The Florida State Seminoles return from Ireland with plenty of questions to answer, while oddsmakers have indicated how much an early loss means in the new college football world.
Florida State went to Dublin as a heavy favorite over ACC rival Georgia Tech, but the Seminoles return home looking to salvage a season they hoped would end in the College Football Playoff.
After Saturday’s 24-21 last-second stunner, FSU’s paths to the playoff and ACC crown have taken a hit. But with 12 teams now joining the postseason dance, one-loss teams like Florida State might not have as tough an uphill climb as before in College Football Playoff odds.
In short, Florida State’s climb isn’t as steep as it would have been a year ago, though last season’s four-team playoff format didn’t do FSU any favors, either.
Florida State’s CFP odds compared to Clemson’s last year
Florida State’s plight this season under the expanded College Football Playoff format can be compared to ACC rival Clemson a year ago.
- The Seminoles entered this season ranked No. 10 in the AP Top 25. Clemson was No. 9 at the start of last season.
- When the Tigers lost their opener 28-7 to Duke, the team’s national championship odds dipped from +1800 to +7500.
- This year, FSU dropped on the same national championship odds from +3000 to +6000, according to BetMGM Sportsbook.
While this isn’t an apples-to-apples comparison, it’s notable that Clemson had shorter odds to win it all last season and then became a longer shot after one loss than a team that started as a longer shot this preseason.
As one would expect, the odds indicate the 12-team playoff truly opens things up for more teams this season and changes the dynamic of the regular season.
In addition, the Seminoles’ odds of making the CFP dipped following the loss, moving from +150 in advance of the game to +500 in the aftermath. In college football conference odds, the Seminoles were tied with Clemson for the top spot in ACC betting lines at +280. They’re now tied for third with NC State at +600, behind Clemson (+275) and Miami (+325).
Last season, Florida State closed the regular season undefeated. In part because of an injury to starting quarterback Jordan Travis, the Seminoles missed a CFP berth and instead went to the Orange Bowl, losing to Georgia in a 63-3 rout.
That FSU team was the only undefeated Power Five team to ever miss the CFP.
Seminoles fall in Ireland as double-digit favorites
On Saturday, the Seminoles walked onto the field as 10.5-point favorites at college football betting sites. After taking the opening kickoff, they marched down the field for a seven-play, 75-yard scoring drive and ensuing two-point conversion to go up 8-0. Georgia Tech quickly answered with a 79-yard scoring drive of its own.
The game remained tight the rest of the way. After the Yellow Jackets took an early fourth-quarter lead, the Seminoles tied it up with a little over six minutes remaining. They wouldn’t touch the ball again. Georgia Tech capped off a lengthy drive with a 44-yard game-winning field goal as time expired to exit with a 24-21 upset.
In pregame betting insights, BetMGM noted that it received five times as many bets on FSU-GT compared to other games on the light docket. In betting volume, the public was leaning toward FSU, with 60% of the spread and 88% of the moneyline handle coming in on the favored Seminoles.
What’s on tap for Florida State?
A single loss doesn’t completely derail the season for FSU, but it does make the road ahead much more challenging. The clearest path to the CFP was to win the ACC, securing a spot as one of the five conference champions that gained automatic entry into the tournament.
Now 0-1 in conference play to begin the season, the Seminoles may have to win out to reach the conference title game. Looking ahead, they’ll battle the two current conference favorites in the weeks ahead: at home versus Clemson on Oct. 5 and at Miami on Oct. 26.
Next is a home date with Boston College on Sept. 2 as college football Week 1 action continues. FSU is a 17-point favorite as it looks to move past its opening-game defeat.
After the BC game, FSU will be home for two more: first against AAC squad Memphis, followed by a date with Cal, which joins the ACC this season following the latest round of conference realignment.
