California tribal leaders remain focused on putting an online sports betting measure before voters in 2028, amid the rise of prediction markets.
Speaking Wednesday on the New Normal podcast hosted by Indian Gaming Association Conference Chair Victor Rocha and Executive Director Jason Giles, California Nations Indian Gaming Association Chair James Siva said tribes continue to view 2028 as the target for a CA sports betting ballot initiative.
The timeline would come six years after California voters overwhelmingly rejected competing sports betting initiatives in 2022. Tribal governments backed Proposition 26 to legalize retail sports betting at tribal casinos and horse racetracks, while commercial sportsbook operators including DraftKings and FanDuel supported Proposition 27, which would have authorized statewide online wagering.
California remains the nation’s largest state without legal sports betting, making any future ballot measure one of the industry’s most closely watched expansion opportunities.
California sports betting poll
Siva said California tribes have continued polling voters since the 2022 election, including research conducted in June, as they refine plans for a future ballot campaign.
“We’re trying to do something that’s data driven,” Siva said. “Prop 27 had 83% no. But in a lot of ways tribes take pride in that number. We’re the ones who opposed that corporate bill. We had to sacrifice our tribal bill to make sure the corporate bill went down.”
Siva said tribes plan to center their longstanding record operating gaming facilities in California in any future campaign.
“We’ve built up a huge amount of positive feelings for tribal gaming,” Siva said. “We keep our promises, do the right thing, and offer safe and regulated gaming.”
Prediction markets reshape the debate
Siva said the rise of federally regulated prediction markets has altered both public perception and the tribes’ messaging ahead of a potential 2028 vote.
According to polling cited by Siva, roughly 60% of Californians now believe online sports betting is already legal in the state, up from roughly the 20% range just a few years ago.
“That’s how much of an effect they’ve had on the mindset of Californians,” Siva said.
Siva said tribes plan to contrast a tribal-regulated sports betting market with prediction markets, pointing to consumer protections, age restrictions and economic benefits for California.
“With prediction markets, you have nothing,” Siva said. “You don’t know who’s operating or where the money is going.”
Undercutting prediction markets
Siva also suggested legal online sports betting in California could reduce prediction market activity in the state, noting California and Texas account for roughly 60% of Kalshi’s users, according to figures he cited.
“If we go to online sports betting in California, we can start cutting their legs out from under them, because everyone would rather play in a regulated OSB market than on a prediction market,” Siva said.
Siva said reducing prediction market revenue would complement the tribes’ ongoing legal and political efforts challenging sports event contracts.
“That’s why 2028 is so important,” Siva said. “The sooner we get there, the sooner we start hitting them.”
