Trump Media is scrapping plans to launch a prediction market on Truth Social, opting instead for a marketing deal that will direct users of President Donald Trump’s social media platform to Crypto.com’s exchange.
The change shelves Truth Predict, which Trump Media announced last October with plans to offer contracts on sports, elections, economic indicators and other events directly through Truth Social.
Instead of integrating trading into the platform, Trump Media will pursue a marketing agreement promoting Crypto.com’s existing prediction market services to Truth Social users, company officials said during the company’s quarterly earnings call Monday.
“We wanted to get focused, and the prediction markets business is already a pretty crowded space with established companies,” interim CEO Kevin McGurn said.
Trump Media pivots on predictions
Trump Media had planned to launch Truth Predict through an exclusive arrangement with Crypto.com’s CFTC-registered exchange and clearinghouse.
The companies said at the time that beta testing would begin in the near future before a nationwide rollout. Then-CEO Devin Nunes said the product would turn “free speech into actionable foresight,” while Crypto.com CEO Kris Marszalek touted it as the first prediction market integrated into a social media platform.
The shift comes after Trump Media reported a $238 million second-quarter loss, driven largely by losses tied to cryptocurrency assets. Executives told investors the company is making a “disciplined choice” to concentrate resources on Truth Social and its broader media business.
In addition to promoting Crypto.com products, Trump Media is exploring data licensing opportunities with prediction market operators and already generates a “modest amount” of revenue from such agreements, McGurn said.
Prediction markets boom under Trump
The pivot comes as prediction markets have exploded in popularity, driven largely by sports. Kalshi has taken more than $154 billion in trading volume so far this year, roughly 85% of it on sports event contract, according to Ticker-Tracker. It became one of the first major prediction market platforms to offer them in 2024, shortly after Trump took office.
Sports event contracts have since drawn lawsuits from a growing number of states alleging they are unlicensed sports betting. The CFTC, led by Chairman Michael Selig, has aggressively defended the federal government’s jurisdiction over those markets, while sportsbooks including DraftKings, FanDuel and Fanatics have launched their own prediction markets in states without legal sports betting.
Trump’s ties to the industry have also drawn scrutiny from lawmakers as prediction markets become a bigger issue in Washington. His son, Donald Trump Jr., is a strategic adviser and investor in Kalshi and a paid adviser to Polymarket.
