eighth-shortest odds of any team to win the Super Bowl at most sportsbooks.

The Jaguars are sitting at the bottom of the AFC South a 47-10 loss to the Bills on Monday night. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence is bottom-five in QBR to start the year and has already been sacked 11 times. He’s now +25000 to win the MVP, after opening the season at +2500 at BetMGM.

Texans odds would likely have them as seven-point favorites against the Jaguars had their offense produced more than a touchdown against Minnesota, according to Fenstermaker.

“Houston’s division is bad, so you can’t react too much,” Fenstermaker said. “If they beat the Jags, it should pretty much put them as the huge favorite in that division. I think the number is short here myself, but I’d imagine we’re gonna need the Jags as one of our bigger decisions of the week.”

The total is sitting at 45.5, right where it opened a few points down from the lookahead line of 47.5.

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers

Yet another divisional matchup, the Packers were -2.5 or -3 favorites at sportsbooks on Thursday. This line briefly fell to -2 to start the week, but it was back at -2.5 at most sportsbooks by Wednesday as handle’s gone Green Bay’s way.

At Fanatics, 71% of the money is on the Packers -2.5 as of Thursday morning, while 78% is on the Vikings moneyline.

“It makes sense in terms of the psychology of the bettor. A lot of folks will be on the favorite on that key 2.5 number. It’s a good number to be firm on. But a lot will just take the moneyline on the underdog,” Useloff said.

Quarterback Jordan Love was listed as a limited participant in practice on the injury report, though Green Bay waited until late last week to rule him out. This reflects that Love may be close to returning, but more so that Green Bay’s backup may not be as bad as people thought, according to Fenstermaker.

The Packers upset the Titans 30-14 to secure Malik Willis’ second victory of the season and revenge against the team that traded him away in August. He finished 13-of-19 for 202 passing yards and a touchdown.

The Vikings are tied for an NFL-best 3-0 ATS and are 3-0 after blowing out a Texans team with the fourth shortest odds to win the Super Bowl going into Week 3. Under new defensive coordinator Brian Flores, their defense is first in pressures, first in sacks, and second in interceptions this season.

“The Vikings could be a good team to back in this spot against either an inexperienced Malik Willis or hobbled Jordan Love, who hasn’t played that many games in his career either,” Useloff said.

The total is down to 43.5 at some sportsbooks, a point down from where it opened.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts

The Steelers are -1.5 favorites against the Colts after finding themselves on the other side of this line when it opened.

At Fanatics, 75% of the money on the spread is on the Steelers. When this line was Colts +1.5, 80% of the money was on Pittsburgh. This line has moved around quite a bit, even going as high as Steelers -2.5 at some places earlier in the week.

The Steelers are 3-0 overall and ATS after relying heavily on their defense and conservative offense to start the season. They are holding opponents to the fewest yards per game and rank second in time of possession, behind only the 49ers.

The Colts, meanwhile, rank dead last in time of possession. They held on late against the Bears in Week 3 to grab their first win of the season. Running back Jonathan Taylor rushed for over 100 yards for his second straight game. They overcame two interceptions from second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson, who ranks last among all starters in QBR this season.

“The Steelers defense is obviously elite, but I don’t like what I see out of Indy at all,” Fenstermaker said. “It looks like they just won by default because the Bears are even worse. I can’t see Anthony Richardson getting much cooking against this defense.”

The total is up to 39.5 after opening at 38.5, a touchdown down from the lookahead line of 44.5.

New England Patriots at San Francisco 49ers

This is Week 4’s largest spread, and if the 49ers close at –10.5, where they were Thursday, they will be 2024’s first double-digit favorite.

At Fanatics, 99% of moneyline handle is on the 49ers at -575, on a considerable amount of volume, according to Useloff. So far, 75% of money on the spread is on 49ers -10.5.

This is the latest a season has ever gone without at least one double-digit favorite, according to SportsOddsHistory.com. And the first one would happen to be a matchup between one of the league’s lowest-projected win totals going in and a Super Bowl contender.

The 49ers are 1-2 and banged up after losing in dramatic fashion to the Rams, a game in which they led for 58.5 minutes. They were another seven-point favorite to lose outright this season.

They could again be without a number of key players, as Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and Trent Williams each missed practice on Wednesday. George Kittle was listed as a limited participant. It is the 49ers’ first time under .500 since Brock Purdy became the starting quarterback in 2022.

The Patriots are also 1-2 and coming off a loss. They will be playing on nine days of rest after nearly going scoreless against the Jets on Thursday Night Football in Week 3. Rookie quarterback Drake Maye came in late after Jacoby Brissett was sacked five times. However, coach Jerod Mayo has shown no signs of making a permanent switch so far, and Brissett is expected to start Week 4.

This total is at 40.5 on Thursday, right where it opened, 4.5 points down from the lookahead line of 45.

Washington Commanders at Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals are 3.5-point favorites against the Commanders as of Thursday afternoon, down from their opening line of -4.5.

At Fanatics, 63% of the money is on the Cardinals, at the -3.5 mark, but it has fluctuated through the week.

“At one point, it was 4.5 and even 5.5 for a split second for Arizona, but it’s come back down,” Useloff said. “I think that means it could move towards Arizona again at some point before the kick.”

Washington heads into this game on short rest, coming off a 38-33 upset win in Cincinnati. Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels now leads the NFL in completion percentage at 80.3% and put on a historic prime-time debut, finishing 23-of-25 for 254 passing yards and two touchdowns, and rushing for another.

The Commanders will take on a 1-2 Arizona team that is allowing a league-high 75% completion rate to opposing quarterbacks. Quarterback Kyler Murray has Arizona ranked fourth in total offense, but the team’s defense has been a weak spot, giving up the 26th most yards per rush.

This total is 50.5, which would be the highest line of the week, up from where it opened at 48.5. Totals of 50+ are 4-0 to the under this season.

At Fanatics, 90% of the money was on the over as of Thursday afternoon.

Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers

The Chiefs were a consensus -7.5 against the Chargers on Thursday afternoon, down from their opening line of -8.5. It’s one of the few games with a spread of over a touchdown this week.

The Chargers are 2-1 after the Steelers handed them their first loss in Week 3. Los Angeles managed only 168 yards of offense, and quarterback Justin Herbert left the game with an ankle injury. He is reportedly making progress and was listed as a limited participant in practice on Wednesday, but even with him, the Chargers rank just 25th in yards this season.

Their defense, however, has been dominant, holding opponents to the third-fewest points per game.

Kansas City, meanwhile, secured a narrow victory Monday over the Falcons. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes finished 26-of-39 for 217 passing yards, two touchdowns, and an interception, while second-year receiver Rashee Rice notched 110 receiving yards and a touchdown.

Mahomes has been dominant in divisional matchups, holding a 16-1 straight-up record on the road against AFC West opponents.

The total for this game is 39.5, up slightly from where it opened at 38.5. That would be the lowest total ever on a regular season game between Herbert and Mahomes.

Cleveland Browns at Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders were up to –1.5 on Thursday afternoon after opening as +1.5 underdogs to the Browns. Some sportsbooks have the Raiders as high as -2.

Cleveland enters the game at 1-2 after losing to the Giants and handing Daniel Jones his first win in over a year. Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson has struggled, to say the least, this season, ranking 26th in passing yards and 29th in completion percentage.

Star edge rusher Myles Garrett left the game with an injury but was listed as a limited participant in practice Wednesday.

Raiders are coming off one of the biggest losses of the week, a 36-22 defeat to the Panthers, who played their first game since benching quarterback Bryce Young. It was Carolina’s first win since last December.

“The Raiders may have been caught like deer in the headlights with the Panthers figuring things out with Dalton. They could get right next week,” Fenstermaker said.

Caesars will likely need the Browns in this one, according to Fenstermaker.

The total was down to 37 at most sportsbooks by Thursday afternoon, half a point from where it opened.

NFL Sunday Night Football odds

Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens are consensus -2.5 favorites at every major sportsbook as of Thursday evening, returning to their opening line after briefly dipping to -1.5 earlier in the week.

They take on tough opponent in the 3-0 Bills, who are fresh off a 47-10 win against the Jaguars on Monday night. Quarterback Josh Allen threw four touchdown passes, vaulting himself to the top of NFL MVP odds. He’s now the +200 favorite at BetMGM, after beginning the week at +450 behind Mahomes.

Baltimore’s defense, particularly its ability to stop the run, has been a major factor. They’re allowing just 2.8 yards per carry, the fewest in the NFL, and will face a Bills team that leans on both Josh Allen’s arm and their ground game. Baltimore has put together a solid run game of its own as of late, as running back Derrick Henry is coming off a season-high 151 yards in Sunday’s win over the Cowboys.

The Bills are coming into this game after scoring 30+ points in each of their first three contests, good for the highest-scoring team in the league. Despite the offensive firepower, Buffalo finds itself as an underdog on the road against Baltimore.

The total for this game opened at 46.5 and has held steady all week.

NFL Monday Night Football odds

Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins are -1.5 favorites at most sportsbooks, with some lines dropping as low as -1 on Thursday evening.

Miami continues to face uncertainty at quarterback as Skylar Thompson, who suffered a chest injury in their Week 3 loss to the Seahawks, is expected to start in place of the injured Tua Tagovailoa. Thompson was listed as a participant in Wednesday’s practice, likely keeping third-string Tim Boyle on the sideline for now.

On the other side, Tennessee is struggling at 0-3, with rookie quarterback Will Levis leading the league in turnovers. The Titans have a chance to become just the 13th team in NFL history to start a season 0-3 and still be favored on the road. They are looking to turn things around after a disappointing 30-14 loss to the Packers in Week 3.

“Our Monday Night Football action would be horrible if this was standalone,” Fenstermaker said. “You wouldn’t be getting big bets down on Will Levis vs. Tim Boyle and good luck picking a winner.”

Head coach Mike McDaniel is 2-4 ATS with backups to Tagovailoa. Notably, Miami has scored 21 points or fewer in five of those games without Tagovailoa.

This is one of the lowest totals of the week at 36.5, down a point from where it opened.

Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions

The Lions are consensus -3.5 favorites as of Thursday afternoon, down from where this opened at Lions -4.5 at most sportsbooks.

This is Seattle’s first game as an underdog all year. The Seahawks are coming off a commanding 24-3 victory over the Dolphins, where quarterback Geno Smith finished 33-of-44 for 289 passing yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions.

On the other side, the Lions secured a hard-fought 20-13 win over the Cardinals, relying heavily on their run game. David Montgomery rushed for 106 yards and a touchdown, while Jahmyr Gibbs added 83 yards on the ground. Detroit, now 2-1 both straight up and ATS, bounced back nicely after a disappointing Week 2 home loss to Tampa Bay. Although the Lions didn’t score in the second half against Arizona, they managed to hold on for the victory as three-point road favorites.

Lions quarterback Jared Goff has faced Seattle three times since 2020 and has lost all three matchups. However, he has been stellar in primetime games at home with an 8-0 record, including 4-0 as a Lion at Ford Field.

The total is at 46.5, consistent with its opening line.

Photo by Associated Press/Adam Hunger
Sam McQuillan Avatar

Sam McQuillan

Sam McQuillan joined Legal Sports Report as a lead writer in December 2022. He covers sports betting business news.His journalism career has spanned from covering presidential candidates to NFL Pro Bowlers and international rockstars.Prior to joining Legal Sports Report, Sam was a sports betting reporter with The Action Network, where he lead legislative coverage, wrote about the NBA and edited freelance news stories.Sam is an avid basketball fan and maintains his own blog about betting on the sport.As a tax reporter for Bloomberg in 2020, his coverage of fantasy sports earned him two national awards from the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing.Sam is a graduate of Penn State, where he covered basketball and hockey for the student-run Daily Collegian newspaper.

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