After the first three weeks of college football action, the playoff picture continues to come into focus.
The College Football Playoff odds have adjusted in response to results and team performance. While several of the preseason favorites remain firmly in the mix as far as the lines are concerned, others haven’t been as fortunate.
The jockeying for position will continue with the college football Week 4 schedule, while the list of bubble teams will remain subject to change.
Latest College Football Playoff odds
CFP bracket projection
The five highest-ranked conference champions receive guaranteed spots in the expanded CFP format, followed by the next seven highest-ranked clubs. Here’s how the seeds currently would shake out based on the latest college football odds.
- 1 – Georgia Bulldogs
- 2 – Ohio State Buckeyes
- 3 – Miami Hurricanes
- 4 – Utah Utes
- 5 – Texas Longhorns
- 6 – Oregon Ducks
- 7 – Alabama Crimson Tide
- 8 – Penn State Nittany Lions
- 9 – Ole Miss Rebels
- 10 – Tennessee Volunteers
- 11 – USC Trojans
- 12 – Boise State Broncos
Georgia and Ohio State are tied for the top spot in CFP odds. The Bulldogs get the nod for the first seed as they’re ranked second in the latest AP Top 25 poll, while the Buckeyes are third.
Miami is favored to win the ACC in college football conference odds, while Utah is the favorite to win the Big 12. The Hurricanes are eighth in odds to reach the CFP, while the Utes are 13th.
Texas is the new No. 1 in the AP poll and the projected fifth seed per the latest odds. Quinn Ewers had to exit the Longhorns’ win over UTSA early due to injury, with Arch Manning coming on in relief.
For the next six spots, it’s an even mix of SEC and Big Ten programs. Boise State, the favorite to win the Mountain West and highest listed Group of Five team in the odds, would snag the final seed in this scenario.
Interestingly, the top 10 names in Heisman Trophy odds are quarterbacks for CFP contenders. Cameron Ward is the current favorite, followed by Jaxson Dart and Jalen Milroe.
Potential CFP first-round matchups
The winners of the Power Four conferences — the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, and SEC — will receive first-round byes. If the seeding and current odds align, the opening matchups would look like this:
- (12) Boise State vs. (5) Texas
- (11) USC vs. (6) Oregon
- (10) Tennessee vs. (7) Alabama
- (9) Ole Miss vs. (8) Penn State
As things currently stand, the first round could be a showcase for the Big Ten and SEC. The two power conferences account for seven of the projected eight teams, with Boise State as the lone outlier.
While the odds and potential seeds can serve as a guide to the possible College Football Playoff landscape, the CFP selection committee rankings still will be the ultimate authority. The first of the committee’s rankings is due to come out on Nov. 5.
At BetMGM Sportsbook, Ohio State (19.3%), Georgia (17.2%), and Miami (11.5%) have attracted the largest shares of betting handle on national championship futures.
College Football Playoff bubble teams
For this week’s bubble watch, USC (+150) has moved into the 11th seed. It’s replaced Missouri (+160) in that slot.
The Tigers are now the first team on the outside looking in at the bracket. Next up are Clemson (+210), Kansas State (+270), LSU (+300), and Notre Dame (+350).
While Clemson is tied with Utah (+210) in odds, the Utes get the nod as the highest-ranked Big 12 program. The bubble teams are also ahead of or tied with Boise State (+350) in odds to reach the CFP.
However, one spot goes to the highest-ranked Group of Five champion. The Broncos hold that distinction for now, ahead of Conference USA favorite Liberty (+400).
Upcoming matchups that could impact the CFP race
Week 4 features a handful of ranked vs. ranked matchups that could impact the race. Interestingly, the three road teams are favorites on the point spread.
- USC (-5.5) at Michigan
- Utah (-1.5) at Oklahoma State
- Tennessee (-7) at Oklahoma
No. 11 USC is the favorite versus No. 18 Michigan, the defending national champion. The Trojans are off to a 3-0 start, while the Wolverines are 2-1. Michigan is down to 26th in CFP odds. A victory here could lead to a rise back up the board, while USC can further cement its standing with a win.
In odds to win the Big 12, Utah is the favorite, ahead of Kansas State and Oklahoma State. The Utes and Cowboys both are 3-0 on the season. As the tight spread indicates, the game is close to being considered a toss-up. Utah likely holds onto its conference favorite status with a win, while Oklahoma State could supplant it with a victory.
Finally, an SEC showdown will see No. 6 Tennessee facing No. 15 Oklahoma. The current over/under sits at 57.5 points, setting the stage for a potential shootout between the Volunteers and Sooners. Tennessee likely will remain among the top 10 contenders if it pulls out a win. An upset win for Oklahoma could move it up the charts.
