The predictions market is getting a competitor likely not seen in many crystal balls: the president of the United States and his Truth Social platform.
On Tuesday, Trump Media announced it will make prediction markets available on Truth Social through “an exclusive arrangement with Crypto.com Derivatives North America (CDNA), a [Commodity Futures Trading Commission]-registered exchange and clearinghouse.”
Truth Predict will allow predictions on events including “political elections, interest and inflation rate changes, commodity prices on gold and crude oil, events across all major sports leagues, and more.”
Beta testing will begin in the “near future” followed by a US-wide launch. The predictions will be available worldwide after meeting all the necessary requirements.
What stakeholders are saying
Trump Media CEO Devin Nunes said Truth Predict will turn “free speech into actionable foresight.”
“Truth Predict will allow our loyal users to engage in prediction markets with a trusted network while harnessing our social media platform to provide totally unique ways for users to discuss and compare their predictions,” Nunes said. “… For too long, global elites have closely controlled these markets – with Truth Predict, we’re democratizing information and empowering everyday Americans to harness the wisdom of the crowd, turning free speech into actionable foresight.”
The partnership with Trump Media aligns “perfectly” with what people want from social media, Crypto.com CEO Kris Marszalek said.
“Crypto.com has quickly become one of the most trusted providers of prediction market services, and we’re thrilled to combine with Truth Social to support the world’s first prediction markets available from a social media platform,” Marszalek said. “This aligns perfectly with what users look for in social media – a community to engage with and seek truth.
“Truth Predict will provide customers with a powerful tool related to market sentiment on an unlimited number of events. We are thrilled to integrate Truth Social’s truly pioneering social media platform and technology with our industry-leading technology and regulated prediction market trading.”
Will this change any predictions plans?
The announcement could change what operators like DraftKings and FanDuel parent Flutter are ready to say about entering the predictions business when they hold their third quarter calls in November.
Sports betting operators continue to face scrutiny from state gambling regulators as more join in to warn their licensees about potential license implications should they offer sports predictions in any US jurisdiction.
There could be a compromise coming, Jeffrey Stantial of Stifel suggested, given DraftKings’ recent investment into Railbird.
Stantial said those licensees may be restricted to only offering sports predictions in states without legal online sports betting and sees “potential for greater clarity on expansion into sports late-25/early-26.”
Trump has CFTC influence
Trump has been connected to prediction markets since he took office in January, right around the time that sports predictions began to take off.
His son, Donald Trump Jr., is an advisor for both Kalshi and Polymarket. He also invested in Polymarket before its return to the US after the company had previously been banned from operating in the country.
Trump also dictates who runs the CFTC. He originally picked Brian Quintenz, a member of Kalshi’s board, though that was seemingly derailed after a Freedom of Information Act request by The Closing Line brought emails to light that called into question his involvement while still with Kalshi.
Trump then nominated Mike Selig after withdrawing the nomination for Quintenz. Selig is the chief counsel for the SEC’s crypto task force.
