Stifel’s Jeffrey Stantial is the latest analyst to lower his targets on DraftKings and FanDuel parent Flutter before they announce third quarter earnings.
Stantial dropped DraftKings to $50 from $51, while Flutter fell to $339 from $356 based on lower EBITDA expectations from unfavorable NFL betting outcomes in September.
He maintained buy ratings on both, however, as sports betting handle growth in existing states “re-accelerates” in the early part of the NFL season with around 30% continued online casino growth.
DraftKings reports its earnings Nov. 6 and will hold its call the morning of Nov. 7. FanDuel‘s parent reports the following week after the market closes on Nov. 12.
DraftKings estimate swings to loss
Stantial now expects DraftKings to report an adjusted EBITDA loss of $90.8 million for the third quarter, with those NFL results causing a $124 million drag. His now estimates $721.3 million in adjusted EBITDA for 2025, down 15% from his previous forecast.
He estimates $22 million in third quarter EBITDA for Flutter US, with a $106 million impact from NFL. Flutter’s international business could also see a drag from worse hold, but should still report positive EBTIDA around $376 million, according to Stantial.
He estimates Flutter will report $3.137 billion in adjusted EBITDA for 2025, down 4.9% from his previous estimate. Stantial also lowered his 2026 outlook by 6.9% to $4.275 billion, given the likelihood of upcoming tax increases in the United Kingdom.
This will mark eight out of the last nine quarters of unfavorable hold, which has renewed concerns about “pricing/trading and speculation around downside risk to structural hold guidances,” Stantial said.
Prediction compromise coming?
DraftKings and Flutter have both made acquisitions to enter prediction markets, though Stantial does not expect them to share much during their investor calls.
“We expect few incremental updates on Q3 calls given ongoing sensitive stakeholder discussions, though see potential for greater clarity on expansion into sports late-25/early-26,” Stantial said.
DraftKings committing up to $250 million in its Railbird acquisition points to “some optimism a compromise can be reached” with respect to gambling regulators threatening sports betting licenses should those licensees launch sports predictions markets, he said.
That compromise would likely be restricting sports predictions to states without legal online sports betting, Stantial added.
