Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa began the NFL regular season with a bang on Sunday, and it had an immediate effect on his MVP odds. Tagovailoa’s Week 1 performance saw him throw for 466 yards and three TDs with one interception in Miami’s 36-34 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers. That was enough to take him from the outer edge of the top 10 in NFL MVP odds to tied for the top spot at some of the top betting sites.
Below, we’ll look at Tagovailoa’s latest MVP odds and analyze what historical trends have to say about whether this early line movement will hold up through the season.
Tua Tagovailoa’s MVP odds shift
The striking thing about Tagovailoa’s MVP odds movement is how suddenly it happened. Before the start of the season, the Dolphins QB was tied for ninth on the top 10 list of MVP betting favorites. After one big game in the win over the Chargers, his odds at at least one sportsbook went from +2000 to win the NFL MVP award to +600. That would put him tied with two-time winner Patrick Mahomes, who was last season’s MVP. Other sportsbooks have Tagovailoa behind Mahomes, but not by much.
| Player | Current odds | July 10 odds | Opening odds |
| Patrick Mahomes | +700 (DK) | +650 | |
| Tua Tagovailoa | +2000 (Bet365) | +1500 | |
| Joe Burrow | +750 (DK) | +650 | |
| Jalen Hurts | +1200 (FD) | +1300 | |
| Josh Allen | +800 (DK) | +800 |
Other Tua Tagovailoa futures odds
- To win NFL offensive player of the year:
- To win comeback player of the year:
- To finish with the most passing yards:
- To finish with the most passing TDs:
- To win Super Bowl MVP:
Recent NFL MVP winners
One thing working in Tagovailoa’s favor is that, in the modern age, the league MVP is overwhelmingly likely to be a quarterback. It’s been just over a decade since a player at any other position won the award. That was RB Adrian Peterson in 2012. The last 10 NFL MVPs have all been QBs, like Tagovailoa.
But team success and not just individual achievement also seems to play a role in winning the award. All of those 10 QBs led teams that at least made the playoffs. Of those teams, half made it all the way to the Super Bowl, three lost in the conference championship game, and two were eliminated in the divisional round.
The Dolphins made the playoffs last season for the first time since 2016 and lost in the wild card round. Tagovailoa missed several games during the 2022-23 season, including the team’s lone playoff game, due to ongoing concussion issues.
| Year | Position/Player | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | QB Lamar Jackson | Baltimore Ravens |
| 2022 | QB Patrick Mahomes | Kansas City Chiefs |
| 2021 | QB Aaron Rodgers | Green Bay Packers |
| 2020 | QB Aaron Rodgers | Green Bay Packers |
| 2019 | QB Lamar Jackson | Baltimore Ravens |
| 2018 | QB Patrick Mahomes | Kansas City Chiefs |
| 2017 | QB Tom Brady | New England Patriots |
| 2016 | QB Matt Ryan | Atlanta Falcons |
| 2015 | QB Cam Newton | Carolina Panthers |
| 2014 | QB Aaron Rodgers | Green Bay Packers |
| 2013 | QB Peyton Manning | Denver Broncos |
Upcoming Miami Dolphins games
The Dolphins are favorites on the road against the New England Patriots on Sunday Night Football this week. Miami finishes out the first month of the regular season playing at home against the Denver Broncos, then begins October against the defending AFC East champ Buffalo Bills. Here’s the full 2023-24 Dolphins schedule for the regular season.
