NFL Week 7 Survivor Pools: Top Favorites & Implied Probabilities


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NFL Week 7 Survivor Pools: Top Favorites & Implied Probabilities

A third of the way through the regular season, NFL survivor pool contestants who remain alive have certainly earned it.

For the first five weeks of action, a number of surprising upsets wreaked havoc on entrants. Last week, a slight sense of normality returned as many of the week’s top favorites pulled out victories. 

If you remain in the hunt for NFL Week 7 games and second-chance survivor pools, there are 15 games to consider. Below, we take a detailed look at the options for this week’s selection.

NFL Week 7 moneyline odds

The table below has the latest moneyline odds for Week 7 games at top football betting sites

NFL survivor Week 7: Implied win probabilities 

The implied win probabilities for the favorites in this week’s games — based on the current moneyline odds — are in the table below. The top favorites tend to be popular picks in weekly NFL survivor pools.    

GameFavoriteMoneyline OddsImplied Probability
Titans at BillsBills-45081.82%
Panthers at CommandersCommanders-36078.26%
Raiders at RamsRams-29074.36%
Bengals at BrownsBengals-24571.01%
Patriots at JaguarsJaguars-23069.70%
Ravens at BuccaneersRavens-18564.91%
Eagles at GiantsEagles-17062.96%
Dolphins at ColtsColts-16462.12%
Seahawks at FalconsFalcons-14859.68%
Texans at PackersPackers-14859.68%
Chargers at CardinalsChargers-14258.68%
Lions at VikingsVikings-13056.52%
Broncos at SaintsBroncos-12755.95%
Jets at SteelersJets-12254.95%
Chiefs at 49ersChiefs-11653.70%

At last — big favorites deliver for survivor pool players

Heading into Week 6, the biggest moneyline favorite on the board was the Philadelphia Eagles over the visiting Browns. They didn’t make it easy, but the Eagles delivered a 20-16 win after entering as 8.5-point favorites. 

At Circa Sportsbook, all five of last week’s top picks — Eagles, Packers, Ravens, Falcons, and Texans — went on to victory. It was a welcome change from the first five weeks of the pool, which saw a steady stream of upsets.  

For perspective on the carnage that we have witnessed, consider that there were 14,226 entrants into this year’s Circa pool. Heading into Week 6, just 221 remained alive. 

Biggest moneyline favorites for NFL Week 7 games  

There are two heavy home favorites this week: the 4-2 Bills versus the 1-4 Titans and the 4-2 Commanders versus the 1-5 Panthers. 

While there are no certainties once NFL games kick off, it’s a pair of playoff contenders welcoming teams that will likely be in the running for the top selection at next year’s NFL Draft.  

Just two other teams have an implied win probability over 70%. The 1-4 Rams are home favorites against the 2-4 Raiders, and the 2-4 Bengals are road favorites for a date with the 1-5 Browns. 

While Las Vegas and Cleveland have had their share of issues through six weeks, the same is true for Los Angeles and Cincinnati. 

A little further down the list, the Jaguars are favored over the Patriots in London. Jacksonville came up short across the pond last week versus the Bears, while New England has dropped five straight. 

The Ravens are a road favorite for a Monday Night Football date with the Buccaneers. Baltimore is 4-2 so far, and Tampa Bay is 3-3.   

The rest of the Week 7 schedule

Of the remaining nine games, five have clear favorites. Included in that group is the 3-2 Eagles, who will be on the road to face the 2-4 Giants.

At the bottom of the list are four games that sportsbooks view as much tighter, including the Broncos at the Saints on Thursday Night Football

Lions vs. Vikings and Jets vs. Steelers are meetings of teams that are expected to compete for the NFL playoffs. Last but not least, the top two favorites in Super Bowl odds — the Chiefs and the 49ers — will square off in a marquee matchup. 

A sneak peek at NFL Week 8 lines

Early betting lines are available for Week 8 games. Based on the current point spreads, there appear to be a few sizable favorites:

The Lions and Chiefs are involved in two of this week’s potentially tight games. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are road dogs as they travel to take on the Colts. 

As you plan ahead for survivor pool entries, those are three squads that will likely not be on many people’s radars this week. If you haven’t used any of this trio yet, there could be a good opportunity to do so next week.   

Photo by Associated Press/Adam Hunger