If you’ve made it to Week 4 in your NFL survivor pool, you can count yourself as more fortunate than many contestants.
It was another wild week of NFL action, with a number of heavy moneyline favorites going down to defeat. Survivor pool fields have been whittled down even further as a result.
For those who are alive for NFL Week 4 games — or taking your chances in second-chance survivor pools — there are a number of reasonable options to consider for this week’s picks.
NFL Week 4 moneyline odds
The table below has the latest moneyline odds for Week 4 games at top football betting sites.
NFL survivor Week 4: Implied win probabilities
The implied win probabilities for the favorites in this week’s games based on the current moneyline odds are in the table below. Typically, the top favorites are popular picks in weekly NFL survivor pools.
| Game | Favorite | Moneyline Odds | Implied Probability |
| Patriots at 49ers | 49ers | -520 | 83.87% |
| Chiefs at Chargers | Chiefs | -375 | 78.95% |
| Broncos at Jets | Jets | -335 | 77.01% |
| Jaguars at Texans | Texans | -250 | 71.43% |
| Cowboys at Giants | Cowboys | -205 | 67.21% |
| Bengals at Panthers | Bengals | -205 | 67.21% |
| Seahawks at Lions | Lions | -192 | 65.75% |
| Commanders at Cardinals | Cardinals | -180 | 64.29% |
| Rams at Bears | Bears | -155 | 60.78% |
| Vikings at Packers | Packers | -135 | 57.45% |
| Eagles at Buccaneers | Eagles | -135 | 57.45% |
| Bills at Ravens | Ravens | -130 | 56.52% |
| Steelers at Colts | Steelers | -125 | 55.56% |
| Saints at Falcons | Falcons | -120 | 54.55% |
| Titans at Dolphins | Titans | -110 | 52.38% |
| Browns at Raiders | Browns | -105 | 51.22% |
NFL survivor pool chaos following wild Week 3
Through three weeks of regular season action, a recurring theme has developed. Several heavy moneyline favorites have proved to be poor choices for NFL survivor pool contestants.
If we flash back to Week 1, the Patriots stunned the Bengals at home. The following week, the Ravens failed to hang onto a commanding late lead over the visiting Raiders.
Those two upsets alone eliminated 60.8% of the entrants in the Circa Sportsbook survivor pool. Even more havoc was unleashed over the weekend.
The top four choices at Circa for Week 3 were the Bengals, Browns, Buccaneers, and Raiders. All four of those teams went on to lose their games.
Circa’s survivor pool kicked off with 14,266 entries. After three weeks of play, just 642 entrants remain alive heading into Week 4.
Biggest moneyline favorites for NFL Week 4 games
For this week’s NFL odds, there are four moneyline favorites at -250 or greater, translating into implied win probabilities of over 70%: the 49ers, Chiefs, Jets, and Texans.
The 49ers remain second on the board in 2025 Super Bowl odds. However, the team finds itself in the unexpected position of looking to snap a two-game skid when the 1-2 Patriots come to town.
The Chiefs are undefeated as their quest for a three-peat continues. They’ll hit the road this week to face the 2-1 Chargers, who are looking to rebound from a tough loss to the Steelers.
The Jets moved to 2-1 with a convincing win over the Dolphins on Thursday night. They’ll try to keep their momentum rolling against the 1-2 Broncos, a team that’s fresh off a road upset over the Buccaneers.
The Texans were clobbered by the Vikings on Sunday to drop to 2-1. They’ll attempt to rebound when the 0-3 Jaguars, 47-10 losers to the Bills on Monday night, come to town.
The rest of this week’s slate
Of the remaining 12 games, just five of the moneyline favorites have an implied win probability of over 60%.
The Cowboys, Cardinals, and Bears are all 1-2. Dallas and Chicago are looking to snap two-game skids, while Arizona is trying to rebound from a loss to the Lions.
Detroit is 2-1 following that victory. It is now a home favorite versus the 3-0 Seahawks as part of next week’s Monday Night Football doubleheader.
Lastly, the 0-3 Bengals hit the road to face the 1-2 Panthers. Carolina switched gears at QB from Bryce Young to Andy Dalton last week and proceeded to pull out an upset over the Raiders.
A sneak peek at NFL Week 5 lines
Early betting lines are available for Week 5 games. Based on the current point spreads, there appear to be three sizable favorites:
- Panthers at Bears (-5.5)
- Cardinals at 49ers (-9.5)
- Saints at Chiefs (-8)
The 49ers and Chiefs have the highest implied win probabilities this week and could be popular picks as a result. Meanwhile, the Bears are more modest favorites over the visiting Rams.
This week’s other heavy favorites, the Jets and Texans, could face tougher tests next time around. New York is off to London to take on the Vikings, while Houston will welcome the Bills.
