College Football Playoff Picture: Bracket Projection Heading Into Week 5


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College Football Playoff Picture: Bracket Projection Heading Into Week 5

The college football playoff picture continues to come into focus following the first month of regular season action. 

College Football Playoff odds have continued to adjust in response to the weekly results and team performances. A number of the preseason favorites to win it all remain in solid shape as far as the lines are concerned. 

Others haven’t lived up to expectations and find themselves among a group of CFP bubble teams. With college football Week 5 games on the horizon, here’s a detailed look at where things stand.  

Latest College Football Playoff odds

CFP bracket projection

The five highest-ranked conference champions will receive automatic berths in the expanded CFP format. The remaining slots will go to the next seven highest-ranked clubs. Here’s how the seeds would currently look based on the latest college football odds.

Ohio State has moved into the top spot in our projected bracket. The Buckeyes have the shortest odds to reach the CFP and have also taken over as the betting favorite to win the national championship. 

Texas, the top-ranked team in the latest AP Top 25 poll, gets the nod over Georgia for the second spot. Miami and Utah are favored to win the ACC and Big 12, respectively, in college football conference odds

The next seven seeds are dominated by two conferences. SEC programs (Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee, Ole Miss, and Missouri) currently control five of the slots, with Big Ten squads (Oregon and Penn State) claiming the other two. 

Boise State remains the favorite to win the Mountain West Conference and continues to hold the lead over Conference USA favorite Liberty in the chase to be the highest-ranked Group of Five program. 

Potential CFP first-round matchups 

The winners of the Power Four conferences — the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, and SEC — are expected to receive the first-round byes. The next eight seeds will square off in first-round action. If the seeding and current odds align, the opening matchups would look like this:

Last week, Texas was projected to have a round one matchup with Boise State. The Longhorns now move into a projected bye as the top-ranked team in the nation. 

They’ve swapped positions with the Bulldogs, who rank second in the latest poll. The other major change from our previous edition of the playoff picture is Missouri taking over the 11th spot from USC

The odds and projected seeds serve as a potential guide to what the College Football Playoff landscape will ultimately look like. However, the CFP selection committee rankings still hold the final say, with the first edition due on Nov. 5. 

Over at BetMGM Sportsbook, Ohio State (17.9%), Georgia (16.1%), and Miami (10.7%) have attracted the most betting handle for national championship futures wagers. Hurricanes QB Cameron Ward is the favorite in Heisman Trophy odds

College Football Playoff bubble teams

For this week’s bubble watch, USC (+210) is the first team on the outside looking in at the projected bracket. The Trojans dropped to 2-1 with a 27-24 road loss to Michigan on Saturday. 

Missouri (+120) moves back into the 11th seed, a week after USC supplanted it in the projections. The Tigers escaped with a 30-27 double overtime win over visiting Vanderbilt last week to move to 4-0. 

Next up on the board are Clemson (+210) and Notre Dame (+250). The Tigers are 2-1 after a convincing win over NC State, while the Fighting Irish are 3-1 following a victory over Miami-Ohio. 

Boise State (+300) holds the edge over Liberty (+400) in the Group of Five race. Louisville (+350) and LSU (+350) are in between those two schools, while defending national champion Michigan (+600) is in a tie for 23rd in the latest lines. 

Upcoming matchups that could impact the CFP race

There are four ranked vs. ranked matchups on tap for this week, the results of which could have a bearing on the CFP race. 

Oklahoma State and Kansas State remain well behind Utah in odds to win the Big 12. The winner of this one could build its case to move up if Utah happens to stumble as a -12.5 home favorite versus Arizona. 

Louisville and Notre Dame are among the current bubble teams in the CFP chase. The stage is set for the winner to see at least some kind of spike in betting lines. 

Georgia will visit Alabama for an SEC battle, a matchup that could have a huge impact on the top of the CFP board. Illinois has opened at 4-0 and has been climbing the ranks in advance of a stiff test at Penn State, which is 3-0.   

Photo by Associated Press