College football Week 1 action continues through this holiday weekend with a packed slate of games.
From Thursday night through to the week’s finale on Monday night, bettors have dozens of contests to choose from. That includes several games featuring massive favorites at college football betting sites.
Finding the upset potential in such a situation can be difficult. However, public betting trends, odds movement, and the current lines can provide some clues on potential options.
Popular underdog bets
The college football season kicked off with a handful of games on Aug. 24. It didn’t take long for the first upset. In the campaign’s opening contest, Georgia Tech stunned Florida State as a 10.5-point underdog.
For the rest of Week 1, here are some of the point spread underdogs that have been attracting interest according to data from BetMGM Sportsbook:
Popular underdogs on the spread
Akron (+50.5) at Ohio State
Akron will be on the road versus Ohio State, one of the top favorites in College Football Playoff odds. The Buckeyes are at +400 to win the national title this season, behind only Georgia (+300). However, that’s not deterring the betting public from looking the Zips’ way for spread bets.
According to BetMGM data, 68% of spread bets and 64% of spread handle have come in on Akron to cover. Last season, Akron finished 2-10 overall and went 4-6-2 against the spread. Ohio State closed with a record of 11-2 straight up and 7-5-1 ATS. The Buckeyes came up short in the annual Michigan vs. Ohio State rivalry game and at the Cotton Bowl against Missouri.
Colorado State (+32.5) at Texas
The Longhorns begin play in the SEC this season. They enter the campaign as the second favorite in conference winner odds at +370, behind only Georgia (+180). Under center for Texas will be Quinn Ewers, one of the top three favorites in preseason Heisman Trophy odds at +1200.
It’s not tough to see why Texas is a hefty favorite as it welcomes Colorado State to town. The Rams were 5-7 overall last season and 4-8 ATS, while the Longhorns went 12-2 on the moneyline and 7-6-1 versus the spread. Colorado State has attracted 74% of the betting handle to cover the 32.5-point spread.
Boston College (+15.5) at Florida State
When BetMGM first released betting lines for this one, Florida State was a comfortable 21.5-point home favorite. In the aftermath of the team’s stunning loss to Georgia Tech in Dublin, the Seminoles’ line has tightened to -15.5. Additionally, public betting is trending toward the road underdog Eagles to get the cover.
For this game at BetMGM, 83% of spread bets and 96% of the handle have come in on Boston College to get the cover. Florida State entered the campaign ranked 10th in the preseason AP Top 25 poll, a season after going 13-1 overall and 8-6 ATS. The Eagles finished the season at 7-6 on the moneyline and 5-8 versus the spread.
Popular moneyline underdog bets
Popular underdog wagers for college football Week 1 action aren’t limited to which teams will cover the spread. Over at BetMGM, a couple of underdogs are attracting wagering interest on the moneyline to win the game outright.
West Virginia (+240) vs. Penn State
According to the spread, Penn State is a 10.5-point road favorite versus West Virginia. However, at BetMGM, the Mountaineers have attracted 81% of the total moneyline bets and 80% of the handle to win the game outright.
The Nittany Lions are ranked eighth in the preseason poll and are one of the top 10 national title favorites. Meanwhile, West Virginia is unranked and ninth of 16 teams in odds to win the Big 12 at +2000. This is a rematch from Week 1 of last season, where Penn State picked up a 38-15 home win.
Potential upsets based on odds
The point spreads for two of the week’s marquee games are incredibly tight. That sets the stage for some upset potential in what could be a pair of closely contested matchups.
Miami at Florida (+2.5)
For this meeting of in-state rivals, Miami is a slight road favorite. The Hurricanes rank 19th in the preseason poll and are second in odds to win the ACC at +350. Miami is looking to bounce back from a challenging 7-6 campaign, with Washington State transfer Cam Ward as a new QB1.
Florida is also looking to rebound from a disappointing 5-7 season. The Gators are toward the back of the pack in preseason odds to win the SEC at +15000, which is 12th of 16 teams. The all-time series between the two squads has been competitive, with Miami holding a 29-27 advantage.
Notre Dame (+3) at Texas A&M
One of Week 1’s marquee matchups takes place at Kyle Field in College Station. Two ranked squads will square off in primetime as seventh-ranked Notre Dame travels to take on Texas A&M, 20th in the preseason poll. Both clubs are expected to be in the mix for the first season of the expanded College Football Playoff field.
In early odds to make the CFP, the Fighting Irish are fifth on the board at -167. The Aggies (+250) check in at 16th. Just five conference champions are guaranteed berths, leaving the final seven spots open to the best-ranked teams. The field-goal spread points to a potentially tight game for a contest that could have a huge bearing down the road.
Were there any big college football Week 1 upsets last season?
There were two memorable upsets in Week 1 a season ago, both of which saw ranked teams go down to defeat.
TCU was ranked 17th and was a -20.5 home favorite versus Colorado. The game quickly turned into a shootout, with the visiting Buffaloes matching the Horned Frogs blow-for-blow. Shedeur Sanders hooked up with Dylan Edwards for a 46-yard TD that would prove to be the difference maker as Colorado escaped with a 45-42 stunner.
Clemson entered last season ranked ninth in the nation and traveled to face Duke in the opener as 11.5-point favorites. The Blue Devils struck first and held a 6-0 lead, but the Tigers regrouped for a 7-6 halftime advantage. Following the break, it was all Duke, which cruised to a 28-7 upset victory over its ACC foe.
