NFL win totals serve as a benchmark of team expectations for the coming season. The Buffalo Bills and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the two current favorites in Super Bowl futures betting, have the biggest win totals on the board at 11.5, while the Houston Texans are last at 4.5. Here are the latest NFL win total odds for the 2022-2023 season.
2022-2023 NFL win total tracker for all 32 teams
Last updated: August 11
|Team||Win Total||Over Odds||Under Odds||Last Season||Difference|
Largest NFL win totals
Ten teams have double-digit win lines for the upcoming season, and just five are at 10.5 or more:
- Buffalo Bills 11.5 (-140/+120): The Bills finished last season at 11-6 and advanced to the divisional round of the playoffs. The line for total wins is even higher for the upcoming season. Based on the talent level on both sides of the ball, it’s tough to argue against that happening.
- Green Bay Packers 11 (-110/-110): After a 13-4 regular season that led to the top seed in the NFC, the Packers were one and done in the postseason. Aaron Rodgers returns to lead the way for a club that’s once again likely to be among the best in the conference.
- Kansas City Chiefs 10.5 (-115/-105): Following a 12-5 season and another appearance in the AFC title game, the Chiefs project to be among the league’s best yet again. However, the AFC West as a whole could be much better this season, so double-digit wins may be tougher to come by.
- Los Angeles Rams 10.5 (+105/-125): The defending Super Bowl champions closed out last season at 12-5. The bar at DraftKings is at 10.5, so oddsmakers may be factoring in the potential for a championship hangover. Barring something dramatic, the Rams are poised to at least have a shot at defending the crown.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 11.5 (+100/-120): Following a 13-4 season and a loss in the divisional round, the Buccaneers appeared headed toward taking a step back as Tom Brady called it quits. Then he changed his mind. Tampa Bay is the second favorite in Super Bowl odds and looks destined for 10+ wins.
Lowest NFL win totals
At the other end of the spectrum, eight teams have lines of 6.5 wins or fewer, half of which are at 5.5 wins or under. Here are the four squads that are looking as though they’ll be battling for lofty picks at the next NFL draft.
- Atlanta Falcons 5 (+125/-145): Team management may claim otherwise, but the Falcons’ decision to move on from the Matt Ryan era signals a transition year and a step backward. The club was 7-10 last season, but Atlanta may have its work cut out just to clear the five-win benchmark.
- Houston Texans 4.5 (+100/-120): The Texans were one of the worst teams in the league last season. This year projects to be more of the same as Houston has the lowest win total line on the board. New head coach Lovie Smith will have to work some magic to exceed last year’s 4-13 mark.
- New York Jets 5.5 (-175/+145): While the Jets have one of the lower listed win totals, five or more wins would be an improvement over last year’s 4-13 record. Robert Saleh and Zach Wilson are getting set for year two, and the team appears to have plugged some holes in the offseason, so progress could finally be on the way.
- Seattle Seahawks 5.5 (-140/+120): When you trade away a franchise QB without a clear plan in place, the outlook drops. That’s the situation at hand for a Seattle team that went 7-10 last year and offloaded Russell Wilson to the Broncos. It’s a new era for the Seahawks, and it could get off to a rough start.
Teams on the rise
The NFL regular season is relatively short at 17 games, so a possible difference of two or more wins is significant. There are four clubs that have a shot at improving their win total significantly this season, at least as far as the oddsmakers are concerned:
- Denver Broncos +3: The addition of Wilson instantly vaults the Broncos into contention in the AFC after last year’s club went 7-10. There were already some solid pieces in place in Denver. Adding a QB of Wilson’s caliber could be the move to take the team to the next level.
- Detroit Lions +3.5: While last year was a challenging one for the Lions at 3-13-1, head coach Dan Campbell appears to be a good fit. The record may not reflect it, but Detroit showed some fight last season.
- Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5: Last season was a disaster for the Jaguars. Head coach Urban Meyer’s time at the helm ended after just 13 games, and first overall draft pick Trevor Lawrence didn’t show all that much for a team that finished at 3-14. The upgrade to Doug Pederson as head coach could make a difference, but don’t expect miracles.
- New York Giants +3: The Giants also have a new regime in charge. Joe Schoen takes over as the general manager, while Brian Daboll will lead the way on the sidelines. There’s talent in New York, and the club received high marks in the NFL draft. A leap forward from 4-13 seems doable.
Teams projected to decline
The arrow is also pointing down for several teams. Five clubs have lines that suggest the possibility of two or more losses than a season ago. Interestingly, four of them advanced to the NFL playoffs last season.
- Arizona Cardinals -2.5: Through Week 13 of last season, the Cardinals were 10-2 and looking like a legitimate contender. The club struggled the rest of the way, finishing up at 11-6 before a quick elimination in the playoffs. Oddsmakers are tempering expectations, but the talent is there to outpunch the team’s weight class.
- Atlanta Falcons -2: The shift from Ryan to free agent Marcus Mariota — with rookie Desmond Ridder waiting in the wings — isn’t inspiring a ton of confidence. The talent level at the skill positions isn’t, either. The Falcons could have a hard time putting points on the board this season, and fewer wins could be the result.
- Dallas Cowboys -2: The Cowboys had a solid 12-5 regular season, but they flamed out early in the playoffs yet again. The NFC East could be more competitive this season, so clearing the 10-win bar might not be quite as easy. However, Dallas remains one of the contenders on the NFC side of the bracket.
- Green Bay Packers -2: The highest win total on the board is 11.5 for the Bills and Buccaneers. While last year’s 13-4 team is now pegged for 11 victories, that still leaves it among the league’s elite. As for concerns, the current wide receiving corps is a potential red flag, but Aaron Rodgers should still be able to work his magic.
- Pittsburgh Steelers -2: The Steelers managed to sneak into the playoffs last season, but they were one and done at the hands of the Chiefs. There will be a changing of the guard at QB in the wake of Ben Roethlisberger’s retirement. Oddsmakers are expecting a step back as a result.
- Tennessee Titans -3: The Titans were the top seed in the AFC last season at 12-5, but the playoff run lasted a single game. The team then traded top wideout AJ Brown for picks and may have created a QB controversy by drafting Malik Willis. A step or two backward would be less than stunning.
NFL win total odds of note
Just like any other type of bet, NFL win total odds can shift in response to betting action. While several teams are still hovering around the standard split of -110 on both sides, others have seen much more notable movement in the odds. Here’s how the numbers translate for those squads:
- Atlanta Falcons 5 (+125/-145): The current odds suggest that more action has come in on the team to win fewer than five games. If you think the Falcons can exceed expectations, you’ll get positive odds for taking the risk.
- Baltimore Ravens 9.5 (-160/+130): Bettors appear to be expecting a much better result for a Ravens team that struggled down the stretch last season. If Baltimore can keep the injury bug at bay this time around, 10+ wins seems like a reasonable ask.
- Buffalo Bills 11.5 (-140/+120): The current Super Bowl favorites have been receiving plenty of attention this offseason and for good reason. The Bills appear to be stacked and could be in line for a memorable season.
- New York Jets 5.5 (-175/+145): While the Jets haven’t generated much enthusiasm over the past decade, bettors have been biting on the team to go over 5.5 wins. Could improvement finally be on the way to the Big Apple?
- Seattle Seahawks 5.5 (-140/+120): The trade of Russell Wilson changes the outlook for the Seahawks tremendously. To date, bettors appear to be buying Seattle to at least slightly exceed its win total expectation.
- Chicago Bears 6.5 (+150/-190): Matt Eberflus is the new head coach, but the team didn’t do much to address the offense over the offseason. The vibe surrounding Chicago is pessimistic at best.
- Los Angeles Chargers 10 (-140/+120): The Chargers are receiving a lot of preseason hype and are currently one of the top six favorites in Super Bowl futures. Current odds indicate that bettors expect the team to hit the over on wins.
- Philadelphia Eagles 9.5 (-150/-125): After a surprising playoff berth last year and some offseason improvements, the Eagles could soar a bit higher this year. The over on wins has been the more popular of the two options to date.