The waiting is over. NFL survivor pools begin this week. From Thursday night to the Monday finale, bettors have 16 games to sort through. There are clear favorites in a handful of contests. We can expect those teams to be quite popular survivor pool choices.
Beyond the obvious selections, a few others have strong cases, and a number of games appear to be closer matchups. Down below, we have a complete look at the NFL Week 1 survivor pool, with implied win probabilities for all of the favorites based on the latest odds.
NFL Week 1 moneyline odds
The table below has the latest moneyline odds for all 16 Week 1 games at top football betting sites.
NFL Survivor Week 1: Implied win probabilities
The implied win probabilities for all of the favorites based on the current moneyline odds are in the table below. As a general rule, the heavy favorites are popular picks in weekly NFL survivor pools, especially in the early going.
| Game | Favorite | Moneyline Odds | Implied Probability |
| Patriots at Bengals | Bengals | -375 | 78.9% |
| Cardinals at Bills | Bills | -295 | 74.7% |
| Broncos at Seahawks | Seahawks | -250 | 71.4% |
| Jets at 49ers | 49ers | -200 | 66.7% |
| Panthers at Saints | Saints | -192 | 65.7% |
| Titans at Bears | Bears | -190 | 65.5% |
| Rams at Lions | Lions | -175 | 63.6% |
| Commanders at Buccaneers | Buccaneers | -165 | 62.3% |
| Jaguars at Dolphins | Dolphins | -162 | 61.8% |
| Steelers at Falcons | Falcons | -160 | 61.5% |
| Raiders at Chargers | Chargers | -155 | 60.8% |
| Ravens at Chiefs | Chiefs | -150 | 60.0% |
| Texans at Colts | Texans | -148 | 59.7% |
| Packers at Eagles | Eagles | -135 | 57.4% |
| Cowboys at Browns | Browns | -135 | 57.4% |
| Vikings at Giants | Vikings | -120 | 54.5% |
Biggest moneyline favorites for NFL Week 1 games
Looking at the table above, three teams have implied win probabilities of 70% or greater: the Bengals, Bills, and Seahawks. We can safely expect this trio of squads to be popular selections for Week 1 survivor pools.
The Bengals will be home against a Patriots team that appears to be headed toward a season of transition. Cincinnati is hovering around the top five in preseason Super Bowl 59 odds, while New England is at the bottom of the charts.
The Bills are heavy home favorites as they get set to host the Cardinals. Buffalo has won the AFC East four seasons in a row and is a favorite to be in the division title mix once again. Arizona is looking to turn things around after consecutive 4-13 campaigns.
The Seahawks have a new head coach in Mike Macdonald. They’re hefty home favorites against the visiting Broncos, who have a changing of the guard of their own. It’ll be rookie Bo Nix under center as the team looks to bounce back from an 8–9 season.
Several potentially close contests for Week 1
As of this writing, nine of the 16 Week 1 games have a point spread of a field goal or less. For each of these games, the favorite checks in with an implied win probability of less than 63%.
While not exactly a toss-up that’s akin to a 50/50 proposition, games that are projected to be this tight could be a little too close for comfort for Week 1 survivor pools. On that list is the opening game of the season, which is a rematch of the AFC title tilt.
On Thursday Night Football, the defending champion Chiefs will take on the Ravens. A season ago, the Chiefs also kicked off as the reigning champs, playing host to the Lions on TNF. They dropped a 21-20 decision as 3.5-point favorites.
For a few of the games that sportsbooks expect to be tighter, the spread has shifted since the initial release. On that list is the Cowboys versus the Browns. Cleveland opened as a one-point favorite but is now a 2.5-point favorite as we count down to kickoff.
The rest of the Week 1 slate
In between the two extremes of heavy favorites and close calls, we have four games in which the home side is favored by 3.5 points or more. On Sunday, it’s an NFC South battle as the Panthers travel to take on the Saints.
The Titans will be on the road to take on the Bears, a game that marks the debut of Caleb Williams, the current favorite in Offensive Rookie of the Year odds. And on Sunday Night Football, it’s a playoff rematch with the Rams traveling to face the Lions.
The week will conclude with the Jets at the 49ers on Monday Night Football. San Francisco is one of the top two preseason favorites, along with the Chiefs, in early Super Bowl odds. New York will welcome back Aaron Rodgers, the favorite in Comeback Player of the Year odds.
A sneak peek at NFL Week 2 lines
Early betting lines are available for NFL Week 2 games at top online sportsbooks. As we scroll through the matchups, there are four clear favorites based on the current spreads:
- Saints at Cowboys (-6)
- Raiders at Ravens (-7.5)
- 49ers (-6.5) at Vikings
- Buccaneers at Lions (-6.5)
For NFL survivor pools, part of the strategic approach is not just looking to live to fight another day, but also to plan ahead for the coming weeks. Looking at the implied win probabilities for Week 1 games, the 49ers are the only one of the four above favorites to check in at over 66%.
The Cowboys and Ravens are underdogs to the Browns and Chiefs, respectively. The Lions have an implied probability of 63.6% as they prepare to host the Rams. If the 49ers or Lions are on your list of possibilities for Week 1, keep in mind that they also have potentially favorable matchups on tap for Week 2.
As for this week’s heavy favorites, the sledding could be a bit tougher next time around. The Bills are 1.5-point road underdogs against the Dolphins in Week 2. The Seahawks are three-point road favorites as they travel to take on the Patriots. And early betting lines have the Bengals as 3.5-point underdogs for a road game versus the Chiefs.
