The NFL again heads across the Atlantic for a game in London this week. This time, it’s the New York Jets taking on the Minnesota Vikings at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, with kickoff scheduled for 9:30 a.m. ET on Sunday, Oct. 6.
These international games introduce a whole different series of variables that can affect outcomes and individual performances. Below, we’ll look at what recent trends for NFL London games could have to tell us about the NFL Week 5 matchup between the Jets and Vikings.
NFL London history and trends
The NFL has been playing games in London since 2007. In that time, favorites have had the overall edge, winning 65.6% of the time. That’s right in line with the normal winning percentage for NFL favorites, which typically hovers around 66%.
Favorites in London games have also gone 17-16 against the spread. Similarly, the under has hit in 17 of the 33 London games.
Point totals for the last four NFL London games have come in under the lines that NFL betting sites have set, with an average point total of 43.5 in those last four games. It’s possible that teams are suffering from jet lag or the unfamiliar surroundings, and the result is lower offensive production.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct. 15, 2023 | Ravens 24, Titans 16 | Ravens -5.5 | 42.5 | Under |
| Oct. 8, 2023 | Jaguars 25, Bills 20 | Bills -4.5 | 48.5 | Under |
| Oct. 1, 2023 | Jaguars 23, Falcons 7 | Jaguars -3.5 | 42.5 | Under |
| Oct. 30, 2022 | Broncos 21, Jaguars 17 | Jaguars -1 | 40.5 | Under |
| Oct. 9, 2022 | Giants 27, Packers 22 | Packers -9 | 44 | Over |
Minnesota-New York player props
One interesting trend to watch is the performance of individual players in NFL London games. In the league’s last trip across the pond, both Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson and Tennessee Titans QB Ryan Tannehill posted somewhat lower numbers than usual.
Jackson finished with 223 passing yards, one TD, and one interception, slightly lower than his averages for the 2023 season. Tannehill logged just 76 passing yards, well under his average of 161.6 yards per game in 2023.
And while Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence had a solid second game in London last season, his first game there the prior week saw him fall well short of his 251-yard average for the 2023 season, throwing for just 207 yards with one TD.
This week’s London game pits a hot Minnesota Vikings team led by QB Sam Darnold, who’s averaging 233 yards per game with 2.75 TD passes through four undefeated outings. On the other side are the New York Jets, led by QB Aaron Rodgers, who’s averaging 212.3 yards per game through the air with just five TD passes in four games.
