The NFL playoff picture continues to come into focus as we get set for Week 10 of the regular season. The Kansas City Chiefs are still atop the charts in the AFC as they head to a bye week with a record of 7-2. The Philadelphia Eagles are first in NFC odds and have the league’s best record at 8-1.
There are several strong contenders to reach the postseason, and we could end up seeing some competitive races for the final seeds. Each week, we review the current NFL playoff odds and look at what the seeds and matchups would look like if the playoffs started today, based on the latest lines.
AFC playoff odds in Week 10
|Team||Playoff Odds||Implied Probability*||This Week|
|Kansas City Chiefs||–10000||90.27%||Bye week|
|Baltimore Ravens||–2000||86.83%||vs. Browns|
|Jacksonville Jaguars||–1400||85.10%||vs. 49ers|
|Miami Dolphins||–1000||82.89%||Bye week|
|Cincinnati Bengals||–300||68.38%||vs. Texans|
|Cleveland Browns||–175||58.02%||at Ravens|
|Buffalo Bills||–125||50.65%||vs. Broncos|
|Pittsburgh Steelers||+120||41.44%||vs. Packers|
|Los Angeles Chargers||+135||38.80%||vs. Lions|
|New York Jets||+240||26.82%||at Raiders|
|Houston Texans||+250||26.05%||at Jets|
|Indianapolis Colts||+350||20.26%||vs. Patriots|
|Tennessee Titans||+800||10.13%||at Buccaneers|
|Las Vegas Raiders||+1300||6.51%||vs. Jets|
|Denver Broncos||+2000||4.34%||at Bills|
|New England Patriots||+2500||3.51%||vs. Colts|
Our implied probability calculation uses the sportsbook’s odds minus the vigorish charged by that sportsbook. An average online gambling calculator will provide you with the implied probability based on just the betting odds. By going a step further and accounting for the vig, we find a true implied probability in relation to the sportsbook’s odds.
The Chiefs head to a bye week with a record of 7-2 following a win over the Dolphins, who dropped to 6-3 with the loss but remain atop the AFC East. The Ravens lead the AFC North and have won four straight, while the AFC South-leading Jaguars return from a break on a five-game winning streak.
- Bye: (1) Kansas City Chiefs
- (2) Baltimore Ravens vs. (7) Buffalo Bills
- (3) Jacksonville Jaguars vs. (6) Cleveland Browns
- (4) Miami Dolphins vs. (5) Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals have surged up the board on the heels of a four-game winning streak. Meanwhile, the Browns further strengthened their position with a shutout victory over the Cardinals. The Bills entered the season as one of the top AFC favorites to reach the postseason. Now 5-4, they are seventh in the latest odds.
The Steelers and Chargers are next up should any of the above start to falter in the coming weeks. The Jets and Texans are both 4-4, but the stories have taken a different turn. The offensive woes continue in New York, while things are turning out much better than expected in Houston, with C.J. Stroud favored to win Offensive Rookie of the Year.
There are a few AFC vs. AFC games this week that could shake up the landscape: Browns at Ravens, Texans at Bengals, and Broncos at Bills. The home teams are favored to win all three, and their odds could remain stable or even improve with victories, while upsets could lead to the victors rising further up the board.
NFC playoff odds in Week 10
Here are the playoff odds for all 16 NFC teams from Caesars Sportsbook, along with their implied playoff probability and the lines for their Week 10 games.
|Team||Playoff Odds||Implied Probability*||This Week|
|Philadelphia Eagles||-25000||95.26%||Bye week|
|Detroit Lions||-10000||94.70%||at Chargers|
|San Francisco 49ers||-4000||93.31%||at Jaguars|
|Dallas Cowboys||-2000||91.09%||vs. Giants|
|Seattle Seahawks||-350||74.39%||vs. Commanders|
|New Orleans Saints||-325||73.14%||at Vikings|
|Atlanta Falcons||+110||45.54%||at Cardinals|
|Minnesota Vikings||+120||43.47%||vs. Saints|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||+260||26.57%||vs. Titans|
|Green Bay Packers||+260||26.57%||at Steelers|
|Los Angeles Rams||+800||10.63%||Bye week|
|Washington Commanders||+800||10.63%||vs. Seahawks|
|Chicago Bears||+2500||3.68%||vs. Panthers|
|New York Giants||+2500||3.68%||at Cowboys|
|Carolina Panthers||+2500||3.68%||at Bears|
|Arizona Cardinals||+2500||3.68%||vs. Falcons|
*Our implied probability calculation uses the sportsbook’s odds minus the vigorish charged by that sportsbook. An average online gambling calculator will provide you with the implied probability based on just the betting odds. By going a step further and accounting for the vig, we find a true implied probability in relation to the sportsbook’s odds.
The Eagles boast the NFL’s best record at 8-1. They defeated the Cowboys last week to further pad their lead in the NFC East. Dallas continues to hold a substantial advantage in the odds to nab the top wild card spot in the conference. The 49ers and Lions return from byes this week with big road tests on tap.
- Bye: (1) Philadelphia Eagles
- (2) Detroit Lions vs. (7) Atlanta Falcons
- (3) San Francisco 49ers vs. (6) Seattle Seahawks
- (4) New Orleans Saints vs. (5) Dallas Cowboys
The Saints are 5-4 and have the lead in the NFC South to themselves over the 4-5 Falcons, who are pegged for the seventh spot based on the latest playoff lines. The Seahawks suffered a convincing road defeat at the hands of the Ravens last time out but remain in good shape to make it to the postseason as far as the odds are concerned.
There’s a clear separation in the odds between the top six teams and the rest. However, an interesting battle could be brewing for the final seed in the conference. Atlanta holds the lead over the Vikings for now. Minnesota has won four straight to get to 5-4, pulling out a thrilling head-to-head win over the Falcons last time out.
The biggest conference battle to look forward to this week is the Saints at the Vikings. New Orleans has won two in a row as it looks to build a bigger lead in the division chase. Meanwhile, the Vikings will be trying to keep their hot streak alive and make an even stronger case as an NFC wild card contender to watch.
Projected Super Bowl 58 matchups for Week 10
Betting odds on the winner of Super Bowl 58 continue to shift as we get set for another week of regular season action. At most legal online sportsbooks, just four teams have odds of +1000 or less to win the big game.
- Odds to win Super Bowl 58:
- Kansas City Chiefs
- Philadelphia Eagles
- San Francisco 49ers
- Baltimore Ravens
Based on the latest odds, potential matchups for Super Bowl 58 include the following:
- Chiefs vs. Eagles
- Chiefs vs. 49ers
- Eagles vs. Ravens
- 49ers vs. Ravens
The Chiefs and Eagles have this week off. The two teams will square off next week in a highly anticipated Super Bowl rematch. The 49ers return from a bye looking to snap a three-game skid with a tough test at the Jaguars. The Ravens are home against the rival Browns. Baltimore convincingly won the first meeting of the two teams in Cleveland in Week 4.