While notably much smaller than the regular season, NFL betting is back this month for the 2024 preseason.
Jeffrey Benson, director of operations at Circa Sportsbook, echoed this when asked who is actually betting on these games.
“Main demographic and only demographic is sharps”
Jeffrey Benson – Director of Operations Circa Sportsbook
He also noted that there are “bigger edges in preseason but harder to get down same size as regular season.” So sharps are targeting these games, but are limited in what they can do with it.
Compared to the regular season, options are limited at NFL sportsbooks, and for good reason, as many stay away. Preseason results don’t matter, but that doesn’t keep avid football bettors away. Preseason also can be an opportunity for new bettors to get familiar with the hobby.
According to BetMGM Sportsbook, NFL preseason betting handle is comparable to an average MLB game this time of year. Due to the various uncertainties regarding the matchups, preseason games are unpredictable. However, some betting strategies can help you make at least a little sense of what to expect.
Popular NFL preseason betting approaches
When it’s time for NFL Week 1 games, bettors are armed with information. Details on who will be playing and the expectations for each team are readily accessible. During the preseason, it’s a vastly different story, as details can be more challenging to come by.
Some teams prioritize health and safety over winning an exhibition contest, while other squads may extend more effort. Games could end early due to bad weather — such as last week’s Hall of Fame game — or other reasons.
Betting odds and line moves
During the regular season, NFL odds move in response to betting trends, news, and other developments. This can happen during the preseason as well, but the movements may not be quite as pronounced. The spread and total may only move a few ticks, while the moneyline odds could rise or fall as playing time for starters becomes a little clearer.
By keeping an eye on the lines from the initial release until the time you are ready to place your wagers, you can gain a better sense of which side is attracting more betting handle. Additionally, line shopping can help you spot differences between sportsbooks and afford you the chance to find better profit potential for the bets that you are interested in.
Also, teams are essentially using the preseason for practice. Those new to NFL betting or in newly legal sports betting states, such as North Carolina, could take a similar approach.
Head coach records in preseason games
Heading into the 2023 NFL preseason, John Harbaugh and the Baltimore Ravens had a mind-blowing winning streak in exhibition games. The Ravens ran that streak to 24 straight with a 20-19 victory over the Philadelphia Eagles before coming up short the last two games to end the preseason with a record of 1-2.
You can also check the records of other head coaches from previous preseasons. Some coaches boast solid records in the games that don’t matter, such as the Buffalo Bills’ Sean McDermott (14-7) and Robert Saleh (7-2) of the New York Jets. Others don’t seem to put much emphasis on what happens, including the Los Angeles Rams’ Sean McVay (7-14).
Additionally, each season brings new head coaches to the sidelines, which raises more questions, such as whether they will be looking to make an impression or play it safe. For the 2023 preseason, there were five first-year head coaches. Cumulatively, they went 7-8 in the preseason and 2-3 in their exhibition openers.
Who is expected to play?
Any time NFL players step onto the field, exhibition game or not, there is the risk of injury. Injuries happen every preseason, and many teams take a cautious approach as a result. As a general rule, starters will see limited time, with some exceptions as some teams often view a game as its “dress rehearsal” for opening week.
For that contest, members of the starting units could be on the field for up to the entire first half. Beginning in 2021, the NFL reduced the preseason from four games to three. Since that happened, starters have been likelier to see the most action in the second game, with many taking a seat for the final exhibition.
Are there any notable position battles to watch out for?
When it’s clear that a position battle is underway, that could mean the players involved will see additional snaps during the exhibition season. If there’s a question about who will be the starting quarterback in Week 1, you can expect to see the players in question get at least a series under center.
For this preseason, the most hotly contested QB battle appears to be happening with the Las Vegas Raiders. Last season, Aidan O’Connell took over as the starter around the midway point. The Raiders closed the season by winning three of their final four games. During free agency, the club signed Gardner Minshew.
O’Connell and Minshew are both expected to play when the Raiders open their preseason versus the Minnesota Vikings. Beyond the quarterbacks, position battles are also playing out elsewhere. Also, players who aren’t assured of roster spots could receive extra time in preseason games to further state their case.
Press conferences and training camp buzz
The NFL news cycle never stops. It rises as we approach Week 1 and continues through to the Super Bowl. There’s also plenty of information to digest during training camp and the preseason. Items of note include standout performers, players who could be on the roster bubble, and injury-related news.
While head coaches don’t want to reveal their strategies, you may still be able to find nuggets of information by paying attention to press conference notes. For example, Raiders head coach Antonio Pierce noted earlier this week that both O’Connell and Minshew will take snaps in the first half of the preseason opener.
