The results of last week have shaken up the College Football Playoff picture.
In the latest College Football Playoff odds, Texas is now in the top spot. Oregon has moved into second following a victory over Ohio State on Saturday.
As we get ready for college football Week 8 games, here’s a detailed look at the current state of the CFP race.
Latest College Football Playoff odds
CFP bracket projection
Based on the expanded CFP format, the five highest-ranked conference champions receive automatic berths. The remaining slots go to the next seven highest-ranked clubs. Here’s how the seeds would look based on the latest college football odds:
- 1 – Texas Longhorns
- 2 – Oregon Ducks
- 3 – Miami Hurricanes
- 4 – Iowa State Cyclones
- 5 – Ohio State Buckeyes
- 6 – Penn State Nittany Lions
- 7 – Georgia Bulldogs
- 8 – Alabama Crimson Tide
- 9 – Clemson Tigers
- 10 – Notre Dame Fighting Irish
- 11 – Boise State Broncos
- 12 – Tennessee Volunteers
Texas improved to 6-0 with a 34-3 win over Oklahoma on Saturday. The Longhorns have taken over the top seed in this week’s projection.
Oregon is up to second following a 32-31 win over Ohio State. The Buckeyes were the top team in last week’s odds-based bracket but are now down to the fifth slot.
Miami returns from a bye week at 6-0 and is battling with Clemson to win the ACC. Iowa State is also 6-0 and remains the favorite to win the Big 12.
Seeds have shifted for other teams, including Alabama, which dropped from sixth to eighth. Tennessee is back in the projected field this week, replacing Ole Miss.
At BetMGM Sportsbook, Ohio State has attracted the most betting handle to win it all at 18.9%. Georgia (16.9%) is next, followed by Texas (11.9%).
Potential CFP first-round matchups
When the seeds are officially unveiled, the winners of the Power Four conferences — the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, and SEC — are expected to receive byes for the opening round. The next eight seeds will play to see who advances. If the seeding and current odds ended up aligning, the opening matchups would look like this:
- (12) Tennessee vs. (5) Ohio State
- (11) Boise State vs. (6) Penn State
- (10) Notre Dame vs. (7) Georgia
- (9) Clemson vs. (8) Alabama
The tally for this week’s first-round matchups stands at three SEC teams — Georgia, Alabama, and Tennessee — and two squads from the Big Ten — Ohio State and Penn State.
Joining them are the ACC’s Clemson, independent Notre Dame, and Boise State. The Broncos are the favorite among Group of Five programs to reach the postseason and also have the Heisman Trophy favorite in Ashton Jeanty.
The current odds serve as a guide to how the projected seeds and College Football Playoff bracket might shake out. However, the CFP selection committee rankings still serve as the final word, with the first edition due on Nov. 5.
College Football Playoff bubble teams
The first three bubble teams for this week are all from the SEC: Texas A&M (+135), LSU (+175), and Ole Miss (+200). The Aggies and Tigers are 5-1, while the Rebels are 5-2.
Further down the list, just four other bubble teams have current odds to reach the CFP of +400 or less: SMU (+250), Kansas State (+270), Indiana (+400), and Missouri (+400).
Teams whose odds have dropped substantially include Michigan and USC, who are both at +4000 after entering the campaign among the top 10 favorites. The defending champions Wolverines are 4-2, while the Trojans are 3-3.
Upcoming games that could impact the CFP race
There are two ranked vs. ranked matchups on the Week 8 docket that could have a big impact on the College Football Playoff chase:
- (7) Alabama (-2.5) at (11) Tennessee
- (5) Georgia at (1) Texas (-3.5)
Since opening the season at 4-0, Alabama suffered an upset loss to Vanderbilt and escaped with a two-point win over South Carolina. The Crimson Tide’s odds of making the CFP have dipped as a result, but they remain in the projected mix.
Tennessee is 5-1, rebounding from a loss to Arkansas with an overtime win over Florida. The winner of this one will likely move up the chart in next week’s projection.
Georgia is 5-1, with its lone loss coming at the hands of Alabama. The Bulldogs were the preseason national title favorites.
Texas is now the top-ranked team in the AP Top 25 poll following a 6-0 start. The winner of this showdown could be top SEC squad in the next edition of our bracket.