The first two weeks of the college football season are in the books.
There have been some notable upsets along the way, and College Football Playoff odds have adjusted in response. The early-season CFP picture continues to come into focus, as the chase is just beginning.
As we get set for college football Week 3 action, many preseason favorites remain in great shape as far as the odds are concerned. Elsewhere, we have plenty of risers and fallers as the nation’s top programs battle to be a part of the 12-team bracket.
Latest College Football Playoff odds
CFP bracket projection
For the expanded CFP format, the five highest-ranked conference champions will receive guaranteed spots, followed by the next seven highest-ranked clubs. Based on the latest college football odds, here’s how the seeds currently would stack up.
- 1 – Georgia Bulldogs
- 2 – Ohio State Buckeyes
- 3 – Miami Hurricanes
- 4 – Utah Utes
- 5 – Texas Longhorns
- 6 – Oregon Ducks
- 7 – Penn State Nittany Lions
- 8 – Ole Miss Rebels
- 9 – Alabama Crimson Tide
- 10 – Tennessee Volunteers
- 11 – Missouri Tigers
- 12 – Boise State Broncos
Georgia and Ohio State continue to hold down the top two spots. The eventual winners of the SEC and Big Ten are widely expected to be the top two seeds.
Miami is the current favorite to win the ACC in college football conference odds, and Utah is the favorite to win the Big 12. Behind the four leaders, SEC and Big Ten programs hold down the next seven spots on the list.
Texas has the shortest odds of five SEC squads, with Oregon slightly ahead of fellow Big Ten member Penn State. Looking back to last week, the biggest change is Notre Dame plummeting from fifth to 16th in CFP odds following an upset loss to Northern Illinois.
Boise State has edged in front of Liberty for the best CFP odds among Group of Five clubs. The Broncos are 1-1 and favored to win the Mountain West, while the 2-0 Flames are the favorites to win Conference USA.
Potential CFP first-round matchups
In the new playoff format, the winners of the Power Four conferences will receive first-round byes. If the seeding were to match the current odds, the opening matchups would look like this:
- (12) Boise State vs. (5) Texas
- (11) Missouri vs. (6) Oregon
- (10) Tennessee vs. (7) Penn State
- (9) Alabama vs. (8) Ole Miss
For the current projected seeds, the SEC and Big Ten dominate the landscape. The two powerhouse conferences currently hold down nine of the 12 slots.
However, the CFP selection committee rankings will have the final say on the seeding for the tournament. The committee’s first rankings for this season is scheduled to come out on Nov. 5.
According to the latest betting numbers from BetMGM Sportsbook, three teams have attracted more than 10% of the handle on wagers to win the national title: Ohio State (19.3%), Georgia (17.2%), and Miami (11.5%).
College Football Playoff bubble teams
For this week’s college football playoff bubble watch, the top team on the outside of the projected bracket is USC (+170). The Trojans are 2-0 and 11th in odds to reach the CFP, just ahead of Utah (+175).
However, Utah is the top Big 12 team on the odds board, making it the projected conference winner and the owner of one of the four byes. As the first Group of Five program in the latest lines, Boise State (+350) lands the final spot.
The Fighting Irish (+300) aren’t the only team to take a big tumble. Last week, defending national champion Michigan was just outside of the projected bracket. A 31-12 home loss to Texas has led to the Wolverines (+600) dropping to 24th in the latest CFP odds.
Behind USC, the next bubble teams are Clemson (+225), LSU (+250), and Kansas State (+275). The Wildcats are the only member of the trio to remain undefeated through two weeks of play.
Upcoming matchups that could shake up the CFP race
This week, there are two meetings of teams that are ranked in the latest AP Top 25 poll. Meanwhile, one of the current CFP favorites — which has had to battle to remain undefeated — will be on the road for an annual rivalry game.
- Arizona at Kansas State (-7.5)
- Boston College at Missouri (-16.5)
- Oregon (-16) at Oregon State
No. 14 Kansas State is currently second in odds to win the Big 12, behind Utah. The Wildcats are sizable home favorites for a visit from No. 20 Arizona. The Utes are ranked 12th and will be on the road this week to face Utah State. A victory for the Wildcats plus a Utah loss would likely shake up the CFP picture.
No. 24 Boston College has opened at 2-0, including an upset over Florida State. The Eagles face a stiff test this week when they travel to take on No. 6 Missouri. A victory for the Tigers will likely keep them in the same vicinity on the odds board, while an upset for the Eagles could lead them to soar even further.
Oregon was one of the top four preseason favorites to win the national title, along with Georgia, Ohio State, and Texas. The Ducks have slipped to ninth in the latest AP poll following two challenging wins over Idaho and Boise State. A trip to face rival Oregon State could be a tricky spot for a squad that has had to battle for a pair of close victories.
