Americans are expected to wager more than $3.3 billion on March Madness through state-regulated sportsbooks, according to the American Gaming Association.
The projection represents roughly a 6% increase from last year’s men’s and women’s NCAA basketball tournaments, suggesting March Madness betting may be moderating after years of rapid expansion.
Betting on the NCAA tournaments through licensed sportsbooks has grown roughly 54% over the past three years, according to data compiled by the AGA from state gaming regulators.
A smaller increase this year would align with broader recent trends across the industry, where handle from December to January declined 3.4% year-over-year in existing markets vs. increasing 8.7% during the same period a year earlier, according to LSR analysis.
March Madness still most-bet event
While the Super Bowl remains the largest single betting event in the U.S., the NCAA tournament typically generates more total wagering because of its multi-week format and dozens of games. The projected $3.3 billion wagered on March Madness would be nearly double the amount bet on this year’s Super Bowl.
“Fans continue to engage with legal, state- and tribal-regulated sports betting in record numbers during one of the biggest moments on the sports calendar,” AGA president and CEO Bill Miller said in a statement.
The estimate reflects wagers placed through licensed sportsbooks operating across 40 states and Washington, D.C. that currently offer legal betting markets. It does not include activity on prediction market exchanges or money risked through informal office bracket pools.
Prediction markets add wrinkle
When activity on prediction markets is included, the overall amount associated with March Madness wagering could be significantly higher.
Research firm H2 Gambling Capital estimates the tournament could generate north of $530 million in prediction-market trading volume.
One of the largest platforms in that space, Kalshi, reported about $409.4 million in trading tied to the men’s tournament and $91.8 million tied to the women’s tournament last year.
However, those figures are not directly comparable to sportsbook betting totals. Trading volume counts both sides of a contract while sportsbooks report handle, which reflects only the amount wagered by bettors. For example, a user buying a contract priced at 10 cents would count as $1 of trading volume on a prediction market, while a $10 wager at a sportsbook would count as $10 of handle.
As of Monday morning, Kalshi reported more than $60 million in trading volume on its market for the men’s NCAA tournament champion, approaching last year’s final total of $75.4 million for that market.
Could another chalky tournament drag hold?
At Caesars Sportsbook, Duke (+295) opened as the favorite to win the men’s tournament, followed by Michigan (+350), Arizona (+425), and Florida (+650). On the women’s side, defending champion UConn (-280) entered as a heavy favorite, ahead of UCLA (+500) and Texas (+700).
“We’re expecting a fairly chalky tournament this year, similar to what we saw last season,” said Patrick Berbert, a college basketball trader at Caesars. “The NIL era has really widened the gap between the top programs and the rest of the field.”
Last year’s tournament produced one of the most favorite-heavy brackets in history, with all four No. 1 seeds reaching the Final Four. That outcome contributed to lower sportsbook margins as multi-leg parlays tied to favorites continued to cash.
H2 Gambling Capital estimates sportsbooks could hold about 7% of wagers during this year’s tournament, up from roughly 6.1% last year. Because March Madness betting often involves multi-game parlays, sportsbook margins can swing depending on whether favorites advance or underdogs bust brackets.
Point spreads for this year’s tournament also reflect the widening gap between top seeds and lower-seeded teams. All four No. 5 seeds opened as at least eight-point favorites over No. 12 seeds, the first time that has occurred since the NCAA tournament expanded to 64 teams.
