The Baltimore Ravens will host the Buffalo Bills on Sunday Night Football as two of the top teams in the AFC face off early in the season.
The Ravens are slight 2.5-point favorites at home against the 3-0 Bills in Week 4 odds and are looking to win their second game and set their season right. However, the Bills are running rampant over the NFL, and the over/under line suggests that sportsbooks anticipate some offense. We also cover a NY sportsbook promo, and MD sportsbook promo below.
Ravens slight favorites versus Bills in key early matchup
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How the Baltimore Ravens could win and cover the spread
The Ravens’ offense has been on a tear through the first three weeks of the season, averaging 430.3 yards per game, the most in the NFL, and 23.7 points per game. Predictably, the Ravens’ rushing attack has been among the best in the NFL, too, averaging the second-most rushing yards per game (203.3) and leading the NFL in expected points added per rush, per RBSDM.
The duo of Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry is combining for close to 180 rushing yards per game and is the center of everything good within the Baltimore Ravens offense. The two will likely attack a Bills defense that has been good against the pass but has been less efficient against the run.
Some of that has been due to game script — the Bills have scored more points than anyone and have generally been leading games from start to finish, but their expected points added per rush play on defense is 27th in the NFL. The Ravens’ rushing attack potentially has a big part to play in Week 4 and could be the key to taking down the undefeated Bills.
How the Buffalo Bills could cover the spread and win
Sometimes, all you need to do is have the best player on the field in an NFL game. So far this season, the Buffalo Bills have had that. Quarterback Josh Allen has been, arguably, the best player in the NFL through the first three weeks of the season, completing 75% of his pass attempts for 634 yards and seven touchdowns without throwing an interception. Allen leads all quarterbacks in expected points added, per RBSDM, too.
Allen has been linking well with his receivers and, as always, adds the threat of rushing on the ground.
There aren’t many better dual-threat quarterbacks in the NFL. It’s simple, but it is how the Bills can win this game: lean into your quarterback’s strengths and let Allen be Allen. The offense has married the rushing game, headed by James Cook, well with the passing game. And that’s yielded positive results. The Bills look like the best team in the NFL right now.
