An exciting first week of college football action has come to a close. College Football Playoff odds have adjusted in response, providing us with our first glimpse of how the CFP picture may shake out.
The expansion of the College Football Playoff means more teams in the hunt throughout the season. As we get set for college football Week 2 action, many preseason favorites remain near the top of the charts, but there’s already jockeying behind them.
Latest College Football Playoff odds
CFP bracket projection
The College Football Playoff format expanded from four to 12 teams beginning this season. The five highest-ranked conference champions will receive guaranteed spots, followed by the next seven highest-ranked clubs. Based on the latest college football odds, here’s how the seeds currently stack up.
- 1 – Georgia Bulldogs
- 2 – Ohio State Buckeyes
- 3 – Miami Hurricanes
- 4 – Utah Utes
- 5 – Notre Dame Fighting Irish
- 6 – Oregon Ducks
- 7 – Texas Longhorns
- 8 – Penn State Nittany Lions
- 9 – Alabama Crimson Tide
- 10 – Ole Miss Rebels
- 11 – Tennessee Volunteers
- 12 – Liberty Flames
Heading into the season, Georgia, Ohio State, Oregon, and Texas were the top four favorites to win the national title. The Bulldogs and Buckeyes continue to hold down the top two spots in CFP odds. The Ducks and Longhorns remain firmly in the CFP picture but dropped to the sixth and seventh spots based on odds and projected seeding.
Miami and Utah project as the third and fourth seeds as the highest-ranked ACC and Big 12 teams. Notre Dame is the fifth seed based on the latest lines, just ahead of a mix of six Big Ten and SEC squads. Liberty holds down the final slot. The Flames have the best CFP odds among Group of Five programs and are heavy favorites to win Conference USA.
Potential CFP first-round matchups
The winners of the Power Four conferences will receive first-round byes in the new playoff iteration. Based on the seeding projections, the opening matchups would look like this:
- (12) Liberty vs. (5) Notre Dame
- (11) Tennessee vs. (6) Oregon
- (10) Ole Miss vs. (7) Texas
- (9) Alabama vs. (8) Penn State
The SEC is well-represented with four teams, and Big Ten programs hold down another two spots. The two powerhouse conferences are expected to remain highly competitive, setting the stage for plenty of jockeying for position as the campaign moves along.
While Notre Dame is in the fifth slot based on the latest odds, it’s important to remember that the lines won’t necessarily correlate exactly with the seeding. The CFP selection committee’s rankings will continue to serve as the final word.
College Football Playoff bubble teams
The expansion of the CFP also leads to college football’s version of a bubble watch. While the field is now larger than it has ever been before, there will still be some quality teams on the outside looking in at the national title tournament.
Leading the way of the teams that currently fit into that category is Michigan (+175). The defending national champion kicked off the season with a home win over Fresno State. Missouri (+200) is next up, also opening at 1-0 with a convincing victory over Murray State.
Clemson (+225) and LSU (+250) were battling to be in the preseason top 12 in CFP odds but have now tumbled slightly after opening with losses. Clemson fell to Georgia in convincing fashion, 34-3, and LSU dropped a 27-20 decision to USC.
Other programs to keep an eye on include USC (+300) and Kansas State (+300). For the Group of Five teams, Boise State is the next program on the board behind Liberty at odds of +450, which is 21st among all teams.
Upcoming matchups that could shake up the CFP race
From now until the final week of the regular season, there will be matchups that have the potential to shake up the College Football Playoff chase based on their results. The following contests fit the bill for Week 2.
- Texas (-7) at Michigan
- Tennessee (-7.5) at NC State
- Boise State at Oregon (-18.5)
In perhaps the week’s most anticipated matchup, Texas will be on the road to take on Michigan. The line for this one opened with the Longhorns as -3.5 favorites, but the spread has grown substantially since that point. Tennessee is viewed as a CFP contender entering Saturday’s matchup with NC State, a team that’s currently tied for fourth in odds to win the ACC.
If the Wolfpack can pull out an upset, it’s possible that they could move further up the charts while the Volunteers take a tumble. Boise State is looking to overtake Liberty as the top Group of Five squad in early rankings. A monumental upset over Oregon could do the trick, but that’s likely easier said than done as they are currently double-digit road dogs.
