College Football Week 4 Popular Underdog Bets: Upset Potential


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College Football Week 4 Popular Underdog Bets: Upset Potential 

Another marathon Saturday of wall-to-wall college football action is on tap. 

The College Football Week 4 schedule is filled with options for bettors to consider. There are matchups of ranked teams, conference showdowns, and a number of games that have heavy favorites. 

Trying to spot the upsets in such a massive slate is a tall task. However, public betting trends, odds movement, and current lines can help you shorten the list of candidates. 

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BetMGM data on Week 4 underdogs

According to BetMGM Sportsbook, two of this week’s marquee matchups have been attracting strong interest from bettors. 

“USC-Michigan and Tennessee-Oklahoma are going to have the most action on Saturday. The book is going to need both dogs here. Michigan and Oklahoma could determine our whole Saturday,” said Seamus Magee, a trading manager at BetMGM.

Several point spread and moneyline underdogs are also popular choices this week at the online sportsbook. Elsewhere on the schedule, a few games appear to be close to toss-ups with incredibly tight spreads  

Popular underdogs on the spread

NC State (+19.5) at Clemson

At BetMGM, 77% of the total bets on this game have come in on NC State to get the cover. The Wolfpack are 2-1 on the season so far, bouncing back from a loss to Tennessee with a victory over Louisiana Tech. 

Clemson, meanwhile, is 1-1. It dropped its opener to Georgia and rebounded with a win over Appalachian State. NC State has won two of its last three meetings with Clemson, taking last season’s matchup by a score of 24-17.

Bowling Green (+22.5) at Texas A&M

Bowling Green is 1-1, with its most recent game being a 34-27 loss to Penn State. The Falcons are huge underdogs for this road trip to Texas A&M, but 67.7% of the betting handle on the game at BetMGM is calling for the underdog to cover. 

The Aggies are 2-1, with two straight wins following an opening loss to Notre Dame. For the season to date, the Falcons are 2-0 against the spread, and Texas A&M is 1-2.

Popular moneyline underdog bets 

USC at Michigan (+170)

The Trojans are road favorites for a trip to face the defending national champions, who have announced a switch to Alex Orji at QB. USC is 2-0 on the season, while the Wolverines are 2-1, with the loss coming at the hands of visiting Texas. 

At BetMGM, 70% of bets on the game are calling for Michigan to win outright. Over the last five seasons, the Wolverines are 2-3 in the home underdog role. 

Miami at South Florida (+625)

The Hurricanes are off to an impressive 3-0 start, outscoring opponents 159-26 along the way. Despite that, 61% of bets and 78% of the moneyline handle at BetMGM for the game are on South Florida to pull off the upset. 

The Bulls are 2-1, with the blemish coming at the hands of Alabama, 42-16. Miami QB Cameron Ward has taken over as the betting favorite in Heisman Trophy odds

Potential upsets based on the odds

Utah at Oklahoma State (-2.5)

It’s a Big 12 showdown at Boone Pickens Stadium, and one that could have an impact on the College Football Playoff chase. Utah and Oklahoma State are both a perfect 3-0 to begin the campaign. 

The spread for this one has been on the move. The Utes were initially -1.5 favorites, but the line has flipped to Cowboys -2.5. 

Baylor at Colorado (-1.5)

Baylor and Colorado will clash for the first time since 2010, a 31-25 victory for the Bears. The line has been holding steady, with 63% of the spread handle at BetMGM coming in on the Buffaloes. 

Both clubs are 2-1 and are coming off victories last week. Baylor defeated Air Force 31-3, and Colorado posted a 28-9 win over Colorado State.

Were there any big college football upsets last week? 

Florida State was an upset victim once again last week. The Seminoles dropped to 0-3 with a 20-12 loss to visiting Memphis in a game in which they were 6.5-point favorites. 

Washington State got the better of rival Washington by a score of 24-19. The Huskies walked onto the field as 5.5-point home favorites for that one.  

On the spread, Georgia failed to cover while squeaking out a 13-12 road win over Kentucky. The Bulldogs headed into the game as 21.5-point favorites. 

Photo by Associated Press