The Atlanta Falcons will host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday Night Football this week as the two NFC South squads face off early in the season looking to gain a foothold in the race for the playoffs.
The Falcons are 2.5-point favorites in Week 5 NFL odds and are looking to win their second straight game after defeating the New Orleans Saints in Week 4. However, the Buccaneers have been one of the top teams in the NFL so far this season and can score points in bunches, as suggested by the over/under line.
Falcons slight favorites over Buccaneers in key divisional matchup
How the Falcons could win and cover the spread
The Falcons’ offense should be the standout unit on this team, but so far it’s averaging just 309.8 yards of offense per game, 20th in the NFL, as well as just 18.8 points per game. The Falcons aren’t short of offensive talent, either, with Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and Darnell Mooney all catching passes from Kirk Cousins.
Getting them involved early and often will likely be key to the Falcons’ Thursday Night Football odds. London was targeted 12 times against the Saints and is inarguably their best pass-catcher, and he’ll likely be matched up against the Bucs’ best corner, Zyon McCollum.
Offensive coordinator Zac Robinson has dialed up 28 targets for London over the last three games, after just three in the team’s opening game of the season, and the offense has benefitted, racking up over 200 passing yards in all three games. The Atlanta Falcons will need to be at their best to beat the Buccaneers, and it starts with London.
How the Tampa Bay Buccaneers could cover the spread and win
The Buccaneers’ hot start to the season has pushed them to the top of the NFC South, and they crushed the Eagles in Week 4 to improve to 3-1. The offense has been dialed in all season and is ninth in expected points added per play, per RBSDM, and Baker Mayfield has been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL through four weeks. However, the Buccaneers may have to lean on their ground game to target the Falcons’ weakness.
The Atlanta defense is allowing 145.5 rushing yards per game in 2024, eighth most in the NFL through four games, and has allowed over 100 rushing yards in each of its games so far this season. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers haven’t rushed the ball all that effectively, but it looks as though they may have something with rookie running back Bucky Irving, who has carried the ball 35 times for 203 yards and a touchdown through four games. If the Bucs can make a mark on the ground and target the Falcons’ run defense, that may also open up the passing game. The cliche is true. Marry the passing game and running game for success.
Sportsbook promo for Buccaneers-Falcons
Below is a sportsbook promotion from bet365 Sportsbook for the Falcons-Bucs matchup.