All eyes are on sportsbooks after Super Bowl 59 as industry stakeholders and the betting public attempt to make sense of how they performed on the year’s largest single day of betting.
A 40-22 Philadelphia Eagles victory cashed public bets on the spread, moneyline and total, killing the preseason favorite Kansas City Chiefs’ quest for the first ever NFL three-peat and an NBA Hall of Famer’s chances at a hefty trademark royalty.
Reporting is still trickling in, but like last year’s Super Bowl, game results appear to be shaking out in sportsbooks’ favor despite the public coming out on top on major markets and Jalen Hurts winning the Super Bowl MVP.
One sportsbook’s biggest game ever
Super Bowl 59 was the single biggest betting event in the history of BetMGM, hardly a surprise considering legal betting has grown every year since the company was founded and has shown no signs of slowing down. The industry leader recently doubled its market cap estimate to $63 billion over the next two years.
More importantly, Super Bowl 59 was one of the best single game results BetMGM has ever had.
“Super Bowl LIX was the single biggest betting event in the history of BetMGM — it took the most bets and was one of the best single game results in company history. Super Bowl bettors cashed in on Eagles money line and Jalen Hurts Super Bowl MVP, but both defenses slowing down Saquon Barkley and Travis Kelce netted a great result for us,” said Christian Cipollini, a senior trading manager at BetMGM.
LSR projects Americans had more than $1.5 billion legally staked on the game, which would be a 15% increase from last year. GeoComply reported 14% YoY growth in active accounts during Super Bowl weekend.
Player props anchor public loss
Investment bank Citizens JMP estimates that player prop markets accounted for 50% to 60% of total wagers on the game. Just two out of the 10 most-bet player props in the four days leading up to the game cashed, the bank noted.
BetMGM’s most-bet over/under player props went one of five, while the top five anytime touchdown selections went two of five.
“With sports traders noting the outcome of the game as neutral to positive, including larger future liabilities on Kansas City, and our estimate that prop bets were a tailwind, we walk away from the most wagered-on event of the year with a constructive outlook and see 1Q25 estimates tracking ahead of expectations,” Jordan Bender, a senior equity research analyst at Citizens JMP, said in a financial note.
Barkley, Kelce underperform
At one point leading up to the game, Caesars reported more bets on Barkley to score a touchdown than on the moneyline and spread for both teams combined, per Caesars VP of trading Craig Mucklow, who added that the day would most likely be decided by Barkley’s performance.
Barkley, like Kelce, finished without a score as heavily bet overs on all of their prop markets did not hit.
Sports betting tracking app Pikkit said that player props represented 54% of the $64 million in bets logged on its app, while parlays represented nearly as much as spread and moneyline bets combined.
While those numbers are not fully representative of all legal betting, they suggest which markets likely determined the day for sportsbooks.
Wall Street bullish on CAC, awaits earnings
Another Wall Street firm, Macquarie, estimates a “below average Super Bowl hold rate” of 0% to 5% due to a game result that “represented our worst case scenario.”
Hold likely would have been much worse had sportsbooks not won so many prop bets and SGPs, the firm said, noting Barkley’s and Kelce’s performances.
Major sportsbooks and their parent companies will likely divulge more when they begin reporting earnings this week. However, Macquarie still views the day as a major positive for sportsbooks as it relates to customer acquisition thanks in part to record viewership and celebrity involvement.
FanDuel, DraftKings tout record activity
Market leaders FanDuel and DraftKings did not go as far as BetMGM to declare victory on the game outcome. They shared results more in line with the longterm positives seen by investment firms.
FanDuel reported a record 16.6 million bets, a 19% increase from last year, over nearly 3 million active users, with activity peaking at 70,000 bets per minute. For the third year in a row, the company ran a live Kick of Destiny ad during the game, which rewarded roughly 2 million participants $10 in bonus bets.
DraftKings reported over 12 million bets from 2.5 million active users, with the app peaking at 59,000 bets per minute just before kickoff.
Event trading markets report first Super Bowl numbers
Meanwhile, the event cryptocurrency trading platform Polymarket reported $1.1 billion in total volume staked on the outcome of the game, while contract trading market Kalshi reported nearly $27 million.
Those platforms, along with Crypto.com and Robinhood, had been asked to halt their sports derivatives markets while the Commodity Futures Trading Commission reviewed their legality. Robinhood suspended its partnership with Kalshi ahead of the big game, though others did not comply.
