As we count down to NFL Week 1 games, clear preseason expectations are in place for all 32 teams.
According to the latest NFL win total odds, eight teams have lines of 10 or more wins. Three teams have lines of six wins or fewer, which leaves 21 teams in the middle of the two extremes.
Meanwhile, when looking at NFL betting sites, many still have lookahead lines posted for all 18 weeks of regular season action. When we examined how often teams were the favorites compared to their win total lines, we uncovered some notable discrepancies.
NFL win totals vs. lookahead game lines
The table below shows the NFL win total line for each team. The next column has the number of games in which the team is the favorite to win according to lookahead lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, followed by the difference between the two numbers.
For eight of the teams, there’s only a half-win difference between the two numbers. Meanwhile, a whopping 21 teams are plus or minus 2.5 wins when comparing their win total lines to the number of games in which they are favored.
| Team | Win Total | Games as Favorite | Difference |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 11.5 on FanDuel | 16 | +4.5 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 11.5 on FanDuel | 17 | +5.5 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 11.5 on FanDuel | 14 | +2.5 |
| Detroit Lions | 10.5 on FanDuel | 13 | +2.5 |
| Buffalo Bills | 10.5 on FanDuel | 10 | -0.5 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 10.5 on FanDuel | 14 | +3.5 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 10.5 on FanDuel | 15 | +4.5 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 10.5 on FanDuel | 13 | +2.5 |
| Green Bay Packers | 9.5 on FanDuel | 12 | +2.5 |
| Miami Dolphins | 9.5 on Consensus | 10 | +0.5 |
| Houston Texans | 9.5 on FanDuel | 11 | +1.5 |
| New York Jets | 9.5 on FanDuel | 14 | +4.5 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 9.5 on FanDuel | 14 | +4.5 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 8.5 on FanDuel | 11 | +2.5 |
| Cleveland Browns | 8.5 on FanDuel | 8 | -0.5 |
| Chicago Bears | 8.5 on FanDuel | 10 | +1.5 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 8.5 on FanDuel | 9 | +0.5 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 8.5 on FanDuel | 9 | +0.5 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 8.5 on FanDuel | 8 | -0.5 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 7.5 on FanDuel | 7 | -0.5 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 7.5 on FanDuel | 5 | -2.5 |
| New Orleans Saints | 8.5 on Consensus | 7 | -0.5 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 7.5 on FanDuel | 6 | -1.5 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 7.5 on FanDuel | 5 | -2.5 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 7.5 on FanDuel | 3 | -3.5 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 6.5 on FanDuel | 2 | -4.5 |
| Washington Commanders | 6.5 on FanDuel | 3 | -3.5 |
| New York Giants | 6.5 on FanDuel | 3 | -3.5 |
| Tennessee Titans | 6.5 on FanDuel | 1 | -5.5 |
| Denver Broncos | 5.5 on FanDuel | 2 | -3.5 |
| Carolina Panthers | 4.5 on FanDuel | 0 | -5.5 |
| New England Patriots | 4.5 on FanDuel | 0 | -4.5 |
Chiefs, 49ers remain at head of the class
The Chiefs capped off last season with a thrilling overtime win over the 49ers at the big game. According to preseason Super Bowl odds, those same two teams are once again the favorites to win it all. For further confirmation of sportsbook opinion, we need look no further than the lookahead lines.
The 49ers are the favorites in all 17 of their games. The Chiefs are the favorites in 16 of theirs, with the lone exception being a Week 7 trip to San Francisco. The early point spread for that one has the 49ers as a two-point favorite. The two teams also have the highest win total lines on the board at 11.5 — along with the Ravens — followed by five squads at 10.5.
Naturally, the chances of either team going 17-0 or 16-1 are slim. The 2007 Patriots were the last team to make it through an entire regular season without a loss, finishing at 16-0 before advancing to the Super Bowl and falling to the Giants. The last one-loss team was the 2015 Panthers, who went 15-1 before ultimately losing to the Broncos at the big game.
Falcons, Jets poised to surprise?
Five teams are favored in 4.5 games more than their win total lines suggest. The Chiefs and 49ers are in that group, along with the Cowboys. Dallas is currently favored in 15 of 17 games. It’s the underdog for a Week 8 road trip to face the 49ers and for a Week 17 away game versus the Eagles.
The final two members of the club are the Falcons and Jets. Atlanta’s line for total wins is 9.5, yet the team is the favorite in 14 games. It’s the same for New York, which is the favorite in 14 games versus a win total of 9.5.
Other squads with a notable difference to the positive side include the Bengals, favored in 14 games versus a line of 10.5 total wins.
Steelers, Broncos attracting betting interest
Here are some of the key takeaways from NFL win total betting stats from BetMGM Sportsbook:
- Most tickets: Broncos (9.1% of tickets), Bears (7.7%), Steelers (5.9%)
- Most betting handle on overs: Steelers (12.1% of handle), Broncos (10.7%), Jets (7.6%)
- Most betting handle on unders: Bears (11.9% of handle), Cowboys (9.2%), Patriots (8.8%)
As we head toward NFL Week 1 games, the Steelers and Broncos attract the most handle for over bets. Pittsburgh has a line of 7.5 wins. However, lookahead lines have the team as the favorite in only six contests. Denver has one of the lowest lines for total wins at 5.5 and is currently only favored in two games. The Steelers went 10-7 and made the playoffs last season, while the Broncos wrapped with a record of 8-9.
For handle on the under, the Bears and Cowboys are leading the way. Chicago has a line of 8.5 wins and is the favorite in 10 games, a season after posting a record of 7-10. Offseason enthusiasm has been high following Chicago’s selection of Caleb Williams with the first overall pick of the NFL Draft.
The Cowboys won the NFC East a season ago with a record of 12-5 but flamed out in the NFL playoffs with an upset home loss to the Packers in the opener. Other teams attracting betting interest include the Jets on over 9.5 wins, a season after going 7-10. The Patriots are a popular under choice at 4.5 wins following a 4-13 campaign.
How many teams can we expect to hit 10+ wins?
The NFL switched to a 17-game schedule in 2021. The table below has a breakdown of total wins by team since that point.
| Season | 12+ wins | 10-11 wins | 7–9 wins | 6 or fewer |
| 2023 | 4 | 8 | 13 | 7 |
| 2022 | 7 | 2 | 16 | 7 |
| 2021 | 6 | 6 | 13 | 7 |
For the upcoming season, here’s how the lines for total wins shake out across the league:
- 10.5 wins or more: 8
- 6.5 to 9.5 wins: 21
- Fewer than 6.5 wins: 3
Over the last three seasons, between nine and 12 teams have managed to book double digits in the victory column. While it’s a small sample size, the recent trend suggests that there could be more teams with 10+ wins than the eight that sportsbooks are currently anticipating.
In each of the last three seasons in a row, seven teams have won six games or fewer. The current win totals have just three teams with lines lower than six: the Broncos (5.5), Panthers (5.5), and Patriots (4.5). If the trend holds, four other teams would be in line to have worse seasons than their current lines indicate.
