The Dallas Cowboys will take on the New York Giants Thursday as two 1-2 teams in the NFC East face off in a Week 4 divisional matchup.
The Cowboys are 4.5-point road favorites in NFL Week 4 odds against a struggling Giants team, and Dallas will be looking to extend its six-game winning streak against New York and rebound from a humbling two weeks.
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Today’s Boosts & Promos
Dallas Cowboys favored over the New York Giants in crucial early matchup
How the Dallas Cowboys could win and cover the spread
The Cowboys’ fourth-quarter comeback against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 3 was inspired, but ultimately in vain. The defense has struggled to slow teams down and the Cowboys are allowing the fifth-most yards per game and the third-most points per game. That’s an obvious worry, but it’s the team’s run defense that has really caused concern.
Through three games, the Dallas Cowboys are allowing 185.7 rushing yards per game this season, with the Ravens racking up 274 rushing yards in Week 3. Per PFF, the Cowboys’ defense has an average depth of tackle of 5.41 yards, meaning opposing ball carriers are getting over 5 yards per carry before they’re wrapped up. They’ve also missed the fourth-most tackles in the NFL through three games (19).
The Giants’ offense is averaging 105 rushing yards per game this season, including an average of 120.5 yards on the ground in its last two games. They’ll likely target a defense that has proven to be soft up the middle. It’s a real weakness, but if Dallas addresses it, we could see the Cowboys stall opposing drives and thwart the Giants’ offense.
How the New York Giants could cover the spread, potentially win
The New York Giants’ offense is currently 24th in expected points added per play, per PFF, and scoring just 15 points per game, the fourth-lowest in the NFL this season. The offense looked better and competent against the Cleveland Browns in Week 3, scoring 21 points and accumulating 340 total yards of offense — its highest totals of the season so far. That’ll have to continue against a weakened and vulnerable Cowboys defense.
The offense looked at its best when targeting rookie receiver Malik Nabers. The No. 6 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft caught eight of 12 targets for 78 yards and two touchdowns, and Nabers has the most targets and second-most catches in the NFL through three weeks, earning a PFF receiving grade of 81.2 — ninth among all receivers. Daniel Jones also has a 114.5 passer rating when targeting Nabers, an indicator of how good the connection between the two can be.
