FanDuel and DraftKings are on the verge of offering Super Bowl parlays in states where traditional sports betting is illegal through their prediction market platforms.
Their exchange partner, CME Group, filed Tuesday to list multi-leg “Pro Football Championship Combo” contracts with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
The filing uses the CFTC’s self-certification process, which lets exchanges list new contracts unless the agency steps in, a framework the NCAA and NBA have warned bypasses the state-by-state approvals required of traditional sportsbooks. Because financial exchange products fall under federal derivatives law rather than state gaming law, they can appear in places where sports betting is illegal, a distinction several states are fighting in court.
DraftKings Predicts offers prediction markets in 38 states with sports contracts in 17 states of those. FanDuel’s prediction app is nationwide for non-sports markets, but sports contracts are live in 18 states, including some where it does not operate a licensed sportsbook.
Super Bowl parlays as combos
CME’s example contract bundles three outcomes into one trade:
- a team to win
- a specific player to score a touchdown
- the game total finishing over or under a set number
The product, dubbed a “combo,” is essentially a three-leg sportsbook parlay.
Fixed combinations likely first
It is unclear whether users will be able to build their own custom parlays.
Open-ended bet builders require constant pricing for every possible leg combination, which is difficult to support on an exchange without dedicated liquidity providers. Market leader Kalshi solves this with a request-for-quotes system used by large trading firms, a structure CME has not detailed for its football combos.
That makes an initial rollout of pre-built combinations more likely than fully customizable parlays.
Super Bowl timing
The Super Bowl, set for Feb. 8, is the biggest betting event of the year and increasingly driven by parlays and player props. A parlay-style prediction market product would let FanDuel and DraftKings reach casual bettors in states without sportsbooks using products that mimic their most popular, highest-margin bet type.
Citizens JMP estimates player prop bets account for 50% to 60% of all Super Bowl wagers by ticket count, often serving as the building blocks for the multi-leg bets that drive sportsbook profits. Those prop and parlay results were a key reason sportsbooks posted strong outcomes last year even as the public won on major sides. LSR projects parlays account for at least 25% of total Super Bowl handle, or dollars wagered.
Prediction markets began gaining mainstream traction around last year’s Super Bowl, when Kalshi partnered with Robinhood to distribute sports event contracts. Since then, sports trading has dominated roughly 90% Kalshi’s trading volume, prompting major sports betting brands to launch competing prediction platforms at the end of the year.
FanDuel is expected to continue working with CME Group through a joint venture with parent company Flutter Entertainment. DraftKings, which owns its own federally regulated exchange through Railbird, has said it eventually plans to move prediction trading onto that in-house platform.
Analyst: sports betting now nationwide
Needham Analyst Bernie McTernan told CNBC Friday that everyone sports predictions mean citizens in every state have a way to get down on sports.
“Sports betting or investing in sports is legal nationwide now and so ultimately what we think is going to happen is its no longer up to state legislators if they want to decide if their constituents can bet on sports or not. They already can.
“Now it’s about do they want tax revenue or not. So we think this is going to be a catalyst for more states to legalize sports in order to get the tax revenue from it.”
