The field of entrants has been whittled down even further in NFL survivor pools.
For the second consecutive week, a big moneyline favorite fell in a stunning upset at home. Other favored squads also lost in a wild week of action, leaving many of those who are now out of the running scratching their heads.
Those who have lived to fight another week have certainly earned it. The NFL Week 3 schedule has plenty of options to consider as half of this week’s favorites are at -200 odds or longer.
NFL Week 3 moneyline odds
The table below has the latest moneyline odds for all 16 Week 3 games at top football betting sites.
NFL survivor Week 3: Implied win probabilities
The implied win probabilities for the favorites in this week’s games based on the current moneyline odds are in the table below. The biggest favorites are usually popular picks in weekly NFL survivor pools.
| Game | Favorite | Moneyline Odds | Implied Probability |
| Commanders at Bengals | Bengals | -365 | 78.49% |
| 49ers at Rams | 49ers | -345 | 77.53% |
| Broncos at Buccaneers | Buccaneers | -310 | 75.61% |
| Patriots at Jets | Jets | -285 | 74.03% |
| Giants at Browns | Browns | -275 | 73.33% |
| Jaguars at Bills | Bills | -245 | 71.01% |
| Panthers at Raiders | Raiders | -230 | 69.70% |
| Dolphins at Seahawks | Seahawks | -205 | 67.21% |
| Chiefs at Falcons | Chiefs | -180 | 64.29% |
| Packers at Titans | Titans | -150 | 60.00% |
| Lions at Cardinals | Lions | -145 | 59.18% |
| Eagles at Saints | Saints | -143 | 58.85% |
| Texans at Vikings | Texans | -136 | 57.63% |
| Chargers at Steelers | Steelers | -124 | 55.36% |
| Bears at Colts | Colts | -115 | 53.49% |
| Ravens at Cowboys | Ravens | -112 | 52.83% |
Ravens’ loss wreaks havoc on NFL survivor pools
In Week 1, the Bengals were huge favorites over the visiting Patriots. Cincinnati was a popular pick in survivor pools as a result, but it couldn’t get the job done in a 16-10 defeat.
It happened again with another big favorite in Week 2. The Ravens were 8.5-point favorites over the visiting Raiders.
Baltimore held a 23-13 lead in the fourth quarter and appeared to have victory at hand. Las Vegas, however, proceeded to mount three unanswered scoring drives to exit with a 26-23 win.
The Bengals’ loss in the opener knocked 34.3% of the participants out of the Circa Sportsbook survivor pool. The Ravens’ defeat eliminated 26.5% of the remaining contestants.
Through two weeks, over 50% of Circa survivor pool contestants have been eliminated courtesy of massive upsets for home favorites. Said another way, there are no sure things when it comes to NFL games.
Biggest moneyline favorites for NFL Week 3 games
There are three heavy favorites in Week 3, all with odds of -300 or greater and an implied win probability of over 75%: the Bengals, 49ers, and Buccaneers.
Interestingly, 0-2 Cincinnati is currently the biggest moneyline favorite. The Bengals will be at home this week for a Monday Night Football showdown with the Commanders, who are 1-1 on the season.
The 49ers are 1-1 following an upset loss to the Vikings. They travel to face the 0-2 Rams, who are looking to bounce back from a 41-10 shellacking at the hands of the Cardinals.
The Buccaneers are 2-0 following an upset road win over the Lions. They’re big favorites at home this week over the Broncos, who are 0-2 after a loss to the Steelers.
Behind the top three favorites, three other squads have an implied win probability of over 70%: the Jets, Browns, and Bills.
New York hosts the Patriots in a battle of 1-1 AFC East teams on Thursday Night Football. The Browns are 1-1 after a win over the Jaguars and now play host to the winless Giants.
And in an MNF doubleheader this week, the undefeated Bills will welcome the 0-2 Jaguars.
The rest of this week’s matchups
For the remainder of the slate, there are a handful of other sizable favorites.
The Raiders are 1-1 following their upset over the Ravens. They return home to face the Panthers. Carolina has lost both of its games by double digits and has benched Bryce Young in favor of Andy Dalton.
The 2-0 Seahawks welcome a Dolphins team that appears likely to have Skylar Thompson under center. Tua Tagovailoa had to exit last week’s TNF loss to the Bills due to a concussion.
The Chiefs will be in the Sunday Night Football spotlight as they travel to take on the 1-1 Falcons. Kansas City is undefeated but had to dig to pull out home wins over both the Ravens and Bengals.
In the remaining seven games, the implied win probability for the favored side is 60% or less. There are two meetings of 2-0 teams among that group: Texans at Vikings and Chargers at Steelers.
A sneak peek at NFL Week 4 lines
Early betting lines are available for Week 4 games. Based on the current point spreads, there appear to be four sizable favorites:
- Cowboys (-6.5) at Giants
- Bengals (-7) at Panthers
- Broncos at Jets (-8.5)
- Patriots at 49ers (-10)
The Cowboys welcome the Ravens this week. The game is hovering around a toss-up, with Dallas looking to bounce back from a convincing home loss to the Saints.
The Bengals, Jets, and 49ers are among this week’s top moneyline favorites. If they’re on your radar for a survivor pool pick, just keep in mind that another appealing opportunity for each could be on tap in Week 4.
