College football’s offseason of monumental change is drawing to a close.
A host of teams have switched conferences in the latest round of realignment. Headline movers include Texas and Oklahoma shifting to the SEC and the Big Ten welcoming four former Pac-12 programs.
As college football betting sites get set for the start of the regular season on Saturday, there are a number of betting storylines to follow for the upcoming campaign.
Texas & Oklahoma join the SEC
In July 2021, Texas and Oklahoma shook up the college football landscape in a big way. The two flagship Big 12 programs accepted invitations to join the SEC. It was a lengthy breakup as the move just became official on July 1.
The Longhorns exit the conference as the reigning Big 12 champs. The club closed last season with a record of 12-2, advancing to the College Football Playoff semifinals before falling to Washington. In current College Football Playoff odds, the club is the fourth favorite to win it all at +850.
The Sooners went 10-3 last season, closing with a loss to Arizona at the Valero Alamo Bowl. They got the better of Texas in their annual rivalry game by a score of 34-30 but finished third in the conference. They leave with 14 Big 12 titles, the most in the conference’s history.
Both clubs head into the new season as ranked teams. The Longhorns are fourth in the preseason AP Top 25 poll, and the Sooners are at No. 16. In college football conference odds, Texas is the second favorite to win the SEC at +350, while Oklahoma is ninth at +5000.
The Longhorns’ college football win total line is 10.5, with the Sooners at 7.5. The annual Red River Rivalry game will continue this season as the teams will square off at the Cotton Bowl on Oct. 12. Early betting lines have Texas at -7.5 on the spread.
Big Ten expands to 18 teams
The Big Ten has expanded to 18 teams with the additions of Oregon, UCLA, USC, and Washington. The first dominoes fell in 2022, with the two California schools announcing their intentions. The Pacific Northwest squads accepted Big Ten invites the following year.
Just two of the four teams cracked the preseason top 25, with the Ducks ranking third and the Trojans at No. 23. Oregon is third in preseason national title odds at +700, behind Georgia (+300) and Ohio State (+400) and ahead of Texas (+850).
The Buckeyes are the preseason favorites to win the Big Ten at +150, followed by the Ducks (+210), Penn State (+500), Michigan (+850), and USC (+2200). The Wolverines are the defending Big Ten champs and defeated Washington 34-13 to win the national title.
While the conference is expanding, it will no longer have divisions. Previously, the winners of the East and West divisions squared off in the conference championship game. The title tilt will now be a matchup of the two clubs atop the overall standings.
The expansion of the Big Ten also coincides with the first season of an expanded CFP format from four to 12 teams. Just five conference champions are guaranteed entry, with the remaining spots going to the seven highest-ranked teams.
College Football conference over/under odds are available on how many teams will qualify from each conference to the playoff. The line for the Big Ten is 3.5, setting the stage for even more at stake in annual rivalry games such as Ohio State vs. Michigan.
Are the conference shifts impacting betting interest?
Earlier this week, John Ewing from BetMGM Sportsbook provided LSR with betting insights on the college football conference movement. New faces in new places are attracting betting interest, but not necessarily due to their conference shifts:
“Texas and Oregon are two teams that have seen strong interest from bettors to win their new conferences,” he said. “This is not driven by changing conferences as much as expectations for both teams to be good this season.”
The change of conference has had little impact on the overall perception of the Longhorns and Ducks as far as the sportsbook is concerned:
“Using win totals for example, we don’t see a big impact from switching conferences for good teams like Oregon and Texas. Oregon’s win total last year was 9.5; this year it is 10.5. Texas’ win total also moved from 9.5 to 10.5 this year. Each season will be different, but given the current rosters, expectations are high for these teams in new conferences,” Ewing said.
As for what to look forward to with the weekly games, Ewing said the two powerhouse conferences tend to attract the most betting interest, along with other marquee matchups:
“The SEC and Big Ten matchups typically are the most bet. This is driven by matchups of top 25 teams. Ranked teams outside of these conferences also see increased action compared to unranked teams.”
Pac-12 is now a shell of its former self
College football realignment has not been kind to the Pac-12. In addition to the four teams that left for the Big Ten, four (Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and Utah) are off to the Big 12, and two (Cal and Stanford) are joining the ACC.
Washington State and Oregon State are the only two programs that remain in the storied conference. For this season, the schools have entered into a scheduling agreement with the Mountain West, but they will not be eligible for the conference championship game.
Looking back to last season, Oregon State went 8-5 overall and 5-4 in conference play. Washington State was 5-7 and 2-7 in Pac-12 play. In preseason win total lines, the Beavers and Huskies are both at 7.5.
Realignment moves in other conferences
The ACC now has 17 teams. In addition to the two Pac-12 schools, SMU has joined after leaving the AAC. Florida State is the conference favorite at odds of +300, followed by Clemson at +370. The AAC remains at 14 clubs, replacing SMU with Army.
Memphis (+225) and Tulane (+350) are the favorites to win the AAC. The arrival of four Pac-12 schools bumps membership in the Big 12 up to 16 teams. Utah, one of the new arrivals, is favored to win at +300, followed by Kansas State at +440.
Liberty (-210) is a heavy favorite to win Conference USA, which has expanded to 10 teams with the addition of Kennesaw State. The Mid-American (12), Mountain West (12), and Sun Belt (14) remain the same size with no additions or subtractions.
Preseason odds for the MAC have Miami (Ohio) (+240) favored and Toledo (+330) in second. Boise State (-130) tops the chart in odds to win the Mountain West, and Appalachian State (+275) is the favorite to take the Sun Belt.
