Week 7 NFL Betting Trends & Analysis: Heavy Action Pouring In After Public’s Big Week


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Week 7 NFL Betting Trends & Analysis: Heavy Action Pouring In After Public's Big Week

NFL Week 7 odds bring another competitive slate without a double-digit favorite, as bookmakers prep for one of the busiest betting weeks of the season so far.

Favorites went 12-4 against the spread and 15-1 straight up last week, making it the most customer-friendly week ever at Caesars Sportsbook and bucking the unprecedented trend of so many upsets to start the season. That is having more of an impact on how much action sportsbooks take in Week 7 as opposed to influencing the odds, oddsmakers say

“A week like that drives engagement, which usually means people are going to just bet more next week,” said Joey Feazel, a head trader at Caesars Sportsbook. “There used to be a sentiment that bookmakers want to get money 50/50 on both sides, but really we’re trying to make picking each side as close to a 50/50 chance of happening as a blackjack hand.”

Three games this week have totals over 50 points, as scoring has increased by about a point over the past three weeks after the season started on pace for its lowest-scoring year since 2009.

Below is a complete breakdown of Week 7 odds, letting you compare lines from multiple NFL betting sites.

Live NFL Week 7 odds

Sunday slate analysis

Patriots vs. Jaguars

The Jaguars are up to -5.5 in this London matchup against the Patriots after opening the week as -4.5 favorites.

It’s expected to be one of the lesser-bet games of the week due to the earlier start time overseas and the quality of both teams, which are each still searching for their second win.

Jacksonville has the travel advantage, having arrived in London more than a week ago to play the Bears last weekend. They lost that game by a score of 35-16, giving up five touchdowns to rookie Caleb Williams despite rookies historically struggling in overseas games. This is Jacksonville’s 13th international game, and the trends line up in the Jaguars’ favor: favorites of three points or more are 21-12 ATS all-time in international games.

They face another rookie this week, as Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (the third overall pick in the NFL Draft in April) is expected to make his second start. His team suffered a 41-21 loss to the Texans in Week 6, but Maye finished a respectable 20-of-33 for 243 passing yards, with three touchdowns and two interceptions in his first career start.

This is projected to be the windiest game of the week, with forecasts of 18 miles per hour and a 50% chance of rain as of Thursday afternoon. That has driven action on the total toward the under at most sportsbooks.

The total is down to 41.5, a point down from where it opened at 42.5.

Dolphins vs. Colts

The Colts are down to -3 at home against the Dolphins after opening as -4.5 favorites, despite heavy action on Miami.

Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson is expected to return to the lineup after missing the last two games due to injury, while Miami will again be without Tua Tagovailoa.

Indianapolis, however, has looked better without Richardson under center. He owns the NFL’s worst completion rate this season at 50% and is averaging the 31st-fewest yards per game at 164. Meanwhile, in his two starts, veteran Joe Flacco has connected on 68% of his passes and averaged 358 passing yards.

“The market is almost treating the Colts having their starting QB play as a bad thing. We’re seeing quite a bit of Dolphins money, and the line movement makes sense with how they’ve played with Flacco instead,” said Ethan Useloff, a trader at Fanatics Sportsbook.

Miami is coming off a bye week, though Tyler Huntley is expected to start again in place of the injured Tagovailoa, who is not eligible to return until Week 8. The Dolphins have failed to score more than 21 points in seven of their eight games without Tagovailoa dating back to last year.

The total climbed to 43.5 on Tuesday and has remained there throughout the week after opening at 42.

Seahawks vs. Falcons

The Falcons are back to -3 at home against the Seahawks after briefly moving down to -2.5 midway through the week.

Seattle has the benefit of extra rest — having played in Week 6 on Thursday Night Football — which typically attracts sharp action. However, Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith is 7-7 ATS for his career on extended rest.

“Despite the line moving toward Seattle, we’re seeing more money on the Falcons, who are coming off that sort of mini-bye, which always gets pro action,” Feazel said.

Useloff explained that reverse line movement: “It’s not necessarily the amount of money; it’s the type of money that moves a line. A lot of sharp folks probably liked that 2.5 because it’s inside of a field goal with the public taking the Falcons at home.”

Both teams rank relatively middle of the pack in scoring. However, they have recorded some of this year’s most standout offensive performances on primetime. Feazel believes that’s likely why this game’s total has been bet up to the highest of the week so far at 51.5. It opened at 48.

Texans vs. Packers

The Packers are –3 favorites against the Texans in what is expected to be one of the most-bet games of the week at Caesars Sportsbook, DraftKings, and Fanatics. That is up from where most sportsbooks opened this at Packers -2.5 and would mark the first time all season the Texans close as underdogs.

“We’re seeing Packers money come in, but you don’t really want to go back and forth between a 2 and 3,” Feazel said, noting the potential for high liability on both sides.

Houston is playing its second leg of a two-game road trip after dismantling the Patriots 41-21 in Week 6. They will again be without star receiver Nico Collins, who is on injured reserve with a hamstring injury. Before that injury, he was leading the NFL in receiving yards. His absence has largely impacted bets tied to Stefon Diggs, whose receiving yards prop is up to 68.5 in this game, 12.5 yards higher than its average with Collins in the lineup.

The Packers are coming off a 34-13 win against the Cardinals in Week 6. Jordan Love finished 22-of-32 for 258 passing yards with four touchdowns and an interception. Romeo Doubs excelled in his return to action with two touchdowns, but fellow pass-catcher Jayden Reed left the game early with an injury. He is trending toward playing Sunday, as the team listed him as a limited participant in Thursday’s practice.

“It looks like the public is waiting for this number to go higher, but I think regardless, the Texans money will show up. They just want to see if it goes up another tick,” said Johnny Avello, the director of race and sportsbook operations at DraftKings.

The total is up to 47.5 after opening at 47.

Bengals vs. Browns

The Bengals are up to -5.5 in this AFC North matchup against the Browns, though they were as high as -6.5 earlier in the week. This line opened at Bengals -4.5 and could move again in either direction before kickoff.

Cleveland is coming off a 20-16 loss to the Eagles in Week 6 and another zero-touchdown performance from Deshaun Watson, who finished 16-of-23 for 186 passing yards.

“There is no belief in the Browns or Watson right now, just none,” said Avello, noting heavy action on the Bengals.

Cincinnati, however, has handed the public some of its most disappointing losses of the season so far, losing outright as a 7.5-point favorite to New England in Week 1 and to Washington in Week 3. It was the most-picked team in Circa Sports’ survivor pool both weeks, eliminating 41.1% of contest entrants in the first three weeks.

“They burn survivor money, that’s for sure,” Avello said.

Browns running back Jerome Ford is doubtful for this game. However, Nick Chubb is in line to return from a knee injury that’s kept him sidelined for more than a full calendar year.

The total is down to 42.5 after opening at 44.5.

Eagles vs. Giants

The Eagles are down to -3 in this NFC East matchup on the road against the Giants, a point from where this opened at Eagles -4.

Action on the side is relatively split at sportsbooks, with the Eagles drawing more money at Caesars and the Giants seeing more at DraftKings.

“When you look at the game, you say, why are they betting on the Giants? They haven’t shown anything, but I guess it’s a divisional game and could be close. If this moves, I’d expect it to be toward 3.5,” Avello said.

The Giants beat the Eagles by 17 points the last time these teams played despite finishing the season with five fewer wins. They have struggled to score this year, averaging the third-fewest points per game, and are coming off a 17-7 loss to the Bengals on Sunday night. Rookie receiver Malik Nabers is expected to return to the lineup, however, which should give New York a much-needed weapon.

Philadelphia, meanwhile, is coming off a 20-16 victory against the Browns in Week 6. Jalen Hurts finished 16-of-25 for 264 yards and two touchdowns, while A.J. Brown made a mark in his return from injury, hauling in six catches for 116 receiving yards and a touchdown.

Saquon Barkley will make his return to MetLife playing for his former team’s rival. His props are expected to be among the most popular of the week.

The total is down to 42.5 after opening at 44.5 and climbing as high as 46 at some sportsbooks late Sunday night.

Lions vs. Vikings

One of the most back-and-forth lines of the week, the Vikings are down to -1.5 at home against the Lions after opening as -1 favorites but climbing as high as -2.5 earlier in the week.

“A sharper group came in on the Lions to move this back down, but it has bounced around all week,” Feazel said. “This looks like a ‘trap line’ because Minnesota is 5-0, but people are believing in the Lions, and this could come down to a pick’em before kickoff.”

Both Detroit and Minnesota are jockeying for the top spot in NFC North odds.

The Lions are coming off a 47-9 win against the Cowboys in Week 6, in whicJared Goff finished 18-of-25 for 315 passing yards and three touchdowns, making him the first quarterback since Drew Brees to record a 150+ pass rating in back-to-back starts. With the Lions, he’s 6-0 ATS in Minnesota.

The Vikings, meanwhile, are coming off a bye week and will be playing on extra rest after their Week 5 trip to London. Along with the Chiefs, they are the NFL’s only other unbeaten team and are just the third team in the last 20 years to be undefeated and flawless against the spread through the first five weeks.

This could wind up being the highest total of the week by kickoff. As of Thursday afternoon, it was up to 50.5, slightly down from 51.5 earlier in the week but still up from where it opened at 49.5.

Titans vs. Bills

The Bills are up to -9 against the Titans from where they opened as -8 favorites and are drawing about two-thirds of the action at most sportsbooks.

“You would think you could just name the number for the Bills to cover, but that hasn’t been the case this year,” Avello said, noting underdogs of five or more points were 19-6-1 (76%) ATS before last week.

The Bills acquired star receiver Amari Cooper from the Browns midway through the week. However, it is still unclear whether he will be active for this game. This line moved up about a half point immediately following news of the trade and went as high as 9.5.

Buffalo remained atop the AFC East after taking care of the Jets 23-20 on Monday night, as Josh Allen finished 19-of-25 for 215 passing yards and two touchdowns. This matchup against Tennessee is shaping up to be Allen’s 27th time closing as a favorite of four points or more. Among qualifying quarterbacks, he is an NFL-worst 9-17-1 ATS in that span.

The Titans are coming off a 20-17 loss to the Colts. In his return from injury, Will Levis finished 16-of-27 for 95 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. The Tennessee running game was a bright spot in defeat, as Tony Pollard racked up 93 rushing yards and a touchdown.

At Fanatics, 99% of moneyline handle is on the Bills, including parlays. Useloff of Fanatics anticipates that the spread could climb as high as 10.5 by kickoff.

The total is down to 41.5 after opening at 43, with a majority of bets on the under at most sportsbooks.

Panthers vs. Commanders

The Commanders are back up to –8 against the Panthers after being favored by as few as 7.5 points earlier in the week.

This line briefly bounced up to 8.5 at some sportsbooks before falling back to where it opened. It would be the first time Washington closes as a favorite of eight points or more since 2017.

Coming off of their 30-23 loss to the Ravens in Week 6, the Commanders are averaging the second-most points per game. The Panthers, on the other hand, are averaging the fifth-fewest through seven weeks. They are averaging about 13 points more per game since benching Bryce Young in favor of Andy Dalton. However, they have struggled to stop opposing offenses and are giving up an NFL-worst 33.8 points per game this season.

The total is at 51.5, one of the highest of the week so far and up from where it opened at 49.5.

Raiders vs. Rams

The Rams are up to -7 in this home matchup against the Raiders, a massive swing from the opening line of -3.5.

This line first shot up to -7 on Tuesday following the news that the Raiders would be sending star receiver Davante Adams to the Jets. However, Adams has been out with injury and was not expected to play in this game anyway.

Los Angeles is drawing the bulk of spread bets coming off a bye week. Star receiver Cooper Kupp is expected to make his return, delivering a much-needed weapon for a Rams offense that has also been without Puka Nacua for much of the season.

The Raiders are coming off a 32-13 loss to the Steelers in Week 6. Their offense has not looked much better after benching Gardner Minshew in favor of Aidan O’Connell, who is winless and 37-of-60 for 160 passing yards per game in his two starts.

The total is down to 43.5 from where it opened at 44.

Chiefs vs. 49ers

The 49ers are -1.5 on the road against the Chiefs, back where this line opened after falling to -1 earlier in the week.

The Chiefs remain unbeaten, coming off a bye and a 26-13 victory against the Saints in Week 5 before that. Patrick Mahomes is the current MVP favorite (+360) at DraftKings despite putting together one of the worst statistical seasons of his career. However, with Travis Kelce also on track for his worst season, and after losing Rashee Rice and Isiah Pacheco to injury, Mahomes has been the driving force behind Kansas City’s flawless start.

“It’s rare that the Chiefs are getting points, but with Rice and Pacheco out, they’re going against one of the perceived top teams of the NFC going into the season. The 49ers are getting a little bit of play, I don’t see them running away with the money,” Avello said.

Mahomes is 11-1-1 ATS as an underdog for his career.

The 49ers will be playing on extra rest after taking down the Seahawks 36-24 in Week 6. Brock Purdy finished 18-of-28 for 255 yards and three touchdowns, while Deebo Samuel returned from injury and tallied 102 receiving yards and a touchdown. They will again be without star running back Christian McCaffrey, according to multiple reports. His backup, Jordan Mason, left the game against the Seahawks early with a leg injury, and his status is questionable for this game.

The total is up to 47.5, a point from where it opened at 46.5.

Sunday Night Football analysis

Jets vs. Steelers

The Jets are up to -2 on the road against the Steelers from where this opened at Jets -1. That movement came following the Adams trade.

“People are probably betting this because of the Adams trade? But I don’t know. Rodgers can’t move, and the Steelers have a good, quick defense. I can’t explain this one,” Avello said.

The defense carried the Steelers to another win in Week 6 when they toppled the Raiders 32-13. Justin Fields finished 14-of-24 for 145 yards, his second game in a row below 150 passing yards and a 60% completion rate. Pittsburgh is reportedly considering a change at quarterback with Russell Wilson back from injury. However, head coach Mike Tomlin had yet to name a starter as of Thursday evening.

The Jets, meanwhile, suffered a 23-20 loss to the Bills on Monday night, their first game after firing Robert Saleh. Aaron Rodgers finished 23-of-35 for 294 passing yards, two touchdowns, and an interception. New York acquired Adams on Tuesday afternoon. He has been dealing with a hamstring injury, however, and his status for Week 7 is unclear.

The total is up to 39 after opening at 37.5.

Monday Night Football analysis

Ravens vs. Buccaneers

The Ravens are down to -3.5 on the road against the Buccaneers after opening at -4.5.

That shift comes as Tampa Bay is seeing more action at most sportsbooks, though oddsmakers at Caesars and DraftKings anticipate that this will change before kickoff.

The Ravens are coming off a 30-23 win against the Commanders in Week 6, in which they held the league’s No. 1 offense going into the week to its second-fewest points in a game this season. Derek Henry is looking for his fourth consecutive 100+ yard rushing game against a Tampa Bay defense giving up the eighth most yards per rush this year. He’s gone over his rushing yards prop in each of his last five games.

The Buccaneers, meanwhile, are coming off a 51-27 victory against the Saints in Week 6 in which Baker Mayfield finished 24-of-36 for 325 yards and four touchdowns but also threw three interceptions. It is rare that a team puts up 50 points on the road and then closes as an underdog at home the next week.

The total is down to 49.5 after opening at 50.5.

Chargers vs. Cardinals

The Chargers opened as -2.5 road favorites against the Cardinals. As of Thursday evening, that was unchanged at most sportsbooks, though some are betting Chargers -2.

Los Angeles is drawing the majority of spread bets at DraftKings, as it has in most games this season, according to Avello.

The Chargers are coming off a 23-16 victory against the Broncos in Week 6. Justin Herbert finished 21-of-34 for 237 passing yards and a touchdown, his best game statistically of the year — against one of the league’s top defenses, no less.

The Cardinals, meanwhile, suffered their fourth defeat of the season in Week 6, a 34-13 loss to the Packers. Kyler Murray finished 22-of-32 for 214 yards and a touchdown, while star receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. exited the game early with an injury. His status for this game is unclear, and that could have a big impact on where this line moves, depending on how it develops closer to game time.

The total is up to 44 after opening at 43.

Photo by Associated Press/Darron Cummings