Polymarket US could be the second federally regulated operator to offer sports predictions to all 50 states by next week.
Self-certifications for moneylines, spreads and totals were posted Monday by QCX, the exchange Polymarket bought in July to return to the US. The self-certifications were first reported by The Closing Line.
The documents for the three sports categories and election markets originally said they would be offered no earlier than Oct. 7, but the documents were updated to read Oct. 2. That could set Polymarket US on track to compete for sports betting dollars in Week 5 of the NFL season.
It is still not known when Polymarket US will launch.
Polymarket playing catchup already?
Polymarket US will join Kalshi as a betting alternative in all 50 states, though it could be playing catchup.
Kalshi launched the ability to offer same-game parlays for the NFL’s Monday Night Football doubleheader this week. Multiple sports betting stocks, including FanDuel parent Flutter as well as DraftKings, took a hit Tuesday since predictions had been considered a less-desirable product without parlays.
A “formidable” parlay product would directly compete with the approximately 60% of gross gaming revenue online sportsbooks see from parlays, Steven Pizzella of Deutsche Bank said. Kalshi self-certified prebuilt parlays right before the NFL season began.
Volume on the market was low in its debut with $256,000 across both games.
Kalshi keeps topping volume records
Volume continues to pour in on sports contracts at Kalshi, though that is not a direct comparison to handle for sportsbooks. Every time a contract is traded, whether that means entering or exiting a position, the event’s volume increases.
“Kalshi’s volumes are slippery things – they sound big, but they aren’t, but they might be,” read a note from Regulus Partners.
Regulus estimates Kalshi’s volume is a little better than 10% of online betting volume when compared to the between $3 billion and $4 billion in weekly handle at regulated US sportsbooks.
“In other words, while Kalshi is nowhere near as big as FanDuel or DraftKings, it is already a strong tier two operator, albeit with the benefit of all 50 states rather than just some of a possible 30,” the note reads.
