It’s time for another busy Saturday of college football action.
The college football Week 5 schedule is packed with games, including a mix of ranked teams, rivalry games, and several contests with heavy favorites.
It’s incredibly challenging to try to pick out the upsets in such a massive slate. Public betting trends, odds movement, and current lines can provide some clues.
BetMGM data on Week 5 underdogs
According to BetMGM Sportsbook, one of the marquee matchups of the young season has been incredibly popular among bettors.
“Georgia-Alabama will be the most bet game so far this season,” said Seamus Magee, a trading manager at BetMGM. “Bettors are jumping on ’Bama being a home underdog for the first time since 2007. Georgia winning would make our Saturday.”
Elsewhere on the schedule, several point spread and moneyline underdogs are also attracting interest at the online sportsbook. There’s also a handful of games that appear close to toss-ups.
Popular underdogs on the spread
Colorado (+14) at UCF
The Buffaloes moved to 3-1 with a 38-31 overtime victory over Baylor last week. They’re heavy underdogs this time out for a trip to face UCF. The Knights are 3-0 and had last week off following a 35–34 victory over TCU.
UCF boasts a high-powered offense that is averaging 570.7 yards and 45.7 points per game. Meanwhile, Shedeur Sanders is fourth in the nation with 1,340 passing yards and has accounted for 12 total touchdowns.
For the season to date, Colorado is 2-2 against the spread, while the Knights check in at 3-0. The total line for this one is 61.5 points, so we could be in store for some fireworks.
Illinois (+17.5) at Penn State
Illinois is a perfect 4-0 on the season and ranked 19th in the latest AP Top 25 poll. As the spread indicates, the Illini have a stiff test on tap when they visit No. 9 Penn State (3-0).
The Fighting Illini picked up a 31-24 upset at Nebraska last week as +9.5 dogs. Penn State easily handled Kent State 56-0 but received a scare in its previous game before escaping with a 34-27 victory over Bowling Green.
Illinois is 3-0-1 ATS on the season, and Penn State is 2-1. The Nittany Lions have won four of their last five meetings with Illinois and took last season’s matchup by a score of 30-13.
Popular moneyline underdog bets
Kentucky (+525) at Ole Miss
The Wildcats are 2-2 following a 41-6 win over Ohio that snapped a two-game skid. They’re hefty underdogs for a trip to take on No. 6 Ole Miss (4-0).
Rebels QB Jaxson Dart holds down the second spot in the latest Heisman Trophy odds. He’s first in the nation with 1,554 passing yards and has accounted for 15 total TDs.
Back in Week 3, Kentucky pushed Georgia, one of the top favorites in College Football Playoff odds, to the limit in a 13-12 loss. Ole Miss has won the last three meetings between these programs, including a 22-19 victory last season.
Washington State (+200) at Boise State
Washington State is 4-0 following a 54-52 double-overtime win over San Jose State. The Cougars will be on the road this week to take on Boise State, the favorite to win the Mountain West in the latest college football conference odds.
The Broncos are 2-1, with the blemish coming in a 37-34 defeat to Oregon back in Week 2. Last time out, they defeated visiting Portland State 56-7.
The Cougars lead the all-time series 5-1. The last meeting of the two programs took place in 2017, a 47-44 overtime win for Washington State.
Potential upsets based on the odds
Oklahoma (-2.5) at Auburn
The Sooners dropped a 25-15 decision to visiting Tennessee last week to fall to 3-1. Oklahoma has made a switch at QB, replacing Jackson Arnold with Michael Hawkins Jr.
Hawkins Jr. came on in relief last week, throwing for 142 yards and a score. The Tigers enter at 2-2, falling 24-14 to Arkansas last week. It could be Payton Thorne or Hank Brown under center for Auburn.
This is Oklahoma’s first season in the SEC, so there’s not much history between the two programs. The Sooners hold a 2-0 advantage, taking the last one 35-19 in 2017.
Georgia (-1.5) at Alabama
One of the season’s most highly anticipated matchups will take place Saturday night at Bryant-Denny Stadium. No. 2 Georgia is on the road to face No. 4 Alabama in a game that could have serious ramifications for the playoff picture.
Both clubs had last week off and are 3-0 on the season. Alabama’s Jalen Milroe is a top Heisman contender, with 14 total TDs to date. Georgia’s Carson Beck is the favorite to be the top pick at the next NFL Draft.
The Crimson Tide have won eight of their last nine over the Bulldogs. In last season’s SEC title game, Alabama came out on top, 27-24.
Were there any big college football upsets last week?
North Carolina was a -11.5 favorite for last Saturday’s visit from James Madison, a game that had an over/under line of 48.5 points. Both numbers would prove to be way off the mark.
The visiting Dukes stormed out to a stunning 53-21 lead at the half. The Tar Heels played catchup from there but couldn’t close the gap, going down to defeat in a wild 70-50 shootout.
On the spread, Missouri was a hefty 18.5-point favorite as it hosted Vanderbilt. The Tigers needed double overtime to escape with a 30-27 victory, giving the Commodores the cover by a comfortable margin.
