When NFL MVP odds for the 2024-25 season first opened, the pecking order was clear and not terribly surprising.
Yet again, Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes was the top favorite in MVP betting at most sports betting sites. Below him were two or three familiar faces who’d also found themselves among the favorites heading into the previous season. But as rosters shifted throughout the offseason and preseason, NFL MVP betting odds saw some significant movement.
Below, we’ll take a closer look at the lines that did — and didn’t — sway in the offseason breeze ahead of Week 1 of the NFL season. Also, check out the current offer for NFL Week 1 at Caesars.
NFL MVP odds movement
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs
- Opening odds: +650
- Current odds: +500
Mahomes opened as the favorite and has stayed at the top of the odds board throughout the offseason and preseason. He had a similar trajectory last season after winning the award for a second time the previous year, but he ultimately had to settle for being the Super Bowl MVP instead. Mahomes’ MVP odds dipped as the season wore on, but with the Kansas City Chiefs expected to be a strong contender with a lot of offensive firepower this year, he’s held steady as the top favorite ever since the end of last season.
Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills
- Opening odds: +800
- Current odds: +900
For a player who’s ended up in basically the same place he started, Josh Allen has seen some interesting movement over the offseason. The Bills quarterback was a solid second place until his team traded WR Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans. Almost immediately, Allen dropped to third on the odds board, with bettors and/or oddsmakers apparently reasoning that his offensive output would suffer without the team’s top receiver. Allen’s odds have since recovered, however, even as Buffalo’s Super Bowl odds have climbed at a steady clip.
Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
- Opening odds: +650
- Current odds: +1000
Burrow opened surprisingly high on the MVP odds board initially. Coming off a season in which he struggled with injuries from the start of training camp, he still has the aura of a player who’s ready for a big year. In the relatively small window where he seemed fully healthy last season, Burrow performed well. Still, it was unexpected to see him level with a two-time MVP like Mahomes when odds first came out.
C.J. Stroud, QB, Houston Texans
- Opening odds: +1400
- Current odds: +1000
After winning the Offensive Rookie of the Year award last season, Stroud then saw his MVP odds receive an instant boost after the Houston Texans acquired Diggs in a trade with Buffalo. The Texans were a much better team than expected last season, and they seem to have only improved with offseason moves. Expectations are high for Stroud heading into his second NFL season, and the MVP odds have reflected that throughout most of the offseason.
Jordan Love, QB, Green Bay Packers
- Opening odds: +4000
- Current odds: +1400
No one in the top 10 has seen more dramatic line movement than Jordan Love. He opened well behind the front of the pack and stayed there until training camp got underway. But after Love signed a massive contract extension that will keep him in Green Bay for years to come, bettors seemed to sense some value in the young quarterback with a young team around him. The addition of RB Josh Jacobs seemed to help the Packers’ overall outlook, and Love will be entering his second full season at the helm in Green Bay after really appearing to gel with the offense late in the year.
Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
- Opening odds: +1300
- Current odds: +1400
Hurts opened well out of the top five after a season that saw his team implode late in the year. While Hurts and the Philadelphia “tush push” were an NFL sensation early on, the squad fell apart in the second half and ended with a whimper rather than a bang. Losing center Jason Kelce to retirement won’t help his offensive line, but Hurts squeaked back into the top five on the MVP odds board mainly by hardly ever budging in the betting lines. It’s not that his odds have improved so much as the rest of the field has dropped to meet him.
Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens
Opening odds: +1700
Current odds: +2000
Almost any other quarterback coming off a season in which he won the MVP title in a clear landslide vote would probably find himself higher in the running. But even after his second MVP in five years, Lamar Jackson never sniffed the top three on the odds board this offseason. Some of that likely has to do with doubts about the Baltimore Ravens as a team overall, as well as the difficulty of repeating in the MVP category. In the 21st century, only Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers have won back-to-back MVP awards
Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys
- Opening odds: +1800
- Current odds: +2000
The news about Prescott for most of the offseason primarily involved the question of a contract extension. With that still unresolved, even as the Cowboys came to terms with WR CeeDee Lamb, there are some questions about his future in Dallas. Still, the Cowboys were the best home team in the league last season, with Prescott playing a major role in that. He did a much better job of protecting the football, too, and expectations are high in Dallas this season.
Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins
- Opening odds: +1500
- Current odds: +2500
Tagovailoa charged to the top of the MVP odds board early last season after putting up some incredible offensive numbers in the first half. But the Miami Dolphins also had one of the easier schedules early on and struggled against good teams — especially on the road. Tagovailoa still has game-changing ability and some serious offensive weapons around him. He also signed a massive contract extension just before training camp, so the team will be expecting a lot out of him. Then again, that’s the exact position Lamar Jackson was headed into last year, and it resulted in an MVP season.
