Weather Prediction Markets: Where to Trade On The Forecast in August 2026
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A weather forecast is really just a probability dressed up as a number. Weather prediction markets take that same idea and let you trade on it directly, buying a “yes” or “no” contract on whether a specific temperature, storm, or weather event actually happens.
Coverage ranges from something as narrow as tomorrow’s high in a single city to season-long questions about hurricane activity. Since weather data is public and updates constantly, these markets tend to move fast, and there’s rarely a shortage of something new to trade.
Top weather prediction market platforms
Coverage and depth vary more here than in other categories, so here’s how the main platforms compare.
| Platform | Best For | Welcome Offer |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel Predicts | Simple contract pricing | Register to Unlock Offer |
| Polymarket | Deepest weather market selection | $20 Bonus on First Deposit |
| OG | Wide category mix, social trading features | Trade $10, Get in Bonuses |
| Crypto.com | Traders who prefer a crypto-based platform | Earn up to 1 BTC |
| DraftKings Predictions | Own exchange technology | Trade $5, Get $150 |
| Kalshi | Most granular temperature and hurricane contracts | N/A |
| Robinhood | Beginners already using the app | N/A |
What are weather prediction markets?
A weather prediction market is a place where people trade contracts based on the outcome of a real weather event. Each contract asks a specific yes or no question, like “will the high in Chicago hit 90 degrees today?” or “will a named storm make landfall in Florida this week?”
You buy a “yes” contract if you think the event will happen, or a “no” contract if you think it won’t. The price of each contract moves between 1 cent and 99 cents, and that price reflects what other traders think the odds are. A contract trading at 80 cents is telling you the market sees roughly an 80 percent chance of that outcome.
If you’re right, your contract pays out at $1. If you’re wrong, it pays out at nothing. Because the risk is capped at what you paid, it plays out differently than trying to hedge weather risk any other way.
Is trading on weather markets legal?
Yes, in the US, trading on weather outcomes is legal through regulated platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. These platforms operate under the Commodity Exchange Act and fall under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which treats these contracts as regulated derivatives rather than gambling products.
Weather contracts sit in a slightly different spot than something like sports or politics, since insurers and commodities traders have used weather derivatives for years in a more institutional setting. Retail platforms have simply made that same idea accessible to everyday traders. Availability can still vary by platform and state, so check before signing up.
Weather platforms compared
FanDuel Predicts, Polymarket, OG, Crypto.com, DraftKings Predictions, Kalshi, and Robinhood all take a different approach to weather trading, and coverage depth varies more here than in other categories.
FanDuel Predicts
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Weather isn’t FanDuel Predicts‘ deepest category yet. It’s building out its lineup over time, so expect a smaller selection compared to more established weather-focused platforms for now. If you’re already using the app for sports or other categories, it’s worth checking in periodically as the weather section grows.
- Welcome bonus: Register to Unlock Offer
- Available in: Available in all 50 states
- Best features: Familiar app experience, expanding coverage
Polymarket
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Polymarket runs one of the most comprehensive weather sections around, with markets on daily temperatures in major cities, hurricane formation and landfall, and even longer-running questions on global weather patterns. It’s a strong pick if you want more than just the occasional storm contract. Funding runs through USDC (a stablecoin pegged to the US dollar), so a crypto wallet is part of the setup.
- Welcome bonus: $20 Bonus on First Deposit
- Available in: AK, AL, AR, AZ, CA, CO, CT, DC, DE, FL, GA, HI, IA, ID, IL, IN, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, ME, MI, MN, MO, MS, MT, NC, ND, NE, NH, NJ, NM, NY, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, VT, WA, WI, WV & WY
- Best features: Largest market selection, global reach
OG
OG folds weather into its broader climate category, alongside its other markets. Contract layouts stay simple, and the social feed showing how other traders lean on a given forecast can be a useful gut check before you commit to a position.
- Welcome bonus: Trade $10, Get in Bonuses
- Available in: AK, AL, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, IA, ID, IL, IN, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, ME, MI, MN, MO, MS, MT, NC, ND, NE, NH, NJ, NM, NV, NY, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, VT, WA, WI, WV, WY
- Best features: Simple contract layouts, social trading features
Crypto.com
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Crypto.com lists climate and weather contracts alongside its other prediction categories, so you’re trading a temperature or storm question in the same app you’d use for crypto. Coverage is reasonable on major weather events, though it’s not the deepest bench for something like a niche regional forecast.
- Welcome bonus: Earn up to 1 BTC
- Available in: AL, AK, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI & WY
- Best features: Crypto-native access, familiar app for existing users
DraftKings Predictions
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Weather is one of the newer additions across the DraftKings Predictions lineup, and coverage is still catching up to what you’ll find on a more weather-focused platform. If DKeX continues to expand, this is one of the categories likely to grow along with it.
- Welcome bonus: Trade $5, Get $150
- Available in: AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DC, DE, FL, GA, HI, IA, ID, IL, IN, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, MI, MN, MO, MS, MT, NC, ND, NE, NJ, NM, NY, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, VT, WA, WI, WV & WY
- Best features: Own exchange technology, growing market lineup
Kalshi
Kalshi‘s weather section is the most detailed of any regulated platform, breaking a single city’s forecast into several overlapping temperature brackets rather than one broad call. Beyond daily forecasts, it runs standing categories for hurricanes and other natural disasters, which makes it a strong option if you want precision over a broad guess.
Robinhood
Robinhood added weather contracts through its Kalshi partnership, so daily temperature and storm markets show up right next to your stocks and crypto. It’s convenient if you’re already in the app, though the selection mirrors what Kalshi lists rather than something built independently.
Types of weather markets you can trade
Weather prediction markets cover more ground than a simple hot or cold call. Here are the categories you’ll run into most often.
Daily temperature brackets
These markets ask whether a city’s high or low temperature will land within a specific range on a given day. Because they settle quickly, they’re some of the most actively traded weather contracts day to day.
Precipitation and snowfall
These markets cover whether it will rain or snow in a specific location, sometimes down to a measurable amount, within a set window of time.
Hurricane and storm activity
These contracts track storm formation, path, and landfall, along with broader season questions like total named storms. Trading volume tends to spike as a storm approaches a populated coastline.
Natural disasters
Beyond storms, some platforms list markets on earthquakes above a certain magnitude and tornado counts over a given stretch, often broken into numerical brackets like “more than 150 tornadoes in the US this month.” These tend to see the most activity during spring severe weather season.
Seasonal and climate trends
These longer-running markets ask about broader patterns, like whether a winter will end up warmer than average, or whether a particular year sets a new global temperature record. Some platforms go even further, listing contracts on things like Arctic sea ice extent or monthly CO2 readings, which are aimed at traders who follow climate science closely and are comfortable holding a position for months at a time.
How contract settlement works
Every weather prediction market contract resolves against a specific, verifiable data source, most often an official reading from a source like the National Weather Service. The market page usually names the exact station or data feed used, along with the precise time the reading is taken.
Weather settlement tends to be more objective than something like a mention market in pop culture, since a recorded temperature or confirmed landfall isn’t really up for interpretation. Still, it’s worth double-checking which station or source a contract uses, since readings can vary between nearby locations.
A common trap: you check the weather app and see a high of 91 degrees downtown, so you buy “yes” on a 90-degree contract, only to have it settle against the official airport station miles away, which read a few degrees cooler. You’re not trading the weather you feel; you’re trading the specific number a named station reports.
How to trade on weather markets
Getting started is more straightforward than most people expect. Here’s the general process.
- Sign up and verify your account: Register on a regulated platform and complete identity verification, usually with an ID and some basic personal details.
- Deposit funds: Most platforms accept bank transfers or debit cards, while some rely on crypto deposits. Some offer a welcome bonus for new accounts.
- Browse weather markets: Look under categories like “Weather,” “Climate,” or a specific city name to find current questions you can trade on.
- Buy a contract: Choose “yes” or “no” based on your prediction, and pick how much you want to trade.
- Track your position: Forecasts update constantly, so keep an eye on your contracts as the settlement time approaches.
Fees to expect
Most weather prediction market platforms build their fee into the contract price rather than charging a separate flat fee, though this varies by site. Some platforms charge a small trading fee, often around 2 percent or less. You may also run into fees for deposits or withdrawals depending on your payment method.
These fees are usually listed clearly on the platform, but it’s worth checking before you trade, especially around a major storm when activity tends to spike.
How accurate are weather prediction markets?
Weather markets tend to be fairly accurate close to settlement, since traders can lean on the same forecasting models meteorologists use. A same-day temperature contract, for example, benefits from hours of updated forecast data before it settles.
Accuracy drops the further out you go. A hurricane’s exact path five days out carries real uncertainty, and a seasonal climate question carries even more. Treat longer-running weather contracts with more caution than a next-day forecast.
Tips before you trade weather markets
Weather is more measurable than most other categories, so a little homework goes a long way here.
Keep position sizes modest: Even a well-forecast event can surprise you at the margins.
Understand the exact station or data source a contract uses: Two nearby locations can report slightly different readings.
Lean on short-term contracts while you’re learning: Same-day forecasts are more reliable than a five-day storm path.
Expect volume to spike around major storms: This usually means tighter pricing and more contracts to choose from.
Factor in the fee if you’re trading daily temperature contracts often: Small costs add up over frequent trades.
Weather Prediction Market FAQ
Yes, through regulated platforms like FanDuel Predicts and Kalshi. These operate as federally regulated exchanges rather than gambling operators.
Daily temperature contracts in major cities and active hurricane markets tend to see the most trading volume, especially during storm season.
You can start with a small amount, since contracts are priced between 1 cent and 99 cents. Many traders begin with a modest amount to get familiar with how the markets move.