The early playoff picture is still coming into focus as we get set for NFL Week 5 action. Heavy favorites to reach the postseason include the undefeated San Francisco 49ers. A few clubs that entered the season with high hopes, like the Cincinnati Bengals, have seen their odds take a hit after challenging starts.
Betting odds will continue to shift as the campaign moves along. On this page, we break down the current NFL playoff odds and consider what the seeds and matchups would look like if the playoffs started today, using the latest odds as a guide.
AFC playoff odds in Week 5
The table below has the latest playoff odds for all 16 AFC teams from Caesars Sportsbook, along with the lines for their Week 5 games from various NFL betting sites.
Team | Playoff Odds | Implied Probability* | This Week |
Kansas City Chiefs | -1000 | 86.34% | at Vikings |
Miami Dolphins | -650 | 82.31% | vs. Giants |
Buffalo Bills | -600 | 81.41% | vs. Jaguars |
Baltimore Ravens | -380 | 75.19% | at Steelers |
Cleveland Browns | -160 | 58.45% | Bye week |
Jacksonville Jaguars | -110 | 49.75% | vs. Bills |
Los Angeles Chargers | +100 | 47.49% | Bye week |
Tennessee Titans | +125 | 42.21% | at Colts |
Cincinnati Bengals | +200 | 31.66% | at Cardinals |
Houston Texans | +200 | 31.66% | at Falcons |
Pittsburgh Steelers | +210 | 30.64% | vs. Ravens |
Indianapolis Colts | +250 | 27.14% | vs. Titans |
New England Patriots | +400 | 18.99% | vs. Saints |
Las Vegas Raiders | +600 | 13.57% | vs. Packers |
Denver Broncos | +650 | 12.66% | vs. Jets |
New York Jets | +800 | 10.55% | at Broncos |
*Our implied probability calculation uses the sportsbook’s odds minus the vigorish charged by that sportsbook. An average online gambling calculator will provide you with the implied probability based on just the betting odds. By going a step further and accounting for the vig, we find a true implied probability in relation to the sportsbook’s odds.
At the top of the list, the Chiefs have moved back ahead of the Dolphins as the top AFC favorite. In spite of losing to the Bills last week, Miami has a slight edge in current odds to make the playoffs. Here’s how the AFC seeds would line up based on the current betting odds:
- Bye: Kansas City Chiefs
- (2) Miami Dolphins vs. (7) Los Angeles Chargers
- (3) Baltimore Ravens vs. (6) Cleveland Browns
- (4) Jacksonville Jaguars vs. (5) Buffalo Bills
The Ravens are the current favorites in the AFC North race following a convincing win over the Browns. The Jaguars rebounded from a 1-2 start with a double-digit win over the Falcons in London. Jacksonville remains across the pond this week to take on the Bills. The Browns and Chargers both have bye weeks.
Further down the list, the Broncos and Jets entered the season with optimism, but their odds have tumbled. The two 1-3 teams square off in Denver this week. Not much was expected out of the Texans heading into the campaign. The team has flipped the script and climbed the board following convincing wins over the Jaguars and Steelers.
There are two notable matchups to keep an eye on this week. The Ravens travel to take on the Steelers in a divisional showdown, and the Titans are at the Colts for an AFC South battle. The winners of the two matchups could see a further spike in interest, while the losers may also see an impact on their betting odds.
NFC playoff odds in Week 5
Here are the playoff odds for all 16 NFC teams from Caesars Sportsbook, along with their implied playoff probability and the lines for their Week 5 games.
Team | Playoff Odds | Implied Probability* | This Week |
San Francisco 49ers | -4000 | 92.26% | vs. Cowboys |
Philadelphia Eagles | -1600 | 89.01% | at Rams |
Dallas Cowboys | -550 | 80.02% | vs. 49ers |
Detroit Lions | -440 | 77.06% | vs. Panthers |
Seattle Seahawks | -140 | 55.17% | Bye week |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -130 | 53.45% | Bye week |
New Orleans Saints | -125 | 52.54% | vs. Patriots |
Atlanta Falcons | -120 | 51.58% | vs. Texans |
Green Bay Packers | +115 | 43.99% | at Raiders |
Los Angeles Rams | +240 | 27.81% | vs. Eagles |
Minnesota Vikings | +240 | 27.81% | vs. Chiefs |
Washington Commanders | +280 | 24.89% | vs. Bears |
New York Giants | +850 | 9.95% | vs. Dolphins |
Carolina Panthers | +1800 | 4.98% | vs. Lions |
Arizona Cardinals | +1800 | 4.98% | vs. Bengals |
Chicago Bears | +2000 | 4.50% | vs. Commanders |
*Our implied probability calculation uses the sportsbook’s odds minus the vigorish charged by that sportsbook. An average online gambling calculator will provide you with the implied probability based on just the betting odds. By going a step further and accounting for the vig, we find a true implied probability in relation to the sportsbook’s odds.
According to the current odds, there’s a clear hierarchy in the NFC. The undefeated 49ers and Eagles have separated themselves from the pack, with the Cowboys and Lions also in good shape. Here’s what the NFC matchups would be if we used the latest betting lines:
- Bye: San Francisco 49ers
- (2) Philadelphia Eagles vs. (7) New Orleans Saints
- (3) Detroit Lions vs. (6) Seattle Seahawks
- (4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. (5) Dallas Cowboys
The Buccaneers have taken the lead in the NFC South race following a convincing road win over the Saints. Tampa Bay gets this week off, while New Orleans will try to bounce back on the road against the Patriots. The Seahawks picked up a dominant road win over the Giants on Monday night, and Seattle’s odds rose following the impressive primetime performance.
Behind the top seven, the Packers and Falcons are 2-2 and will look to make headway this week against the Raiders and Texans, respectively. At the back of the pack, the Panthers and Bears are still seeking their first win, while New York has disappointed with a 1-3 start after reaching the playoffs a season ago.
Matchups that could shake up the board this week include the Eagles traveling to take on the Rams and the Cowboys at the 49ers. If the two undefeated teams pull out victories, they’ll likely remain at the head of the table. However, if either goes down in an upset, there’s a solid chance that the landscape will shift.
Projected Super Bowl 58 matchups for Week 5
Betting odds on the winner of Super Bowl 58 also continue to adjust with each passing week of the regular season. The 49ers and Chiefs continue to battle for the top spot on the board, and there is plenty of jockeying for position behind them. As of right now, just five teams have odds to win the Super Bowl of +1000 or less at most legal online sportsbooks.
- Odds to win Super Bowl 58:
- San Francisco 49ers
- Kansas City Chiefs
- Buffalo Bills
- Philadelphia Eagles
- Dallas Cowboys
Based on the latest odds, potential matchups for Super Bowl 58 include the following:
- 49ers vs. Chiefs
- 49ers vs. Bills
- Chiefs vs. Eagles
- Chiefs vs. Cowboys
- Bills vs. Eagles
- Bills vs. Cowboys
For this week, the Chiefs, Bills, and Eagles are relatively sizable favorites to win their respective matchups. The game that could have the biggest impact on the board takes place on Sunday Night Football as the Cowboys travel to take on the 49ers. A win for San Francisco would likely keep the 49ers in the top two, while a Dallas upset could change the picture.