Genius Sports launched Prediction.com Thursday, giving the sports data giant a direct consumer foothold in prediction markets after striking deals with Kalshi and Polymarket.
Prediction.com, launched through Genius-owned Legend, allows users to compare equivalent event contracts and prices across prediction markets. It also includes a proprietary tool for comparing multi-leg combinations across platforms and combines live sports data with real-time market prices, according to the press release.
The launch extends Genius Sports further into an industry it already supplies with official data, settlement, marketing and integrity services.
Genius Sports expands predictions strategy
Prediction markets have surged into the sports betting mainstream, with trading volume across eight major platforms topping $3 billion on the first NFL Sunday and operators like DraftKings, FanDuel, Fanatics and Underdog launching their own products. Investors remain largely split on what prediction markets mean for sportsbooks, while suppliers such as Genius stand to benefit from the additional wagering activity.
Prediction markets have also created another growth opportunity for Legend, the digital sports and gaming media company Genius acquired for up to $1.2 billion in May.
Citizens recently pointed to prediction markets as an opportunity to generate additional revenue and free cash flow from the Legend acquisition. Genius has already cited prediction markets and early Legend synergies in raising its full-year outlook following second-quarter results in August.
That growth is unfolding amid an escalating legal fight over whether sports event contracts fall exclusively under federal regulation or can be treated as gambling by states, with federal appeals courts now split on the issue.
CEO expects market to change
The launch comes days after Genius CEO Mark Locke outlined a strategy designed to benefit regardless of how the legal fight over sports event contracts plays out.
Locke said he expects prediction markets to remain a meaningful part of U.S. sports betting but does not expect the industry’s current structure to survive unchanged. Genius supplies services to DraftKings, FanDuel, Kalshi and Polymarket, as well as market makers operating on exchanges.
Under its current commercial arrangements, Genius believes the economics from a comparable dollar of prediction market activity can match or exceed what it generates through sportsbooks.
“If prediction-market customers do not stick, the activity returns to the sportsbooks we already supply,” Locke wrote. “If customers do stick, Genius can continue to benefit.”
