The San Francisco 49ers open their season with a Monday Night Football matchup against the New York Jets, with kickoff scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET and ESPN on the broadcast.
This matchup has seen a lot of betting line movement over the course of the summer. The Niners opened as -6.5 favorites, and the spread was bet down to -3.5 due to news about Brandon Aiyuk and Trent Williams holding out, and Christian McCaffrey (calf) suffering a preseason injury. Following the extensions to Aiyuk and Williams, the line is back to -5.5 at most NFL sportsbooks. The over/under line has been bet down from 45.5 to 43.5 points.
49ers odds shifting as favorites over Jets ahead of Monday Night Football
Last year, Aaron Rodgers joined the Jets to give hope to a dejected fanbase, only to suffer an Achilles injury four snaps into his first series. With Rodgers reportedly healthy and an elite defense in place, the Jets (+180) are slightly favored to supplant the Bills (+195) as AFC East champions. The 49ers have made the NFC championship in four of the past five seasons and made the Super Bowl twice in that span. They’re the favorites to win the NFC this season, with an over/under of 11.5 wins.
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How the Jets could cover the spread
While Rodgers gives their offense a boost, the New York Jets were stronger on the defensive side of the ball last season. Their elite defensive line could cause problems for a 49ers offense that might have trouble getting in sync after Aiyuk, McCaffrey, and Williams all missed the majority of the preseason.
The Jets upgraded their offensive line by adding tackles Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses, which could help Rodgers offset his past issues with Nick Bosa and the 49ers’ pass rush. This is a relatively low total assigned to a primetime game, and those night games went under at a high rate during the first half of last season. The Jets are more likely to cover if the combined total stays under 43.5 points.
How the 49ers could win and cover the spread
Since they added McCaffrey in 2022, the San Francisco 49ers are 22-5 straight up and 17-10 against the spread in regular season matchups. Their biggest blips last season came during a three-game stretch without Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel. Their first 11 wins last season came by seven or more points. Simply put, this team has been dominant when healthy with Brock Purdy running Kyle Shanahan’s scheme. Even one of the best defenses in the NFL might be unable to contain this offense.
On the other side of the ball, Rodgers is 0-4 in the playoffs against the Niners and posted a modest 107.2 passer rating over his last five games in San Francisco when he was posting MVP-caliber numbers against most other opponents. The 49ers might have the most talented roster in football, and they’re very well coached.
