NFL betting apps rebounded in Week 2 as sportsbooks slogged through another stretch of rough game outcomes.
NFL betting app downloads rose 34% year-over-year in Week 2, reversing the Week 1 decline seen at nearly every operator, according to Citizens Bank. Sportsbooks however, are expected to have ended up on the losing side of wagers more than they planned for, a trend that burned them more than ever last year.
NFL betting downloads bounce back
DraftKings led with 421,000 downloads, edging out FanDuel for the season lead, followed by bet365 and Fanatics.
When excluding newer entrants bet365 and Fanatics, downloads still grew 20% year-over-year in Week 2, a positive sign after falling 4% in Week 1 without them, according to Citizens. Growth numbers for both apps have benefited from being available in more markets this season versus last, while larger operators will have to wait until December to add another sports betting market.
Citizens analyst Jordan Bender called the Week 2 rebound encouraging and noted that Netflix’s broadcast of the Canelo Alvarez–Terence Crawford fight likely boosted downloads, similar to the Jake Paul–Mike Tyson fight last November.
DraftKings hit by worst game result ever
The first Sunday Night Football game between the Bills and Ravens delivered DraftKings’ single worst outcome in company history.
Public player props hit, the total went over, and a surge of live moneyline bets on Buffalo cashed as the Bills mounted a fourth-quarter comeback. DraftKings maintains that outside that result, outcomes across Weeks 1 and 2 are tracking “fine,” Bender noted.
Favorites are 24-8 straight up through the first two weeks, meaning popular moneyline parlays and teasers are cashing again at an unusually high rate. Primetime scoring has also been costly, as 10 of the first 15 night games have gone over their total, fueling more Same Game Parlay and player prop wins.
“Following poor game outcomes in the last two NFL seasons, actual gaming margins have underperformed expected margins to start the year,” Bender said.
Margins fall below target
Sportsbooks held roughly 8% collectively in Week 2, according to Macquarie’s property hold model, up from about 5% in Week 1 in New York, one of the few states that reports weekly data. That is still below their 9.5% target range, however.
Moneyline bets were the biggest drag, with Macquarie projecting a –3% hold on the bet type.
“Unusually, sportsbooks still managed to outperform on total bets due to unders hitting in primetime games [in Week 2] as well as marquee matchups between PHI/KC and BUF/NYJ,” Macquarie analyst Chad Benyon wrote. “There were no moneyline upsets in the top seven in Week 2, which we view negatively for high hold, particularly favorite parlay bets.”
Bender did not provide hold projections in his note, saying it has become “nearly impossible” to calculate weekly margins accurately given the growth of prepackaged parlays and customizable odds products. He also cited the potential to cause unwarranted panic among investors.
NFL betting stokes investor volatility
Both Citizens and Macquarie have maintained sports betting stock prices are tied more than ever to immediate game results, with last year’s unfavorable outcomes not yet viewed as a one-off.
“We believe investors are going to question pricing related to more advanced bets and player props until we see several weeks of better-than-expected results,” Bender said.
DraftKings stock is down 6.7% since the NFL season began, while FanDuel parent Flutter is down 5.4% as of Tuesday morning.
“Although not an ideal start to the NFL season from a game outcome or execution perspective, positive game outcomes in 4Q will be the main driver of stock performance for DKNG/FLUT over the next several months,” Benyon said.
